"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (3 Viewers)

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vikingBerserker said:


I keep hearing the recent Russian solders have to buy their own armor, med kits and food. Holy cripes...........
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That is not an army. That is a recipe for disaster. Few weapons, scanty ammo, and having to find food on the hoof ... those guys will break and run at the first opportunity. Or, more likely, simply surrender for two hots and a cot.
 
From ISW's "Takeaways" for 6 Oct:

Key Takeaways

Russia's use of Iranian-made drones is not generating asymmetric effects the way the Ukrainian use of US-provided HIMARS systems has done and is unlikely to affect the course of the war significantly.
The Wagner Private Military Company announced the creation of its own private Telegram channel on October 6, indicating that Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may want a voice that is clearly his own to compete with milbloggers and possibly Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov, who all have their own Telegram channels.
Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast near Kupyansk and operations to threaten Russian positions along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast on October 6.
Russian troops are likely establishing defensive positions in upper Kherson Oblast following the collapse of the Russian line in northeast Kherson.
Russian troops continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 6 and likely made incremental gains around Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued to conduct routine artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv Oblasts on October 6.
Local Russian officials appear to be frantically looking for ways to fund their mobilized units as the Kremlin increasingly expects local administrations to pay for the war effort from their own budgets.
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on October 6 that Russian forces began the forced mobilization of Ukrainian citizens in Russian-occupied Kremmina and Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast.

I've emboldened what I think is an important point. This devolving of the financing of the war to local jurisdictions will impact Russian civilians perhaps as deeply as the conscription itself, if not moreso. It may be simply a shuffling of the chips, but it looks to me like the Kremlin is trying to spread and misdirect antipathy to the war as its effects start to come home in the wake of this last month's defeats.
 
European parliament passed a joint motion, calling for a resolution which includes more armed support for Ukraine.

Included in the joint motion is a call to "coordinate weapons deliveries through the clearing house mechanism of the European External Action Service (EEAS), including an EU initiative for the delivery of advanced weapons systems such as Leopard tanks; calls on the Member States to immediately start training Ukrainian soldiers in this regard"

European Council on Foreign Relations reports more than 250 Leopards have been identified as being available to send to Ukraine, including 108 from Spain and 60 from Germany for "immediate release", with Finland having 100 "in reserve". Other tanks in the process of being identified.

EU also passed its eighth round of sanctions, targeting about EUR7 billion in Russian exports, and setting the legal ground work for a price cap on Russian oil for the G7.
 
Jabberwocky said:
Included in the joint motion is a call to "coordinate weapons deliveries through the clearing house mechanism of the European External Action Service (EEAS), including an EU initiative for the delivery of advanced weapons systems such as Leopard tanks; calls on the Member States to immediately start training Ukrainian soldiers in this regard"
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We'll have to see what Scholz has to say. His lack of energy thus far is not promising. Can the EU actually kick him into gear?

In the meantime:


The Biden administration announced a new $625 million security assistance package for Ukraine on Tuesday that will include key weapons, ammunition and equipment.

Why it matters: This is the U.S.' first military aid package to Ukraine since Russia took the escalatory step of annexing four regions of the country. The package includes advanced mobile rocket launcher systems that have been crucial to Ukrainian forces.

State of play: The Pentagon said the package contains four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), as well as howitzers, artillery and mortar rounds, and small arms ammunition.

  • This is the first time the U.S. has sent more HIMARS to Ukraine since July, bringing the total to 20, per AP. The weapons have allowed Ukrainian forces to strike bridges used to supply Russian troops, AP said.
  • The U.S. has now sent Ukraine more than $16.8 billion in aid since the start of the Russian invasion, the Pentagon said.
www.axios.com

The Biden administration is sending $625 million in new military aid to Ukraine

"The capabilities we are delivering are carefully calibrated to make the most difference on the battlefield."
www.axios.com www.axios.com

Many EU and/or NATO members have been very generous. Scholz and Macron both have been disappointing. imo.
 
This was a press briefing held two days ago.

It is full of useful information, numbers and such.

Of interest, is the comments regarding the provision of Western armor, which falls along the lines of what I've stated previously.

www.defense.gov

Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Def

Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Laura K. Cooper held a press briefing.
www.defense.gov
 
I hear France is finally coming through

Vespa.jpg
 
Sorry Marcel. But as far as far as support for the Ukraine, once more the French suck. The Germans are bad enough with ideas of German made equipment being sent to the Ukraine, the French have contributed nothing which is not surprising.
 
Perhaps my bad. On the list of countries contributing to Ukrainian defense, France was not listed. What matters is the total defeat of Russia at any cost. The Ukraine deserves freedom and the world deserves a world without Putin or others like him even if they are Chinese or North Korean.
 
Jabberwocky said:
European parliament passed a joint motion, calling for a resolution which includes more armed support for Ukraine.

Included in the joint motion is a call to "coordinate weapons deliveries through the clearing house mechanism of the European External Action Service (EEAS), including an EU initiative for the delivery of advanced weapons systems such as Leopard tanks; calls on the Member States to immediately start training Ukrainian soldiers in this regard"

European Council on Foreign Relations reports more than 250 Leopards have been identified as being available to send to Ukraine, including 108 from Spain and 60 from Germany for "immediate release", with Finland having 100 "in reserve". Other tanks in the process of being identified.

EU also passed its eighth round of sanctions, targeting about EUR7 billion in Russian exports, and setting the legal ground work for a price cap on Russian oil for the G7.
Click to expand...
I think this numbers are way off. Unless the idea is to send tanks that can't fire and can't move.
Spain had 53 2E4 leopard in long term storage. 40 of them where reserved for conversion to engineering vehicles, but the lack of funding due to 2008 crisis delayed the conversion indefinitely. Of them only a little over a dozen where deemed battle ready and there where plans to offer them to Ukraine. However later on it was estimated that getting those ready would be too expensive, even requiring parts not available anymore, and the offer was retired.
 
A couple of weeks ago I predicted that OPEC would raise a single digit salute to US and NATO. I still predict economic disaster for EU, and indrectly UK, pointing to inflation and currency. A Nord Pipeline was destroyed, not by Russia - not sayin' it was US, but,... thinkin' that a lot of folks are going to starve in the dark in eastern Europe (Those countries not able to politically rely on coal power and the few Nucs left), unless sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons are lifted. Natural Gas and Fuel Oil will continue via third parties at 2X to 3X of January 2022 crude peg but not AFFORDABLE by the PEOPLE. People get grumpy when confronted with choice 'Food vs safe Shelter - but not both'. Look to Populist leadership changes in Italy and Sweden. The landscape is changing.

Zelensky is pressuring NATO to come to the fight, up to and including nucs. Does that sound like a plea from a confident leader believing Ukraine is 'winning'? Russia may be going through trying times as far as personnel losses, but less than Ukraine as a % of reserves. Everybody is led to believe Putin is in deep kimchi. Maybe. Probably not. Deploying National Guard and then draftees into the battle will (In My stupid, ill informed opinion) will enable Russia to systematically reduce Ukraine's front line forces. Not by frontal assault, but systematic reduction by overwhelming artillery, as the 'newbies' are assimilated.

I don't think Putin is bluffing and strongly believe that leaders in EU and NATO and US need to hit a pause and seriously examine what Putin is saying. He has been consistent about cause and effect. One has to look at folks that think WWIII is both inevitable and that nuclear weapon exchange is survivable - need to be swiftly replaced by rational and intelligent folks that understand history.

I have been 'chastised' for my sources, and I accept that.

For those that are interested in the thoughts and analysis of Scott Ritter - take some time to listen to his perspectives. skip the first ten minutes and get to the questions and answers of the show. Re: Nordstream pipeline His perspectives of the US potential motivations of core interest groups in driving industry from EU (Germany) to US is certainly plausible.

 
Some interesting info.

According to the Ukrainians, they have received more than 2000 requests for instructions on how to surrender since they activated the 'I want to live' hotline. Some of the calls came from Russian conscripts still in Russia.

~370,000 Russian civilians have fled their home country rather than face the possibility of being drafted, according to neighboring nations.

Since the start of the 'limited mobilization':

Over 200,000 have traveled to Kazakhstan according to the Kazakh Interior Ministry. (~33,000 additional men left Russia for Kazakhstan in the period between the start of the war and the beginning of the mobilization.)

~93,000 have gone to Georgia according to the Russian news outlet Fontanka.

And ~66,000 have traveled to the EU, of which ~2/3 entered through Finland. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have now closed their borders(?) Finland is considering closing their border.

Russia has begun preventing/intercepting Russian men eligible for conscription from leaving the country.

Russia has requested other countries return those who have already left Russia, and to not allow further entries by any men not cleared by Russian authorities. Georgia is ignoring Russia on the subject, and Kazakhstan has said 'no'. (Kazakhstan has set up special welcoming stations along the border with food, water and other essentials.)

Russian media has put the number of men of conscription age that have left the country since the war began at ~700,000. The Russian government denies this number.
 
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