"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

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DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
Agreed. He knows that NATO was never a threat to invade Russia. He also knows he has all the power and can practically do what he wants because NATO will not risk Nuclear War. I fear for Latvia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Finland, etc.
Click to expand...
If he attacks any of those NATO countries the west will need to go to war, if only to expel the Russians from NATO territory. And can you imagine the Russian military trying to invade Poland in the same condition and skill it invade Ukraine? That forty mile convoy? NATO air forces will chew it to bits. Abrams, Leo IIs and Challenger 2s will mop up the rest. I am surprised Canada hasn't dispatched its Leo IIs to the CAF force in Latvia - they're doing us no good here. I wouldn't want to be flying a forty year old CF-18 against the latest VVS fighters though.
 

After his army's showing in Ukraine, any attack on NATO would have to involve WMDs for the Russians to have a chance, I believe -- especially after reading the article about Russian logistics linked upthread.

Were it not for nuclear arms, I'd almost welcome this as a way to remove him from power.
 

Unless NATO backs down to prevent Nuclear War. Unlikely, but who is who is more likely to not back down because he has less to lose?

You seem to think that 40 mile convoy is the entire Russian military. The vast majority of his forces (better equipped and trained regulars) are held in reserve incase NATO enters. All of that is backed with 6000 nuclear warheads and a madman who cannot back down
 
CF-18s would fare quite well against their Russian opponents.
They have the latest electronics, they have top-notch maintenance and their pilots have considerable stick time with constant flight excersizes.

Also, if the CF-18 were to be pitched against Russian forces, they would not be doing it alone.
 

Ding, ding, ding. The writing is all over the wall, and that's what makes this so dangerous. The west has no desire to use WMDs, but Putin has no problems. Its everything or nothing for him.
 
Agreed with both the posts above. I sure don't underestimate the carnage that would ensue from a Russo-NATO conflict, but dispatching the Russian reserves against a NATO country would strip Russia of freedom of operational action in Ukraine and force them to commit an occupation force against an insurgency that is certain to arise there.

It would, I think, be a bigger blunder than the invasion of Ukraine is itself, with little promise of success while removing any possibility of the Ukrainian invasion being a short, sharp, action.
 

I agree completely it would be a blunder. I just question whether Putin thinks NATO will bluff and then he does something stupid. I think he thinks he has nothing to lose.
 
Following President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, a sweeping wave of sanctions by the European Union and the U.S. has combined with an exodus of foreign companies and investors, leaving Russia more isolated and economically restricted.

[...]

The value of the ruble has plummeted to a record low, less than 1 cent, as many people watched their savings erode in Monday's free-fall of the Moscow stock exchange. The indexes remained closed as of Wednesday.

The Russian Central Bank more than doubled its key interest rate to 20%, after the U.S. and allies froze much of its foreign reserves that would normally be used to prop up the ruble. Last week, Moscow Times correspondents reported that Moscow banks and ATMs were no longer doling out euros and dollars. They remain in short supply.

The Kremlin has in turn banned all Russians from transferring foreign currency abroad and ordered exporters to exchange 80% of their foreign currency proceeds for rubles.

[...]

Many people in Russia who work for foreign companies have been anxious about being able to receive pay, as the first batch of key Russian banks has been booted from the interbank SWIFT system to target oil and gas profits. A similar anxiety has spread to those outside Russia who receive payments from within the country — for instance, for remote tutoring or freelance work.

Read more:

How everyday Russians are feeling the impact from sanctions

Rising prices, stranded tourists and lines at ATMs are just some of the ways ordinary Russians are seeing repercussions from sanctions and restrictions imposed on their country for invading Ukraine.
www.npr.org

The demand that exporters turn over 80% of foreign currency for rubles is really going to hurt those companies, given that this forces them to incur huge losses against planned income. How many workers will show up for work when each ruble is now only worth one penny?

I'm betting hyperinflation sets in unless the government enforces draconian measures to stop it.
 
DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
I always get a kick on social media when people are so quick to scream for war. It's like "there is a recruiting office down the street guys. I'm sure the Marines or Army would love to have you."

Click to expand...

Closely followed by "The West should do something!" Do what, exactly?

I understand the frustration many feel but the available options are limited and to do anything militarily would risk significant escalation. Is that REALLY what people want to see? A war that's relatively contained for now spreading throughout Europe and the world? Not sure that's the right answer to this thorny problem.

NATO's fundamental problem is that it CANNOT be seen as stretching beyond its self-defensive mandate. Doing that would give Putin all the evidence he needs to say "See? I told you so. NATO is an aggressive threat." Nor can NATO member nations act unilaterally because, again, it gifts Putin a propaganda coup.

It's an ugly, gnarly problem with few good options for defusing the situation.
 
DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
I agree completely it would be a blunder. I just question whether Putin thinks NATO will bluff and then he does something stupid. I think he thinks he has nothing to lose.
Click to expand...

I hope you're wrong. In any case, he will have to act before sanctions cripple Russia's ability to conduct war, which is the most-expensive human endeavor outside of perhaps space exploration/operations.
 
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