"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

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Assuming the US remains pro-Ukraine post-Nov 2024, I expect the Ukrainian offensive will come in spring 2025, with Crimea being retaken before end of 2026.
 
That sounds too optimistic to me. I think this war will drag on for another 10 years or so until the Russian government find an excuse to withdraw.

I don't think it's either-or. Russia losing Crimea need not mean the end of the war; indeed, I believe that such an embarrassment would make Russia that much more determined to keep fighting.

I suspect the war will last as long as Putin lasts.
 

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