"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (3 Viewers)

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Nice! Let's now take a detailed look at the next significant target on the way to Melitopol, the Russian-fortified town of Tokmak.


I wonder if the UAF will fight for Tokmak in a Stalingrad (or Bakhmut) like meat grinder, or encircle the town, neutralize its offensive capability through bombardment and starvation, and carry on to Melitopol. The risk of the latter is that with a Russian-held Tokmak in its rear Ukraine's own logistics train is at greater risk of being cut off, whereas an UAF-held Tokmak could serve as a forward logistics hub to support the Melitopol operation.
 
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If Ukraine forces surround and bypass Tokmak, there's not much the Red Army can do, but be spectators from their positions.

If they try and peek their heads out, stationed Ukraine elements will poke at them.
Ukraine is gaining momentum, I seriously doubt that getting mired down in a door-to-door brawl is part of their plans.
 
Not when they include war criminals. Zelenskyy wouldn't survive the scandal.
Any member of Wagner Group found on Ukraine proper has an extremely low life expectancy.

If they join the Free Russian partisans, they'll have to operate from Belarus or Russia itself or risk a necktie party.
 

Look at the road-net; it's scanty. Encirclement will be tough and costly. It looks like the best move is to skirt Tokmak by following the P37 highway, cutting it from the east, and thereby forcing a retreat onto Melitopol. Getting behind that retreat would require a serious off-road effort, which might work. Perhaps work around the Russian left flank and build up a little, and only then cut the communications to the east.

Ukraine cannot afford another meatgrinder.
 
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Any member of Wagner Group found on Ukraine proper has an extremely low life expectancy.

If they join the Free Russian partisans, they'll have to operate from Belarus or Russia itself or risk a necktie party.

There's that, too. But first, being Russian, I'm sure they will be vetted. And then imprisoned.
 
Sadly, I don't think they survived the last meatgrinder.
 

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