For the first question I was thinking of articles like this
Der Gabelschwanz Teufel - Assessing the Lockheed P-38 Lightning
although it does only claim odds of 5 to 1.
I have chastised my facebook friend Corey Jordan about many inaccuracies in that Austalian article. Not the least was understating P-47C/D Combat Radius as stated for Fall-Winter 1943.
With the 108 gallon tank in September, its planning Combat Radius (with assumptions for combat and reserve after dropping external tanks) was ~ 275mi and then w/150 gal belly tank Jan-Feb 1944) ~ 375mi. In the same time envelope the P-38H w/75 gal tanks in Oct-Nov was 275mi, but in December with 2x150gal tanks ~ 375mi. The Combat Radius discussion greatly overstated late 1943 for P-38 as "500 NM CR was not achieved until the 55ga LE tanks combined with the 2x150 gal externals - March 1944
For clarity regarding the discussion of 'LR' escort missions in the posts above - only the 1943 December/Jan 1944 P-38 AND P-51B could range as far as Hildesheim/Brunswick/Hamburg line - but pretty close to making Schweinfurt had the gamble been necessary.
Ludwigshafen at 410mi, not (quite) an example of deeper strikes to Leipzig (525) and Regensburg (570), air miles from Cambridge - but a distance only the P-47D-16 with 2x150gal combat tanks could achieve in April 1944. By that time the P-4D had been relegated to Penetration/Withdrawal Escort
The "5:1" adverse ratio could easily occur when either side could gain the upper hand with local superiority - the problem with the Article is very poor sourcing and cited references. There were many instances when mechanical failures approached and exceeded 50% returns of the P-38 force that took off. So, for example, Section of P-38s attacking - or being attacked by a Gruppe or combined squadron of escort and ZG units could find itself in numerical trouble easily.
Perhaps the most glaring example of goofy research was the unbelievable 'mislabeling' by the artist Kopp of the P-51B-5-NA (2 examples - tp and bottom) and P-51B-15-NA (middle) as P-51B-5, -10-"NT". NT denotes Dallas manufacture and if correct would have been
P-51C
Now to the very confusing Map - which implies that the P-47 had a greater combat radius than the P-38. NO. The Only instance of near equal combat radius is when the P-47 carried a 108 gal belly tank and the P-38 (w/o LE 55 gal tanks) carried 2x75 externals... the 38 typically used 75 gallon until the flood of 150 gal combat tanks arrived in November (tear drop P-38 tank/not 'flat' belly tank for P-47.
What is date and source of the map? Even 'official Maps' produced in 1944 and even post war were flawed with lack of precision regarding internal and external tankage as well as model.
As for the second question I must apologize for a very poor post (I'm blaming jet lag). I don't know why I stated Ludwigshafen which really isn't that far. I was actually thinking of the January 11 raid on Brunswick, Halberstatdt and Oscherleben, which you noted. As for Bordeaux, I discount that as it wasn't a deep penetration of German airspace. In fact the two pervious missions to Bordeaux in December were unescorted. You might disagree.
The point I was trying to make was that Big Week was a step change in mission distances, which were 100 miles deeper than previously attempted. I have updated the chart I shared a couple of years ago with more info.