We can do basic calculations of the P-47's combat radius right here, right now, by using document AN 01-65BC-1A entitled, Pilot's Flight Operating Instructions for Army Models P-47D -25, -26, -27, -28, -30, and -35 Airplanes dated 25 Jan. 1945, and using its climb and cruise charts. Unfortunately, the cruise charts are only filled out to a limited degree, but there's enough data to make a rudimentary attempt.
91 gallons = amount of fuel consumed climbing to 20,000 feet at a 14,200 lbs gross weight
91 gallons = amount of fuel consumed by fifteen minutes of full MIL and fives minutes WEP
48 gallons = amount of fuel reserve (30 minutes' cruising at maximum range settings at 20,000 feet)
The above adds up to 230 gallons, leaving 140 gallons of the 370 gallon internal capacity for cruising. Column V (Maximum Air Range) shows that the aircraft gets 3.03 air miles per gallon at 20,000 feet (288 mph TAS / 95 gph).
Fuel consumption agrees with the table provided in America's Hundred Thousand, interesting P-47 economic cruise speed. Assuming that is an acceptable speed over Germany then to turn it around a bit deducting the 91 gallons for combat and the 48 gallons for reserve leaves 166 gallons for return, or about 500 miles for the early P-47. To get there requires 91 gallons for take off and climb plus 166 gallons using the wonder no weight or drag external tank, add say 10% for tank drag and you are about 280 gallons of external fuel. Have 110 gallons of external fuel which can be pumped into the main tanks during the climb and jettisoned just about as soon as the climb has finished and your radius is around 280 miles.
Roger Freeman thinks for P-47, external fuel radius, 84 gallons 280 miles, 108 gallons 325 miles, 165 gallons 375 miles, 215 gallons 480 miles, 300 gallons 550 miles, the final combination a pair of tanks. Going from 84 to 180 gallons gets you 3.75 mpg from the extra fuel, from 108 to 165 gallons 1.75 mpg, 165 to 215 gallons 4.2 mpg, 215 to 300 gallons 1.65 mpg. Fascinating if true about the drag different tanks had but more likely to reflect some are using the early 305 gallon internal fuel and others the later 370 gallons, the extra fuel adding around 215 miles to economic cruise range. The many times used range graphic has Spitfire 175 miles in May 1943, P-47 230 miles in June, 375 miles in August (Frankfurt, Kassel, Hannover just in range, Hamburg just out), P-38 520 miles in August and P-51 600 miles in early 1944. It would be very useful to find the 8th Air Force documents specifying how combat radius was calculated. Do not forget the extra pilot training and navigation aids required to enable an isolated fighter or small formation to find their way back from hundreds of miles out in less than perfect weather.
To June 1940 any bombing campaign assumed the enemy was across the border, fighting at long range costs, assuming the French airfields became instantly available to the 8th Air Force on 1 September then in the period to 31 August 1944 some 2.7% of 8th Air Force B-17s listed as lost to fighters made it back to allied territory, versus 6.4% of those listed as lost to flak. For the period 1 September 1944 to the end of the war the figures become 5.8% and 16.6%.
Sending the P-38 units to the Mediterranean in late 1942 was the correct decision, apart from their contribution to the fighting they enabled what ultimately became the European Theatre Commander Team to work out longer ranged escorted heavy bomber raids. Heavy bomber missions in Europe in 1942/43 would likely be longer ranged on average and against stronger opposition than in the Mediterranean, given the losses the P-38 took in the Mediterranean and the difficulties later P-38 had as 8th Air Force escorts in 1943/44 any P-38 units in Britain would most likely take heavier losses, remembering in early 1943 the Luftwaffe was much more ready to engage allied fighters than at the end of 1943.
In September 1944 Germany's oil product production was down from a peak of just over 700,000 tons a month to around 260,000 tons a month. The bombers mostly hit the synthetic plants in the first phase, it was known Germany had more crude oil refining capacity than crude oil supply. The Hydrogenation plants from 340,000 tons at peak to 25,000 tons in September, Fischer-Tropsch from 43,000 to 6,000 tons, Benzol from 57,000 to 44,000 tons.
The USSBS notes occupied Europe contributed another 12% to German steel production in the 1941-44 time period, then there is the estimated loss of production due to air raid damage and alarms. The USSBS German total 1941-44 is 113.4 million tons (about 2.4 million tons a month on average), add another 13.7 million tons from occupied Europe, with around 6.5 million tons of production estimated lost due to allied air activity in Germany alone in 1943 and 1944. Christine Goulter in A Forgotten Offensive has Ruhr Steel production at 1.1 to 1.2 million tons a month January to August 1944, down to 300,000 tons in December. A significant part of the drop caused by reductions in iron ore imports starting earlier in 1944 due to a combination of Sweden reducing exports and the Coastal Command anti shipping operations.
John Ellis puts US steel production 1942-44 as 247.9 million tons.
Despite the return to full employment in the 1930's the availability of consumer goods declined as did the standard of living for the average German. The Rolf Wagenfuehr/Speer index numbers are now known to underestimate German economic mobilisation early in the war, things like the Hydrogenation plants being built, reducing the Speer "miracle", in any case like the allies there was the mass production efficiency curve. Speer definitely made the German war economy more efficient and effective, though not as much as he claimed. He was able to provide lots of accurate information to his captors, preferring to omit his involvement in slave supply, his book tends to be a real time account, meaning most advocates of various air and economic war causes can find support at some point.
In 1936 the USAAF used the technology and ideas of the time and ordered the XFM-1 long range fighter prototype, in 1938 came an order for test examples a month ahead of the XP-38 order, like the P-38 it had twin turbo charged Allison engines and 400 gallons of unprotected internal fuel, there were 7 FM-1, 3 FM-1A and 2 FM-1B in 1940 and 1941, ranges depending on model, best seems to be around 1,000 miles on internal and around 2,000 miles maximum.
Imagine if a different memo had been written on 5-16-39 requiring the use of drop tanks instead of prohibiting them. That gives another two years for engineering/design, testing, development, training, tactics, etc. Imagine if a forward thinking USAAF required Republic to design drop tank capability from the beginning.
Imagine one or more significant accidents where the external fuel was a major cause. Meantime all combat worthy P-47 came with ferry tank or drop tank fittings. Since the USAAF did not specify internal fuel tank protection until 1940 the same would apply to external tanks to that date. At best the USAAF could have had 9 groups of longer ranged higher altitude fighters available to the 8th Air Force mid 1943, 3 P-38, 3 P-47 and 3 Spitfire VIII, at a cost to the fighting in the Mediterranean at least. The Germans could easily over match that force numbers wise as required. Imagine them doing a fighting withdrawal in North Africa, as the air cover was not available, saving most of the troops and taking way fewer aircraft losses, cancelling the air effort to defend Sicily as well.
Wasn't the whole air corps propaganda
Interesting term, not publicity? Propaganda is a conclusion, yet we have someone claiming to be looking for evidence to support a conclusion.
How many lives might have been saved
The numbers possible have been given for the 8th Air Force, now being ignored, time to wind things back to imagine another figure, the real one must be unacceptable.
(for example in Greg's hated video)
Remember folks, Greg is dealing with haters, not rational people, hence why he must be more right than those here. People who ban others can be called haters. I have not seen the video, or those by others, as that medium is simply not information dense enough to justify use of my research time budget, the current failing attempt to defend the video confirms my decision as correct.
I mentioned McNamara and Vietnam earlier, and that was poo-pooed,
Actually McNamara was mentioned as part of a sad guilt by association attempt, but watch someone get upset way beyond poo-poohed if they decide it is aimed at them. Thanks for such an easy to check example of your methods. One might argue that the arrogant man was 0 for many, heading for triple figures as the adjectives thicken while the facts stay unanswered and yet more look over there attempts are made. Adjectives can be a lot of fun.
So far you started with 10 times over inflated losses. Still believe Mosquitoes and B-26 could substitute for B-17 and B-24 for example? Flak suppression sorties? How ineffective the bomber gunners were? Still believe it was under 5% of bombs within 1 mile of target? Nothing you introduced was new, nil, zero. Including guilt by association. So who are the USAAF bomber mafia generals? How did they stop the 8th Air Force having a numerically viable escort force in 1943?
To complete the 8th Air Force Raid days on Germany to end 1944, Richard Davis figures, which includes non bombing sorties like night leaflet etc. Again the USAAF counted percentages from the number of aircraft that entered hostile airspace, which is more than the number credited with attacking, using attacking ups the figures . The jump in the average raid sizes from November 1943 helps reduce percentage losses. The last time the defences caused more than 5% of the number of bombers credited with attacking to be classified as missing was on 24 May 1944. The 4 raid days 8 to 14 October 1943 saw 142 bombers missing, the 4 raid days 3 to 8 March 1944 saw 131 bombers missing, the 4 raid days 1 to 11 April 1944 saw 129 bombers missing.
03-Nov-43 attacking: 539, missing: 7
05-Nov-43 attacking: 436, missing: 11
07-Nov-43 attacking: 112, missing: 0
11-Nov-43 attacking: 60, missing: 4
12-Nov-43 attacking: 1, missing: 0
13-Nov-43 attacking: 143, missing: 16
19-Nov-43 attacking: 113, missing: 0
26-Nov-43 attacking: 440, missing: 25
29-Nov-43 attacking: 155, missing: 14
30-Nov-43 attacking: 80, missing: 3
01-Dec-43 attacking: 281, missing: 24
02-Dec-43 attacking: 5, missing: 0
11-Dec-43 attacking: 523, missing: 17
13-Dec-43 attacking: 650, missing: 5
16-Dec-43 attacking: 539, missing: 10
20-Dec-43 attacking: 472, missing: 27
22-Dec-43 attacking: 440, missing: 22
27-Dec-43 attacking: 1, missing: 0
29-Dec-43 attacking: 7, missing: 0
30-Dec-43 attacking: 658, missing: 23
04-Jan-44 attacking: 551, missing: 19
05-Jan-44 attacking: 297, missing: 12
07-Jan-44 attacking: 421, missing: 12
11-Jan-44 attacking: 557, missing: 60
14-Jan-44 attacking: 1, missing: 0
23-Jan-44 attacking: 1, missing: 0
24-Jan-44 attacking: 58, missing: 2
25-Jan-44 attacking: 1, missing: 0
28-Jan-44 attacking: 1, missing: 0
29-Jan-44 attacking: 809, missing: 34
30-Jan-44 attacking: 754, missing: 20
03-Feb-44 attacking: 615, missing: 5
04-Feb-44 attacking: 655, missing: 20
08-Feb-44 attacking: 201, missing: 13
10-Feb-44 attacking: 138, missing: 29
11-Feb-44 attacking: 218, missing: 3
20-Feb-44 attacking: 889, missing: 21
21-Feb-44 attacking: 760, missing: 16
22-Feb-44 attacking: 183, missing: 35
24-Feb-44 attacking: 754, missing: 51
25-Feb-44 attacking: 694, missing: 31
29-Feb-44 attacking: 218, missing: 1
02-Mar-44 attacking: 373, missing: 9
03-Mar-44 attacking: 154, missing: 11
04-Mar-44 attacking: 214, missing: 15
06-Mar-44 attacking: 658, missing: 69
08-Mar-44 attacking: 543, missing: 36
09-Mar-44 attacking: 490, missing: 8
11-Mar-44 attacking: 124, missing: 1
15-Mar-44 attacking: 335, missing: 3
16-Mar-44 attacking: 711, missing: 23
18-Mar-44 attacking: 679, missing: 43
20-Mar-44 attacking: 149, missing: 7
22-Mar-44 attacking: 698, missing: 12
23-Mar-44 attacking: 705, missing: 28
24-Mar-44 attacking: 224, missing: 3
29-Mar-44 attacking: 228, missing: 9
01-Apr-44 attacking: 110, missing: 12
08-Apr-44 attacking: 630, missing: 34
09-Apr-44 attacking: 326, missing: 19
11-Apr-44 attacking: 826, missing: 64
12-Apr-44 attacking: 0, missing: 6 (Mission abandoned)
13-Apr-44 attacking: 576, missing: 38
18-Apr-44 attacking: 727, missing: 19
19-Apr-44 attacking: 749, missing: 5
22-Apr-44 attacking: 801, missing: 19
24-Apr-44 attacking: 714, missing: 39
25-Apr-44 attacking: 29, missing: 5
26-Apr-44 attacking: 342, missing: 0
29-Apr-44 attacking: 617, missing: 64
07-May-44 attacking: 886, missing: 9
08-May-44 attacking: 742, missing: 36
11-May-44 attacking: 229, missing: 6
12-May-44 attacking: 659, missing: 37
13-May-44 attacking: 688, missing: 12
19-May-44 attacking: 823, missing: 28
22-May-44 attacking: 292, missing: 5
23-May-44 attacking: 176, missing: 0
24-May-44 attacking: 519, missing: 33
27-May-44 attacking: 697, missing: 21
28-May-44 attacking: 875, missing: 32
29-May-44 attacking: 732, missing: 32
30-May-44 attacking: 672, missing: 12
31-May-44 attacking: 244, missing: 1
14-Jun-44 attacking: 60, missing: 0
15-Jun-44 attacking: 204, missing: 0
18-Jun-44 attacking: 1163, missing: 11
20-Jun-44 attacking: 1266, missing: 45
21-Jun-44 attacking: 1137, missing: 47
24-Jun-44 attacking: 317, missing: 1
28-Jun-44 attacking: 331, missing: 1
29-Jun-44 attacking: 706, missing: 15
06-Jul-44 attacking: 232, missing: 3
07-Jul-44 attacking: 1001, missing: 37
11-Jul-44 attacking: 1048, missing: 21
12-Jul-44 attacking: 1149, missing: 24
13-Jul-44 attacking: 901, missing: 10
16-Jul-44 attacking: 986, missing: 11
18-Jul-44 attacking: 652, missing: 3
19-Jul-44 attacking: 1031, missing: 17
20-Jul-44 attacking: 1166, missing: 19
21-Jul-44 attacking: 961, missing: 31
22-Jul-44 attacking: 7, missing: 0
28-Jul-44 attacking: 710, missing: 7
29-Jul-44 attacking: 1045, missing: 17
31-Jul-44 attacking: 1098, missing: 16
03-Aug-44 attacking: 71, missing: 1
04-Aug-44 attacking: 1169, missing: 17
05-Aug-44 attacking: 1070, missing: 13
06-Aug-44 attacking: 927, missing: 25
09-Aug-44 attacking: 420, missing: 15
11-Aug-44 attacking: 60, missing: 2
14-Aug-44 attacking: 483, missing: 2
15-Aug-44 attacking: 637, missing: 13
16-Aug-44 attacking: 992, missing: 23
24-Aug-44 attacking: 1072, missing: 24
25-Aug-44 attacking: 1117, missing: 18
26-Aug-44 attacking: 459, missing: 9
27-Aug-44 attacking: 162, missing: 2
30-Aug-44 attacking: 616, missing: 0
01-Sep-44 attacking: 13, missing: 0
03-Sep-44 attacking: 326, missing: 2
05-Sep-44 attacking: 667, missing: 8
08-Sep-44 attacking: 940, missing: 11
09-Sep-44 attacking: 920, missing: 16
10-Sep-44 attacking: 1091, missing: 8
11-Sep-44 attacking: 973, missing: 40
12-Sep-44 attacking: 735, missing: 31
13-Sep-44 attacking: 800, missing: 16
14-Sep-44 attacking: 2, missing:
19-Sep-44 attacking: 715, missing: 4
21-Sep-44 attacking: 441, missing: 4
22-Sep-44 attacking: 621, missing: 4
25-Sep-44 attacking: 924, missing: 3
26-Sep-44 attacking: 1068, missing: 9
27-Sep-44 attacking: 1092, missing: 28
28-Sep-44 attacking: 981, missing: 36
30-Sep-44 attacking: 765, missing: 9
02-Oct-44 attacking: 1107, missing: 4
03-Oct-44 attacking: 999, missing: 4
05-Oct-44 attacking: 944, missing: 8
06-Oct-44 attacking: 1196, missing: 3
07-Oct-44 attacking: 1301, missing: 41
09-Oct-44 attacking: 1051, missing: 2
10-Oct-44 attacking: 0, missing: 0 (Leaflet)
11-Oct-44 attacking: 130, missing: 4
12-Oct-44 attacking: 511, missing: 3
14-Oct-44 attacking: 1107, missing: 5
15-Oct-44 attacking: 1124, missing: 6
17-Oct-44 attacking: 1248, missing: 4
18-Oct-44 attacking: 479, missing: 5
19-Oct-44 attacking: 946, missing: 6
22-Oct-44 attacking: 1074, missing: 4
25-Oct-44 attacking: 1196, missing: 2
26-Oct-44 attacking: 1161, missing: 0
28-Oct-44 attacking: 363, missing: 3
30-Oct-44 attacking: 670, missing: 3
01-Nov-44 attacking: 366, missing: 0
02-Nov-44 attacking: 1102, missing: 38
04-Nov-44 attacking: 1109, missing: 5
05-Nov-44 attacking: 1211, missing: 12
06-Nov-44 attacking: 1107, missing: 5
08-Nov-44 attacking: 289, missing: 3
09-Nov-44 attacking: 363, missing: 4
10-Nov-44 attacking: 677, missing: 4
11-Nov-44 attacking: 440, missing: 1
15-Nov-44 attacking: 12, missing: 0
16-Nov-44 attacking: 1191, missing: 0
20-Nov-44 attacking: 152, missing: 0
21-Nov-44 attacking: 1136, missing: 25
23-Nov-44 attacking: 159, missing: 0
25-Nov-44 attacking: 947, missing: 8
26-Nov-44 attacking: 1068, missing: 34
27-Nov-44 attacking: 484, missing: 0
29-Nov-44 attacking: 1033, missing: 1
30-Nov-44 attacking: 1225, missing: 33
01-Dec-44 attacking: 15, missing: 0
02-Dec-44 attacking: 276, missing: 11
04-Dec-44 attacking: 1150, missing: 3
05-Dec-44 attacking: 549, missing: 12
06-Dec-44 attacking: 774, missing: 4
09-Dec-44 attacking: 394, missing: 1
10-Dec-44 attacking: 451, missing: 0
11-Dec-44 attacking: 1489, missing: 6
12-Dec-44 attacking: 1214, missing: 5
15-Dec-44 attacking: 654, missing: 1
16-Dec-44 attacking: 116, missing: 1
18-Dec-44 attacking: 402, missing: 0
19-Dec-44 attacking: 299, missing: 0
23-Dec-44 attacking: 409, missing: 0
24-Dec-44 attacking: 1879, missing: 11
25-Dec-44 attacking: 393, missing: 5
26-Dec-44 attacking: 126, missing: 0
27-Dec-44 attacking: 570, missing: 2
28-Dec-44 attacking: 1170, missing: 2
29-Dec-44 attacking: 760, missing: 3
30-Dec-44 attacking: 1276, missing: 4
31-Dec-44 attacking: 1250, missing: 27