"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

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ISW is reporting Russian military bloggers are voicing concern that the two main supply lines going south to Izyum and Kupiyansk are being threatened by the Ukranian advance.

If these are cut, the whole of the Russian front line west and south of Kupiyansk becomes vulnerable. Ukraine could pivot southwards and roll up 50 or 60 km worth of territory in relatively short order. Basically retake everything to the west of the Oskil river.

That then gives them a solid natural obstacle on their flank, to allow for drives further east-southeast towards Rubizhen/Severodonetsk/Lysychansk.

Alternatively, there's speculation they could get REALLY ambitious and head further east into Luhask Oblast and attempt to cut some more supply lines heading south and west out of Russia. That's an advance of a further 80-100km though.
I'm looking forward to the Ukrainian liberation of the Duchy of St. Petersburg.
 
They should leave it open to highly degreed folks and their families to help the Russian brain drain.
Not sure if a brain drain is a good idea.

In one hand, i make it more difficult for Rusia to overcome the hardships and be more dangerous in the future.

In the other one, when the time to change comes, there will be nobody with an open mind to steer in a better direction, only zealots to double the bet without counterbalance. Perchas even more dangerous.
 
Notice I said, "…..without reading…."

Not picking on you, sorry if it seemed so. I was just highlighting the clever use of rivers by UAF

Anyway, that map seems to evolve lightning fast. This is the latest twitter map, not sure how accurate and reliable is. But there are pictures circulating of UAF troops on the outskirts of Kupyansk

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The Russian Ministry of Defense is in the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for its ongoing fight in Ukraine, according to a newly downgraded U.S. intelligence finding.

Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said Tuesday that "the information that we have is that Russia has specifically asked for ammunition." He said the U.S. has seen indications Russia approached North Korea, but said he had no other details, including whether money has changed hands or any shipments are in progress.

"It does demonstrate and is indicative of the situation that Russia finds itself in, in terms of its logistics and sustainment capabilities as it relates to Ukraine," said Ryder, in the administration's first public comments on the intelligence assessment. "We assess that things are not going well on that front for Russia."

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said there were no indications that the arms purchase had actually occurred yet or that any North Korean munitions had made it onto the Ukrainian battlefield. Still, he said the talks alone were "just another indication of how desperate Putin's becoming."


 
And --


Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin praised Ukraine's "demonstrable success" in its ongoing counteroffensive against Russian troops in the southern Kherson region during a meeting outlining the contents of the United States' latest military aid package to Ukraine.

Austin's remarks came at the opening of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, an organization of Western allies created to coordinate and plan long-term aid to Ukraine, at the United States' Ramstein Air Base in southern Germany. The secretary of defense emphasized that the war had now reached a "key moment," adding that Kyiv's Western backers "need … to position [themselves] to sustain Ukraine's brave defenders for the long haul."

"Now we're seeing the demonstrable success of our common efforts on the battlefield," Austin added, referencing the ongoing counteroffensive. He also announced that an additional $675 million in military equipment, including 105mm howitzers and GMLRS precision-guided rockets, had been set aside for Ukraine by the Biden administration, noting that it had been the "twentieth drawdown of equipment from U.S. stocks for Ukraine since last August."



"Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition."
 
re Russia buying ammunition from North Korea

It is kind of interesting how the interplay of the sanctions against Russia and North Korea are working out.

In 2015 Russia and NK agreed to use the ruble for all of their trade cash payments with each other.

Sanctions imposed in 2017 (universally approved by the UN security council which includes Russia) allow no more than 500,000 barrels or refined oil products/year to be exported to NK. This amounts to the equivalent of about 1 USgal/person in NK. Russia has been providing an additional ~25% over the sanctions through grey market trade. Indigenous oil refining production amounts to less than .1 USgal/person.

The sanctions against Russia regarding trade have grossly reduced the RF exports of oil, thus reducing their ability to purchase goods from other countries.

The recent inflation of the ruble in Russia and devaluation of the ruble worldwide has significantly reduced the amount of goods a ruble can buy, including between Russia and NK.

NK has just recently reached the point where they are unable to pay for the additional oil they have been receiving from Russia through the grey market.

Russia is hurting for lack of ability to purchase goods.

Hence, Russia has effectively agreed to supply oil for free to NK and accept military munitions in trade.

NK now has nuclear weapons, and no longer feels as much need for massive stockpiles of ammunition to prevent invasion. So NK has agreed to draw down their conventional ammunition stocks.

Russia had recently announced that there would be 100,000 NK personnel coming to Ukraine to help rebuild the damage done in the eastern separatist regions.

Because of the devaluation of the ruble, Russia is unable to offer the desired NK personnel a living/worthwhile wage via payment in rubles.

The average NK person has no use for oil, and is apparently unwilling to work for something that they cannot use. (The military uses ~1/2 of all oil products that NK imports, industry accounts for the vast majority of the rest.)

The NK government is therefore having serious problems recruiting personnel to send to Ukraine.

In some ways, this is almost like a tragi-comedy farce movie.
 
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re Russia buying ammunition from North Korea

It is kind of interesting how the interplay of the sanctions against Russia and North Korea are working out.

In 2015 Russia and NK agreed to use the ruble for all of trade cash payments with each other.

Sanctions imposed in 2017 (universally approved by the UN security council which includes Russia) allow no more than 500,000 barrels or refined oil products/year to be exported to NK. This amounts to the equivalent of about 1 USgal/person in NK. Russia has been providing an additional ~25% over the sanctions through grey market trade. Indigenous oil refining production amounts to less than .1 USgal/person.

The sanctions against Russia regarding trade have grossly reduced the RF exports of oil, thus reducing their ability to purchase goods from other countries.

The recent inflation of the ruble in Russia and devaluation of the ruble worldwide has significantly reduced the amount of goods a ruble can buy, including between Russia and NK.

NK has just recently reached the point where they are unable to pay for the additional oil they have been receiving from Russia through the grey market.

Russia is hurting for lack of ability to purchase goods.

Hence, Russia has effectively agreed to supply oil for free to NK and accept military munitions in trade.

NK now has nuclear weapons, and no longer feels as much need for massive stockpiles of ammunition to prevent invasion. So NK has agreed to draw down their conventional ammunition stocks.

Russia had recently announced that there would be 100,000 NK personnel coming to Ukraine to help rebuild the damage done in the eastern separatist regions.

Because of the devaluation of the ruble, Russia is unable to offer the desired NK personnel a living/worthwhile wage via payment in rubles.

The average NK person has no use for oil, and is apparently unwilling to work for something that they cannot use. (The military uses ~1/2 of all oil products that NK imports, industry accounts for the vast majority of the rest.)

The NK government is therefore having serious problems recruiting personnel to send to Ukraine.

In some ways, this is almost like a tragi-comedy farce movie.

Right, sanctioned countries tend to be driven into each others' arms. I wasn't aware the ruble was still suffering so, given recent Russian pronouncements about its domestic stabilization, but it stands to reason that Russia cannot control its international market value.

I find it interesting what you say about DPRK recruitment of laborers for Ukrainian duty. I had assumed they would simply find the workers and they'd be voluntold. I'd also assumed that many would be eager simply for the rations.
 

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