Except the loudest aren't your open mouth basement dwellers, its your camo wearing, yeti cup drinking, Ford-50000000 driving guys that are the loudest. Their also the "I would have served, but didn't…" crowd.
"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)
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Except the loudest aren't your open mouth basement dwellers, its your camo wearing, yeti cup drinking, Ford-50000000 driving guys that are the loudest. Their also the "I would have served, but didn't…" crowd.
buffnut453
Captain
Methinks you and I are probably on the same page....but let's leave it there.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
True enough. That discussion is going on in US gov't circles according to an article I read this morning ... their term is "Putin's Corner".
It boils down to whether he thinks he can win out before the sanctions really bite, or not -- and what he, or the Russian populace, will do once the sanctions really start to hurt.
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buffnut453
Captain
Well, if things do turn nasty and we all get vaporized, at least we can console ourselves in the knowledge that we maintained the moral high ground....right?
With Putin implementing laws that imprison anyone for spreading "fake news" (oh, how I HATE that term!), here are some first-hand experiences that demonstrate the power of Russian propaganda:
Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won’t believe me'
These Ukrainians say their Russian relatives only trust the narratives they see on TV at home.www.bbc.com
I saw an interview with a Russian woman. She was asked if she knows whats happening in Ukraine. She said she had heard the reports, but does not know whether to believe it because its you know fake news.
The word has become a buzz word for "The news is going against what I have been told to believe, and therefore it is fake." Uggghhh
Anyhow, I won't go down that rabbit hole.
I am trying to get my head around the situation between our "support" for Ukraine and the "crippling sanctions" against Russia. On the one hand were trying to get Javelins and other supplies into Ukraine without directly provoking Putin, but on the other hand were still buying Russian oil with U.S. dollars at $100+ per barrel. Now I think Nancy Pelosi is a complete moron, but even today she realized that was bad policy. Also, the exchange rate today for dollars to rubles was 1:121, and considering the tens of billions of petrodollars he compiled over the last year as oil prices rose, did we give Putin more purchasing power to fund the war by devaluing the ruble? I know a devalued ruble will have severe consequences for Russia's economy and people, but Putin doesn't give a shit about that. I'm suspicious of any effect sanctions will have. Just curious to know what you guys think.
Well what do you propose? I ask because I honestly don't know the solution.
We can't go to war. Sanctions are our only option. They are a doubled edged sword.
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I guess people never got the memo: Biden stopped the flow of money into Russia. It doesn't matter if a tanker shows up with Russian oil, the Russians are not getting paid for it.
The US buys very little Russian petroleum. Most of our imports are products (i.e. stuff that comes from refineries). And how much of that is then re-exported I do not know, but US exports of petroleum products is almost as large as our imports.
It's very similar to the talks about the pipeline from Canada that was going to help our "energy independence" when 90% of that really poor quality oil from sand is sold to China.
buffnut453
Captain
It's less about the US and more about Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas. I know moves are afoot to secure oil from other locations. For example, Algeria has offered to increase production. I wonder if North Sea oil production could also be increased. I doubt those 2 measures alone will be enough...but every barrel that's bought from a country other than Russia helps tighten the financial screws on the Putin regime. Now...(and I mean this quite literally, folks) let's hope we don't screw them too tightly.
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Thumpalumpacus
Major
Given that Russian oil and gas companies will be forced to turn over 80% of their dollars into rubles, thereby essentially negating about 80% of any profits, Putin will in the short term gain more dollars into government coffers to spend on the international market -- to companies that will do business with him, that is.
In the meantime, the companies selling energy on the open market will have their profit-margins squeezed very tightly and struggle to stay afloat. And any company going under will by default reduce the ability of Russians to capture foreign currency, by dint of less exports.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Most of our petroleum imports are actually crude drawn to America for refining purposes and thereafter exported again, as refined products, at a profit.
I don't think we import much Russian crude for this purpose, as the Russians have large refineries capable of processing their own uptake. Most of what we import, refine, and then re-export is from Canada and Mexico/SouthAmerica, as well as Saudi Arabia.
From domestic production, we can right about cover daily domestic needs. Most of our imports come in for processing and re-export rather than satisfying daily national needs.
I don't have a solution because I'm not sure my assessment is even correct. I was just kinda thinking out loud, but I do believe we're not really impacting his ability to fight the war. The sanctions so far seem to be intended to generate political pressure on Putin, which I do not believe he cares about, or cause a coup. While that would be great, I think the fear of failure and the consequences of that failure will prevent that from occurring. I do not think a Brutus will emerge anytime soon. And I agree with you Lindsey Graham is an idiot. But, I think a good start might be to stop buying his most valued commodity (a global embargo would ideal) and lower the global price of oil by producing it again here in the U.S. and making some type of deal with the Middle East producers. We only import about 7% of our oil from Russia, roughly 500,000 barrels a year. Increasing our production levels would help if we cut that off
We are not impacting his ability in the short term, but we are impacting the long-term by tanking his economy and production. You can't wage war if you can't produce.
And secondly his people will suffer, and hopefully they will revolt. Hopefully before he does something stupid.
As for stopping to buy his oil, all the oil company's are pulling out of Russia. His ability to produce and ship it is faltering.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
That is all the sanctions are designed to do. They can't and won't impede ongoing military ops for some time to come, assuming Russia has laid in reserves of vital materials, which is my understanding.
I doubt that will happen. The Saudis are preventing OPEC from increasing daily production, keeping prices up; but most American oil production nowdays (56% or so the last time I read) is from fracking or refining sand-oils (i.e. "tight oil"), which doesn't turn a profit above ~$45/bbl or so. Now, oil is at ~$110/bbl right now, but the low prices over the last three-four years have seen frackers etc go bust in America the last four years or so, and it will take some time to restart those ops.
Saudis can pull a profit at $12-14/bbl because their oil is easy to get at. The Russians need about $30/bbl to come out ahead, but with sanctions in place that number will surely rise.
If we go that route, Americans must be ready for $6/gal for gas, for the reasons given above.
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Thumpalumpacus
Major
Right, that is the race, and why "Putin's Corner" is a concern in the higher echelons of American government. Might we push him into something drastic?
Escuadrilla Azul
Tech Sergeant
- 1,614
- Feb 27, 2020
That is the part missing in autocracies, seldom could one speak freely (as
SaparotRob
said, once at most) not only for fear of reprisals, also because you are in the same mindset than the others in the room.As they say, for a hammer everything is a nail.
Glider
Captain
I do agree with this as stated in the past tense. However even the most amateur warrior can look at the huge logjams of equipment many miles long and imagine what a co-ordinated airstrike would do to them.
In the present tense, he and his generals may well now be afraid of Nato as literally the war on Ukraine could be over in a day. The one thing that NATO is well equipped for, and has a lot of experience in, is ground attack.
The follow up of course is the real risk of a nuclear response, which is probably the only thing that's stopping such an airstrike.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
That is the part missing in autocracies, seldom could one speak freely (as
As they say, for a hammer everything is a nail.
Exactly. Putin is in the claws of Maslow's Hammer.
