"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)

[Thumpalumpacus]

Closely followed by "The West should do something!" Do what, exactly?

I understand the frustration many feel but the available options are limited and to do anything militarily would risk significant escalation. Is that REALLY what people want to see? A war that's relatively contained for now spreading throughout Europe and the world? Not sure that's the right answer to this thorny problem.

NATO's fundamental problem is that it CANNOT be seen as stretching beyond its self-defensive mandate. Doing that would give Putin all the evidence he needs to say "See? I told you so. NATO is an aggressive threat." Nor can NATO member nations act unilaterally because, again, it gifts Putin a propaganda coup.

It's an ugly, gnarly problem with few good options for defusing the situation.

Spot-on. If y'all will pardon my language, it's a shit-sandwich and there's no way around eating it, bite-by-bite, at this point ... unless we want to see a general and perhaps a nuclear war.

 

[SaparotRob]

I hope you're wrong. In any case, he will have to act before sanctions cripple Russia's ability to conduct war, which is the most-expensive human endeavor outside of perhaps space exploration/operations.

Problem is, while you are rational, Vlad the Impaler isn't.

 

[buffnut453]

Putin - Rasputin.
There are very close similarities .................

But Rasputin was a lover...of the Russian queen. YOU ASKED--NAY BEGGED--FOR THIS>>>

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Problem is, while you are rational, Vlad the Impaler isn't.

I don't know that he's irrational. It may be that his premises are flawed. I don't doubt that there are military leaders in Russia telling him the same things I'm mentioning here. I mean, if some Internet idiot like me can see the problems, no doubt they can too, and much more clearly.

They know the bind they're in better than any of us, and I'm pretty sure they're just as accustomed to and fond of breathing as we are.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

But Rasputin was a lover...of the Russian queen. YOU ASKED FOR THIS>>>

There must be something in the forum's rules against a post like this!

 

[buffnut453]

There must be something in the forum's rules against a post like this!

Hey....at least I'm "entertaining"!

 

[Admiral Beez]

One thing I keep remembering is NEVER underestimate your opponent.

I think the first step there is ALWAYS understand your opponent. Hitler didn't bother to confirm how many tanks, planes and men the Soviets had before invading. Tojo didn't bother to understand how American might personally and industrially react to Pearl Harbour. Putin didn't bother to check the potential staying power and will of Ukraine's people.

It's not that hard to understand your opponent, but first you must park your own hubris, ego and especially confirmation bias. This requires you to listen to others with an open mind, trust the expertise of others, but first your advisors must feel free to speak without fear.

 

[SaparotRob]

Putin's advisors are free to speak their minds, once.

 

[Greg Boeser]

I always get a kick on social media when people are so quick to scream for war. It's like "there is a recruiting office down the street guys. I'm sure the Marines or Army would love to have you."

Don't be so sure. I know that recruiting and retention is always a problem, and the US military has really loosened the physical and mental standards of late, but, we don't need any mouth-breathing basement-dwellers. Present company excluded, of course.

 

[Admiral Beez]

....we don't need any mouth-breathing basement-dwellers. Present company excluded, of course.

Indeed, my keriorrhea and ozostomia would keep me out of the forces.

 

[wlewisiii]

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Hey....at least I'm "entertaining"!

"Entertaining" as in fapping with sandpaper?

This could probably do better in the "modern music" thread ... though Boney M was cutting a path for crappy music long ago ...

 

[wlewisiii]

It reminds me of the outsized impact the Sagger AT3 had on "the initial phases of the Yom Kippur War.[9] Later in the war, the Israelis adopted new tactics and learned to neutralize the Sagger threat by employing large concentrations of artillery fire to either distract or kill the Sagger operators.[9] Other improvised methods used by the Israelis to defeat the Saggers involved firing in front of the tank to create dust, moving back and forth and firing at the source of Sagger fire.[10] These Israeli tactics were later adopted by NATO forces to counter the threat posed by Warsaw Pact ATGMs.[10] In total, Saggers knocked out more than 800 Israeli tanks and other combat vehicles during the war.[11]" <a href="9M14 Malyutka - Wikipedia">9M14 Malyutka</a>

The key difference seems to be that the Imperial Russian Army doesn't appear to be able to come up with counter tactics as the Israeli Army was.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I think the first step there is ALWAYS understand your opponent. Hitler didn't bother to confirm how many tanks, planes and men the Soviets had before invading. Tojo didn't bother to understand how American might personally and industrially react to Pearl Harbour. Putin didn't bother to check the potential staying power and will of Ukraine's people.

It's not that hard to understand your opponent, but first you must park your own hubris, ego and especially confirmation bias. This requires you to listen to others with an open mind, trust the expertise of others, but first your advisors must feel free to speak without fear.

Know the enemy and know yourself in a hundred battles you will never be in peril. When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself, your chances of winning or losing are equal. If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself, you are certain in every battle to be in peril.

 

[wlewisiii]

Ooops! As if Ukrainian forces weren't bad enough!

 

[buffnut453]

With Putin implementing laws that imprison anyone for spreading "fake news" (oh, how I HATE that term!), here are some first-hand experiences that demonstrate the power of Russian propaganda:

Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won’t believe me'

These Ukrainians say their Russian relatives only trust the narratives they see on TV at home.

www.bbc.com

 

[GrauGeist]

Problem is, while you are rational, Vlad the Impaler isn't.

Big difference between Vlad Putin and Vlad Tepis.

Vlad Tepis was was defending his homeland from ruthless invaders...

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

With Putin implementing laws that imprison anyone for spreading "fake news" (oh, how I HATE that term!), here are some first-hand experiences that demonstrate the power of Russian propaganda:

Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won’t believe me'

These Ukrainians say their Russian relatives only trust the narratives they see on TV at home.

www.bbc.com

The Russians have a detailed understanding of the importance of controlling the narrative, both in domestic and international terms.

I'd rant about the "fake news" trope but it would shut this thread down mos' rickey-tick, so I'll leave the readers to ascertain my opinion.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Closely followed by "The West should do something!" Do what, exactly?

I understand the frustration many feel but the available options are limited and to do anything militarily would risk significant escalation. Is that REALLY what people want to see? A war that's relatively contained for now spreading throughout Europe and the world? Not sure that's the right answer to this thorny problem.

NATO's fundamental problem is that it CANNOT be seen as stretching beyond its self-defensive mandate. Doing that would give Putin all the evidence he needs to say "See? I told you so. NATO is an aggressive threat." Nor can NATO member nations act unilaterally because, again, it gifts Putin a propaganda coup.

It's an ugly, gnarly problem with few good options for defusing the situation.

Agreed. Our hands are really tied behind our back.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I hope you're wrong. In any case, he will have to act before sanctions cripple Russia's ability to conduct war, which is the most-expensive human endeavor outside of perhaps space exploration/operations.

The sanctions are a double edge sword. By crippling him, it might further drive him to do something stupid because he believes he has no other options.