As always you do under estimate the situation if this was the primary goal!
Good to see you are your usual coureous and congenial self DonL, This is going to a civil exchange I hope.
You are talking about 1940/41 and 5 Divisions!
If the LW is at italy with all her strengths and Rommel had 5 elite divisions then Bengasi, Tobruk and Malta are down at June 1941!
There were no agreements with the italians until the end of October 1940. until then, there is no possibility of any reinforcement into italy. It then took three months basically to develop the airfields and set up the supporting infrastructure to support 248 a/c of FKX. Even at that rate, German logistics were stretched. German and italian logistics in Africa were fully strched to support roughly 150 aircraft in the assaults on Tobruk.
Looking firstly at malta, there were only two specialist anti-shipping units in the LW of Korps size, at the beginning of 1941. by the end of 1941, after strenuous efforts and training there were 21/2, the half being schwarzes meer command for the Eastern Front. There were odds and sods around the occupied territories that might give some help. The rest of the LW was untrained for anti-shipping operations, and as was found in 1940, by the germans, only appropriately trained aircrews are of any use in anti-shipping operations. So, there is very little chance of full defeat of the RN, or indeed, any additional defeat beyond what they suffered historically. It is possible for general air force units to be used on anti-shipping ops, but they are not efficient, as the italians, the british and the germans found out at various times.
Obviously with time and training (about nine months additional training on average) additional formations of the LW could be retrained for anti ship operations, and airfields provided, but this takes you to the latter half of 1941, not the June deadline you are suggesting.
Malta, under any scenario is a difficult nut for the Axis to crack....possible but not easy. And as barnett points out in "Engage the enmy more closely", it is not the complete answer to Axis logistic difficulties. Hercules Mark I was originally planned no earlier than September 1941 from memory, the second plan would have seen airdrops in July 1942. there were many months of delay between the time of orders being issued, and the plan actually being carried out.
During the re-supply convoys in 42, more than 600 Axis aircraft were ranged against about 70 defenders, and could not crack the defences, mostly because they found it hard to concentrate, Attacking a carrier task force is not an easy option even at the best of times. With no far eastern deployments to worry about, the brits will have an additional five carriers for the med, and more modern equipment far ealier, particulalry Martlets......its not the walkover you think it would be. If the US does come into the fray there are another 5 carriers and another 500 a/c or so to contend with. I actually see this scenario as a bloodbath against the LW, not the other way round
Now, putting 5 divs into the theatre is absolutely no gurantee that Tobruk would be taken either. The most likley involvement of the germans would be via Greece and Yugoslavia, by ealry involvement, and no deployment against the Vichy, or alternatively cleaning the Lavant Vichy by forces in the East (after iraq). under those circumstances, the 5 divs which replace the 2 divs actually deployed, instead of being faced by one Aus Div in Tobruk, would be faced by two lus a full armoured Brigade, plus an additional Div in reserve. Since tyhe germans would need about 2 divs to face the frontier, they would have 3 divs, less well supplied than Rommel was, against 2.5 fresh and dug in troops in Tobruk. If they pour more assets into the TO, roughly 150 a/c equals the needs of a Div, so, say you wanted to pour in 450 aircraft into your NA scenario, you have reduced your frontline troop strengths to about 3 divs. Thats now 1.5 divs plus 450 a/c against 2.5 divs dig in. Still not good for the germans.
A meditterranean solution is a furphy
Please describe any scenario with sources that can stop Rommel and the LW to reach this goal!
see above
With Malta down there are only two bases for the Royal Navy, Gibratar and Alexandria! And no more supply for the GB troops through the Mediterranean sea with the LW at Italy, Malta and North Africa.
The whole time there would be a building of merchandise ships at the Mediterranean ports from Italy and germany!
See above. takes time to deploy, takes time to retrain. Doesnt overcome the port limitation of North africa. Malta is not a dead certainlty, and even if lost does not overcome Axis supply difficulties. The med was seldom used by the Allies until 1943. As for building ships, exactly what shipbuilding capacity do you think the italians possessed. Historically for the whole war they built about 300000 tons of seagoing shipping with an avergae build time per ship of around 20 months. If your building programn starts in December 1940 (highly unlikley) its still late 1942 before there is any effect on the Italian merchant marine. On top of that, your grand plan to use middle eastern oil requires additional shipping over and above that again. The axis will still be fighting on a much broader front, as well as trying to bring home the oil (oil is not general cargo so different ships are needed)....the oil dream is a fantasy for the axis....it wont work, as Hitler well knew...thats why he never went for it. Additionally, what was found when the germans went for the Caucasian oil is that the wells were completely wrecked, and would have required at least two years to repair. Brits did that in Burma, why not in the Mid east and Arabia????
With Tobruk there would be a good harbour for the Wehrmacht to force there troops to the suez canal.
Please describe with what troops and supply Archilenk will stopp Rommel with 5 elite divisions the described LW at Italy and North Africa and Malta and Toobruk at german hands to take Alexandria and the Suez Canal at autum 1941?
When they did finally take tobruk in June 42, tobrulk was found to be totally useless as a port. It has about 1/5 5he cargo handling capacity of tripoli. The Germans never even attempted to use it, it was so poor as a port, and so comphrehensively wrecked. Taking suez and Alex are both highly unlikely and even if captured, again will be so completely wrecked it would take years to recover
After that it is only a matter of time when german troops are at Saudi Arabian!
And don't forget there is no fuel at the war in the east, all fuel from Romania could get to the Mediterranean sea for the german troops, LW and the Italian Navy!
Different kind of fuel for ships,and it would remain in short supply no matter there was no war in the east
Lol, and what they want to do against german stukas, He 111 torpedo bombers and later Fritz X'?
The way from Saudi Arabian to the suez canal is realy short and the LW will be present!
To be very very specific, it is much much much more possible then to invade the UDSSR and get to Baku and the OIL through the Kaukasus
!
Keep dreaming friend, keep dreaming
