You keep looking at specific months and ignore the clearly obvious overall trend.
Consider the graph below. It uses the data from
Army Air Forces Statistical Digest — World War II.
The combined total of combat sorties in the ETO and MTO are shown in blue on the left axis, with the figures coming from Table 118. The combined total of losses to enemy fighters in the ETO and MTO are shown in red on the right axis, with the figures coming Table 159 and 160, respectively.
View attachment 712197
Notice how as the number of combat sorties rose, Luftwaffe fighters inflicted losses commensurate with that increase. Even with the sustained rise in combat sorties from October 1943 onward, losses to Luftwaffe fighters kept pace. The parallel between combat sorties and losses to enemy fighters up through April 1944 is clearly visible.
But look what happens after April 1944. Losses to Luftwaffe fighters don't just flat-line, they drop. Sharply. Losses to enemy fighters diverge dramatically from combat sorties. The ability of Luftwaffe fighters to shoot down U.S. aircraft declined markedly. Had the effectiveness seen previously continued, then in May 1944 the U.S. would have lost closer to 900 aircraft instead of the 499 which were actually shot down, and in June 1944 it would have lost in the area of 1,000 aircraft to enemy fighters instead of the 445 actually lost.
April 1944 was clearly the high-water mark of Luftwaffe fighter effectiveness. Afterward, its fortunes declined, with a clear downward trend for the remainder of the war.
While it never lost the ability to inflict losses on U.S. aircraft, the effectiveness at which Luftwaffe fighters could inflict such losses clearly fell.