A Victorious Luftstreitkräfte-Imperial German Aviation Development After WW1

[nuuumannn]

In 1908, seeking to allay British fears about Germany's naval build-up

Yet, Tirpitz' 1895 Risk Doctrine was aimed solely at overcoming the superiority of the Royal Navy over the new German fleet.

Britain did not have a mutual defense treaty with Belgium.

They had a sort of defence treaty though; the Treaty of London was a guarantee of Belgium's neutrality in that those signatories would go to its defence to maintain it. The British government stood by this as a pretext for entering the war. The argument about the injustice of Germany's decision to ignore Belgium and invade was also played upon in an emotional appeal to war.

From Wikipedia: "Under the treaty, the European powers recognised and guaranteed the independence and neutrality of Belgium and established the full independence of the German-speaking part of Luxembourg. Article VII required Belgium to remain perpetually neutral, and by implication committed the signatory powers to guard that neutrality in the event of invasion." My italics.

Noted historian A.J.P.Taylor asserts that; "They had gone to war for a cause - the neutrality and independence of 'Little Belgium'. Therefore the British talked, from the beginning, in idealistic terms. This was a 'war to end war'; to 'make the world safe for democracy'."

This is why I don't buy Niall Fergusson's assertion that Britain could have stayed out of the war. In the modern era, Britain couldn't stand back and allow Germany to rip through Europe.

A German victory would have refashioned the face of Europe, with the next big war likely to have been a clash between Germany and the rising tide of Communism in the east.

It was quite likely, since everyone hated the communists, but it might have resulted in another devastating war in Europe; again, no guarantees either way whether it would or wouldn't have led to a 'Second World War'. If Germany attempted to invade Russia in the years following WW1 if they won, I suspect the Russians wouldn't just beat them off at the border )), but head toward Berlin as they did historically - again, no telling what might happen.

 

[GrauGeist]

If a unified Europe, led by Imperial Germany turned on the Soviet Union, I suspect that Uncle Joe and his minions would have suffered a serious ass-kicking.

Germany would not have had all of it's resources stretched thin fighting (and securing) multiple fronts. It would have been able to marshall all of it's resources into one solid front and roll in from the west.

Also, I might add, that in this scenario, there would be no Hitler. Hitler was a result of a crushed and destitute people in the wake of the "Great War". If Imperial Germany (and the Austrian Empire) had been victorious, the NSDAP would have never gained any momentum. Who knows what the little Corporal would have done post-war, but I seriously doubt there would have been any beer hall speeches and similar shenanigans.

So without Hitler's intervention, the Imperial German General Staff might have actually been able to do what they knew best - fight a war.

 

[swampyankee]

The German Imperial Staff did such such a good job fighting a war that it didn't think that their actions would bring in the two largest economies, those of the US and the UK against them. Fighting wars and making enemies out of powerful neutrals. Great technique, that.

 

[The Basket]

The war was supposed to be short so long term strategic planning is what others did.
What did UK and USA do when WW2 ended? Cancelled contracts and designs and put future development on the back burner. So that is probably same here.
If Germany wins supposedly in first year does Russian Revolution happen? Or say say the French sue for peace so neither France or Germany lose? If the Roman empire endured would the Me 262 still fly in 1942?

 

[swampyankee]

The war was supposed to be short so long term strategic planning is what others did.
What did UK and USA do when WW2 ended? Cancelled contracts and designs and put future development on the back burner. So that is probably same here.
If Germany wins supposedly in first year does Russian Revolution happen? Or say say the French sue for peace so neither France or Germany lose? If the Roman empire endured would the Me 262 still fly in 1942?

Obviously not! The Romans wouldn't permit the Germans such a thing.

And the Teutons wouldn't have moved west and south; Atilla would have been stopped much farther east.

 

[GrauGeist]

The German Imperial Staff did such such a good job fighting a war that it didn't think that their actions would bring in the two largest economies, those of the US and the UK against them. Fighting wars and making enemies out of powerful neutrals. Great technique, that.

Ahh yes, quite right, I suppose that my saying that the German General staff was smarter than Hitler must have been in error.

 

[swampyankee]

Ahh yes, quite right, I suppose that my saying that the German General staff was smarter than Hitler must have been in error.

The problem with the German Imperial General Staff is their strategic view ended at the battlefield. The problem with Germany was that the staff was too dominant, and nobody could call them to heel. Hitler brought the general staff under his control, then made the same sort of strategic mistakes and added genocidal mania to the mix. His anti-communism and anti-Semitism probably made him seem much less of a threat.

 

[GrauGeist]

When Europe mobilized in WWI, the idea was to neutralize France as quick as possible and then turn to the east to counter the blow fom Russia that was to be expected.

It was a sound idea and made sense, because Germany did not want to be caught inbetween two armies. The execution didn't go as planned, but what else was Germany to do? The pre-emptive move was an effort to at least even the odds.

Interestingly enough, Germany nearly ran the same gameplan in WWII...

 

[soulezoo]

There is ample evidence to suggest that France was begging for retribution over the Franco-Prussian war and colluded with the Russians to provide that two front war. Combine this with a Kaiser that seemed to be itching to flex his military muscle somehow. And an arrogant Austria-Hungary... There's also evidence (not suggesting proof) that Russia "fired the first shots" and had mobilized and step foot over German territory first giving Germany the pretext it needed to spring into action as GG notes above.

 

[SpicyJuan11]

Hello everyone, sorry for coming back so late. Looks like I should expand more on the setting of the mod.

On what premise could the German Empire win WW1?

The POD is that the Lusitania never sank and unrestricted submarine warfare is never adopted by Germany. The timeline is available here:
https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/foru...iserreich-timeline-our-official-canon.504384/

In regards to the bolded part. In this alternate universe does Poland not exist? Has France moved further away from Rhine or where is the German/French border. Has England moved?
Ranges of fighters and bombers are often dependent on Geography. European fighters had short range because potential enemies really were not all that far away and range was sacrificed for performance.
Japan developed long range fighters for several reasons. For one it is over 1100 miles from the tip of the South Island to the tip of the North Island or greater than the distance from Copenhagen to Naples or about the Distance from Bristol to Brest-Belarus.
Throw in the Japanese possessions in the Pacific (granted some ex German Islands) and the distances involved in China and Manchuria and it is little wonder that the Japanese were designing for long range and sacrificing some other things to get it.

A lot of development was based on what did expected opponents have or were developing. Sort of keeping up with the Jones's.
The twin engine multi place "fighter" was popular in a number of countries for a few years in the 1930s. Turns out none of them would perform as claimed/hoped against singe engine fighters.

It doesn't matter what kind of bureaucracy is involved, weapons requirements (aircraft, artillery, ships) are driven by real needs. They may be shaded by ideology a bit.

Here is a map of Europe:

The Commune of France, Union of Britain, and SRI are all "Syndicalist" (Commies), National France is the exiled French government and is part of an alliance with Canada (the exiled British government) and the remains of the Commonwealth, while Austria (with Bohemia, Hungary, and the Italian Federation are non-aligned). The Baltic Duchy, Flanders-Wallonia, Lithuania, Ruthenia, and the Ukraine are under the German sphere. Germany is a massive but declining world empire. Russia and the USA both end up in civil wars who can turn communists or remain neutral.
Here is the world map as well:

So, what are everyone's thoughts?

 

[Elmas]

That, in this scenario, is missing just a thing: a Martian invasion...

 

[GrauGeist]

That, in this scenario, is missing just a thing: a Martian invasion...

The Deathstar and the Battlestar Galactica would intercepted and crushed the incoming Martians - that's why they aren't included in this scenario...

 

[SpicyJuan11]

That, in this scenario, is missing just a thing: a Martian invasion...

Even if so, this is simply the setting for an extremely popular mod tbh and thus irrelevant

 

[parsifal]

One of the great myths of history was that the loss of the LUSITANIA was pivotal to the entry of the US into the war. It was a significant event, but it was just a symptom of a bigger malaise that drew the US inexorably into the war. There were a number of overt decisions made by the Germans that led to the US entry, and at the top of that list was the German decision to unleash unrestricted mercantile warfare on all shipping within a declared area, and then after a short break 9brought about by a number of sinkings of US ships in 1915-16, to fall into the same trap and do it all again in 1917.


Coupled with several other events, most notably the Zimmerman affair. This enraged the US public, and after its release in March 1917 led to the US DoW in April.


Zimmerman demonstrates that the Germans were prepared to risk war with the US, they found it necessary to take this risk because of the effect the US was having on Allied capabilities. US supplies including foodstuffs were pouring into the Allied nations, US ships were transporting imperial supplies and manpower, and these acts of clearly pro-allied actions was having a marked effect on the Allies strength. Vast amount of manpower, vast amounts of mechanisation and war making supplies were entering France and Britain. The Germans were reaching desperation point and needed to stop this flow of supplies whatever the cost. All this talk about the germans not having a Navy and Britain not acting in a similar way to the US if she remained neutral is conveniently ignoring the fact that the germans simply had to take drastic action at sea to try and snatch victory, or least avoid collapse in the war.


Moreover the scenario is simply a Germanophile wet dream in which the known Allied (particularly British) reactions to German aggression , or if you prefer German attempts to control Europe would simply be allowed to happen. Everything about British foreign policy and past aggression suggests the opposite.


The scenario is not a serious investigation into alternate history. It's a fantasy, devised by a mind lacking any real grasp of real world events and disinterested in applying event modelling in any rational or supported way. As some have suggested, you might as well introduce a martian invasion or star wars style attack. As a wargamer myself, ive seen this sort of "wet dream" event modelling so many times before, and its embarrassing to be honest.

 

[SpicyJuan11]

Moreover the scenario is simply a Germanophile wet dream in which the known Allied (particularly British) reactions to German aggression , or if you prefer German attempts to control Europe would simply be allowed to happen. Everything about British foreign policy and past aggression suggests the opposite.

Did you read the timeline I posted by any chance?

The scenario is not a serious investigation into alternate history. It's a fantasy, devised by a mind lacking any real grasp of real world events and disinterested in applying event modelling in any rational or supported way. As some have suggested, you might as well introduce a martian invasion or star wars style attack. As a wargamer myself, ive seen this sort of "wet dream" event modelling so many times before, and its embarrassing to be honest.

Kaiserreich is by no means a Germanwank, it is likely the most popular mod ever created for any Paradox game. Kaiserreich is also by no means an intellectual counter-factual more like a very interesting Turtledove-ish mod which has successfully crafted a narrative.

 

[parsifal]

I will have another read and get back if it changes my opinion.

 

[nuuumannn]

If a unified Europe, led by Imperial Germany turned on the Soviet Union

At the time of the Great War there was no such thing as a Unified Europe - how could there be? France was still smarting after the Franco Prussian war. A pipe dream and the divisions within the nations in continental Europe were very deep. Beating Russia might seem a pushover, but the Russians have the ability to absorb massive amounts of punishment, losses over time, yet still bounce back. Not to mention that crossing into Russia has been the thing that has defeated armies in the past. Rule Number One in a European War; Don't Invade Russia.

 

[GrauGeist]

If, according to this "what if", Imperial Germany won WWI, then much of Europe would be under German rule - hence "unified".

Russia dropped out of the war and went through it's political upheaval while the war raged in Europe. Regardless of who won (Central powers or Allies), Russia was still going to end up under Communist control.

 

[swampyankee]

Unimpressed. The US was not at a risk for communism, nor was the UK. Syndicalism.was a fascist model; communism was defeated in Germany more by social security and national healthcare than the secret police.

 

[parsifal]

Did you read the timeline I posted by any chance?

This is the list Ive seen. Ive rated events either a (+) (pro-allied) or (-) (pro-German) on a scale of 1 to 10 for each event. A 0 is neutral. Comments where I think appropriate

Here is my take on the event timeline

1914
While visiting Sarajevo on the 28th of June, Archduke Franz Ferdinand is assasinated by Serb nationalist Gavrilo Princip. In a reaction Austria-Hungary sends an ultimatum to Serbia, whose contents are deliberately made unacceptable to the Serbs. Austria-Hungary declare war on Serbia shortly after receiving German backing. Russia in turn declares war on Austria-Hungary and Germany, dragging its ally France, waiting for an opportunity to reclaim Alsace-Lorraine, into the war too.

Rating: (0)

Comments; None

When Germany invades neutral Belgium to execute the Schlieffen-plan the British Empire declares war on Germany. The German advance to Paris is halted at the Marne and a series of flanking attempts, known as the Race to the Sea, prove unsuccesful. The war in the West grinds down to a halt.

Rating: (0)

Comments; None

The Germans are much more successful in the East, repulsing the Russian invasion of East Prussia and defeating the Russians at the battles of the Mazurian Lakes and at Tannenberg. The architects of these victories, Field Marshall Hindenburg and general Ludendorff would play key roles in the final German victory.

Rating: (0)

Comments; Ive assigned zero bias here, bvut the battles mentioned were tactical victories only with not strategic importance whatsoever. I suspect the designer is going to make something out of nothing judging from the tone

The Ottoman Empire joins the Central Powers later in the year, after a dispute with Britain about the confiscation of ships being built for the Empire.

Almost all German colonies are occupied before the end of the year, besides German East-Africa. Here general Von Lettow-Vorbeck will play a game of cat and mouse with the allied forces until the end of the war.


Rating: (-1)

Comments; the reasons given for Turkish entry are a construct, designed to give greater weight to a pro-German bias than really existed. Turkish entry with the central Powers was about protecting Turkish access to industrialised Europe and garnering support with whoever was interested. There were only two nations that fitted this, one was Germany the other Russia. Britain showed a distinct lack of interest in any alliance The GOEBEN and BRESLAU incident were a bi-product, not a cause of this maneuvering.

1915

In the West the lines remain static, but the fighting increases in brutality, with chlorine gas being first used during the Second battle of Ypres on 22th of April.

In the East Russia is being pushed back by the Germans, but manages to hold on to Galicia.

Rating: (0)

Comments; none

Bulgaria joins the war on the side of the Central Powers and Serbia becomes the first allied nation to be defeated. Italy joins the war on the allied side, hoping to claim the Austro-Hungarian Illyrian provinces. The campaign bogs down to trench warfare.

In an ill concieved effort to knock the Ottomans out of the War, allied troops land near Gallipoli, hoping to gain control of the vital Dardanelles. The whole campaign becomes a disaster and the allies will pull back their forces before the year ends. A British invasion on Mesopotamia is repelled and the remaining troops retreat to Kut, where the disastrous siege of Kut will start.

Rating: (0)

Comments; None


A German submarine sinks the Lusitania. A severe backlash in the United States leads to Germany abandoning its unrestricted submarine warfare, which had hoped to strangle Britain into submission. Many speculated that a continuation of the unrestricted submarine warfare could have led to the entry of the United States into the war.

Rating: (0)

Comments; None


1916

The battle of Verdun starts, attempting to bleed the French army dry. In reality all sides bleed equally in a battle which soon loses its military objective. A similar attempt the British forces at the Somme has the same outcome. 1916 also saw the first use of tanks at the battle of Cambrai.

In the East the Brusilov offensive is launched. While very succesful at first, the offensive doesn't manage to either knock the Austro-Hungarians out of the war, or drive Germany from Russian Poland.

Rating: (-5)

Comments; Fails to understand the significance of Brusilove in a crucial way. Brusilov was the direct reason for the Germans abandoning Verdun and later rationailsing their lines in front of the Somme. The comments fail to understand allied reasoning behind the attrition battles. They were just that, designeed to bleed the Germans white of manpower, in the knowledge that the allies could lose several times as many as the Germans and still count it as a win

The British troops at Kut are forced to surrender, dealing a heavy blow to British prestige. The Ottomans are being pushed out of the Caucasus and Armenia by a succesful Russian campaign. The Sharif of Mecca starts of a general Arab revolt against the Turks.

Rating: (-4)

Comments; Does not acknowledge the Central powers defeat at Romani and the successful defence of Sinai/Suez by the Australian Light Horse and others. This was in fact the turning point of the war in the middle east

At sea the First Battle of Jutland ends in a tactical German victory, but a strategic British victory, as the Hochseeflotte will remain in port until late 1918.

Rating: (-6)

Comments; It was more than just a mere containment of the German Fleet though that was the immediate effect. In fact the "draw" at Jutland was a direct link to revolution and defeat in Germany. Her people starving as a result of the British blockade, unable to challenge that blockade and isolated by their guerre De course campaigns. This was a major reason for German defeat

Romania tries to profit from Austrian setbacks and invades Transsylvania. German assistance would lead to a quick collapse of Romania, with Bucarest being taken by August von Mackensen within the year. Further south the allies have taken positions around Salonica.

Rating: (-1)

Comments; Comments about allied positions being limited to Salonika are inaccurate. In fact several French formations are being used to stiffen the Serbian 1st army positions to the west and ensuring the secondary transport lines are firmly anchored. To the East of Salonika, Greek formations are busy defeating in detail the combined Bulgarian/German formations (mostly Bulgarian 2nd and 4th armies, whilst only the german 11th army is facing the main allied positions at Salonika. Far from being in a position to attack, the Gerams are in real trouble with inadequate communications , terrible terrain and vastly outnumbered.

1917

In Germany chancellor Von Bethmann-Hollweg is forced to resign, being replaced by Georg Michaelis. It was soon clear that Michaelis was little more than a puppet for Hindenburg and Ludendorff.

On the Western front the heavy French casualties at Chemin des Dames lead to a strike among the French soldiers. This would paralyze the French Army until the end of the year, giving Germany a chance to recover from the Brusilov Offensive.

Rating: (-8)

Comments; This is grossly inaccurate. Far from Paralysing the French, which suggests the French army could no longer be relied upon, it in fact was more that the French high command is forced to avoid any significant offemsive action until they have reconfigured their techniques. The Anzac contingent, followed by the Canadians will show them how to get more from the heavy casualties than is currently the case.

Manpower shortages in the German army lead to further withdrawals of the German army

Russia collapses into anarchy, with the Czar abdicating early 1917. A provisional government is formed under Alexandr Kerensky, but this government was overthrown by Lenins Bolshevists in november 1917, starting the Russian Civil War.

In Italy the Caporetto Offensive beats the Italians back to the Piave river, where a last minute defence saves Venice in the nick of time.

Rating: (0)

Comments; None

The Ottomans receive blow after blow, with both Baghdad and Jeruzalem being lost to British forces.

Rating: (0)

Comments; None

(Special Note) missing from this years event timeline is the entry of the US and the re-commencement of the German unrestricted U-Boat offensive. It's a massive omission either way, with no explanation given as to what the consequences are. Lets assume there is no commencement of U-boat attacks. Immediately strengthens the British/Commonwealth and French forces by about a million men each, provides vital equipment for the minor allies including Italy and Greece and allows the RN to complete the four or five dreadnoughts currently on hold due to steel shortages

Rating: (-10) (should be more)

Comments; see above

1918

In early january the Peace of Brest-Litovsk is signed between the Germans and the Bolsheviks, freeing thouzands of German and Austrian troops. The Bolsheviks turn over Finland, the Baltics, Belarus and Ukraine to the Germans.

Rating: (0)

Comments; I don't enough about the Baltic states or Finland after the defeat of Russia, For the Ukraine, temporary relief by the wholesale confiscation of the grain harvest by the germans gave them temporary respite from the famine afflicting Germany at that time, but by the latter half of 1918, german forces were withdrawing as elements of the "Green army" began harrying them mercilessly in the eastern parts of the new nation.

A great allied spring offensive, designed at breaking the Germans before their reinforcements arrive, is being repulsed at great cost of life.

Rating: (-10)

Comments; There was no great allied spring offensive planned or implemented until after the French were deemed recovered and tactics fully reviewed. It would be July before the first baby steps by the allied offensive following the defeat of the new infiltration tactics by new allied methods pioneered by men like Monash who emphasized all arms co-operation and detailed planning wherever possible. By the end of the german offensives in July, the German army lay prostrate, defeated and exhausted, just in time for the 100 days offensive.

Operation Teutoberg is launched, attempting to kick Greece out of the war. Instead of assaulting the Salonica stronghold head on, the Central Powers make extensive use of specialized stormtroopers and so called infiltration tactics. The defenders at Salonica are pinned down while the rest of the Central forces sweep through Greece. Athens falls on july 3rd, causing the Greek government to surrender. The forces at Salonica are evacuated soon afterwards.

Rating: (-8)

Comments; My best guess is that this "event" is on the assumption that the germans remain on the defensive in the west for the time being. It has numerous problems. It assumes that the logistic situation in the Balkans could support significantly higher levels of operation when it cant. It assumes that the Salonika bridgehead can be bypassed when substantially it cant. It assumes no theatre reserves that the allies could call on, and assumes that there would be no reinforcement and re-equipment of the the TO as a result of the Germans not restarting their U-Boat attacks. It fails to give any consideration of the fighting qualities of the greeks themselves, or the terrain that the Central powers would need to fight.

General Allenby manages to pull of the last great allied victory of the war, encircling and destroying large parts of the Ottoman Army and conquering Damascus. Only the las minute arrival of two German divisions in Asia Minor prevent an invasion of Anatolia.

Rating: (-6)

Comments; It was certainly possible for the Germans to provide some assistance to the turks, but the turks were spontaneously combusting in that theatre by then and the new german forces arriving lkacked experience in the Desert. The allied formations by this were by this time enhanced with experience and had sevreral times since romani routed german forces sent to propr up the turks.


The successful allied tactics against the German u-boats and the bloccade of Germany itself leads to a desperate sally of the Hochseeflotte, now led by admiral Hipper. The Second Battle of Jutland ends in a tie, but the shock of being assaulted forces the Royal Navy to break their blocade. The end of the blocade and the influx of Ukranian grain ends all fears of Germany being starved into submission.

Rating: (-10)

Comments; The RN Battleship fleet had expanded to 36, including the R and Queen Elizabeth classes. There would be more if the U-boats were not active. Against this the German fleet stood virtually no chance in 1918. There is no basis to support the notion that the RN would abandon the blockade. This would be about the last thing they would do, even if faced with the most dire situation on the continent. , and

Final bias ratings
1914: (-1)
1915: (0)
1916: (-16)
1917: (-18)
1918: (-34)

In other words a heavily biased set of assumptions in favour of Germany

Final comments
I gave up at this point it is obvious the scenario is hopelessly biased . there are increasingly shrill and improbable pro-German assumptions, and not one counterbalancing assumption to balance it up. As I said, a Germanophile wet dream designed by a person with virtually no understanding of the real situation that faced the protagonists