I've spent a little time looking into Japanese aircraft loses versus Allied claims. I started down this road after being most abruptly, and somewhat rudely, informed by a poster in a forum elsewhere that the USN and AAF shot down more Japanese aircraft than the Japanese ever had. I found that a little hard to believe, but it is a little difficult for me to argue a point without the numbers to back it up. That event was a long time ago and I don't even remember where it occurred. So, over time I've accumulated bits and pieces of data and file it away to cogitate over. Anyway. some of the information is pretty easy to come by. Other pieces to the puzzle are missing and leave great big blank spots. Some of those blanks can be roughly filled in with some guesstimates based on statistical extrapolation, the rest remain as holes in the data. I'll be happy to share what I've found (or guessed . . . errr calculated). Perhaps some of you folks have some data to fill in some of the whole.
Starting with the Japanese and mostly working from the reports compiled in the USSBS:
Aircraft on Hand 7 December: Unknown. However, we can determine how many aircraft were produced prior to December 1941 that were of types that were operational during the war:
Aircraft Produced (including Prototypes Trainers) prior to December 1941: 15,233
Aircraft Produced (less Prototypes) prior to December 1941: 15,217
Aircraft Produced (less Prototypes Trainers) prior to December 1941: 12,137
Again, how many of these were on hand on 7 December is unknown. Based upon operating experiences of other services, one would expect the vast majority of unit assigned aircraft, i.e., not prototypes and not trainers, were probably available. In my calculations I was careful to exclude those types that were obsolete and in the process of phasing out as the war began, thus leaving only those types likely to see active service during the war.
And once the war started, with production numbers starting from 1 December 1941:
Aircraft Produced (including Prototypes) through August 1945: 70,975
Aircraft Produced (less Prototypes) through August 1945: 70,976
Aircraft Produced (less Prototypes Trainers) through August 1945: 55,973
Compared to losses:
Reported JNAF Losses, Combat: 10,370
Reported JNAF Losses, Operational: 16,750
Reported JAAF Losses, Combat: 16,255
Reported JAAF Losses, Operational: 7,580
Total Combat Losses: 26,625
Total Operational Losses: 24,330
Total Losses: 55,955
Based on the USN experience, and especially in the Solomons Campaign, I have calculated that roughly 15% of the Japanese operational losses were probably combat related as opposed to accidents. These would be planes that went out on combat missions and were never heard from again, that were probably lost due to combat damage and went down without any friendly witnesses. This number I take off the operational losses and add back to the combat losses:
Calculated Japanese Losses, Combat: 30,275
Calculated Japanese Losses, Operational: 20,680
Balance of Aircraft Available from December 1941 through August 1945 production (less Prototypes): 19,881
Balance of Aircraft Available from December 1941 through August 1945 production (less Prototypes Trainers): 4,978
Working from USN and USAAF end of war statistical studies:
USN claims:
Air to Air Combat: 9,291
Destroyed on Ground: 5,854
Sub total: 15,145
USAAF claims:
Air to Air Combat: 6,368
Destroyed on Ground: 2,750
Destroyed, Unspecified: 1,225
Sub total: 10,343
Total US Forces Claims:
Air to Air Combat: 15,659
Destroyed on Ground: 8,604
Destroyed, Unspecified: 1,225
Total: 25,488
From other sources:
RNZAF claims: 103
NEIAF claims: 62
AVG claims: 296
FAA claims: (still working on that one, uh, one, two, three, four . . . )
RAF claims: ???
RAAF claims: ???
And . . .
US AA fire claims: This one is a little tough because I don't believe anyone ever counted. There's also the problem of multiple ships shooting a single targets, kind of like the problem of apportioning credit to bomber formations for destruction of interceptors. I've some information on shootdowns with VT fused AA fire and the general rule of thumb was that the VT fused shells improved efficiency by about 60%. So working backwards and forwards from the data I have and allowing for the general tempo of operations I've estimated this number to be 550. This is probably a little high.
Thus, so far, I've come up with a total of about 26,499 Japanese planes destroyed either in the air or on the ground as a result of some combat action. Frankly, just looking at that number and keeping in mind the results I have yet to obtain on other Allied forces, I really can't see it going over 27,000.
Comparing the Japanese reported combat losses to the estimated 27,000 Allied claims, we come up with a variance of 375 in over-claims, roughly 1.4% of the total reported Japanese losses. On the other hand, comparing the calculated Japanese combat losses to the estimated 27,000 Allied claims, we come up with a variance of 3275 in under-claims, roughly 10.8% of calculated Japanese combat losses. In perfect world, with perfect information, I suspect the answer lies somewhere in between. In any case, it looks as though the Japanese combat losses compared to Allied claims should at least come out even.
Also of interest is the balance of Japanese wartime production to the total Japanese losses, 19,881. An interesting number because it far exceeds what the Allied forces found upon the occupation of the Japanese home islands. They found on hand some 12,741 aircraft of all types, including 720 fighters, 69 transports, 1,118 trainers, 37 gliders, and 10,797 "miscellaneous" (which, one would presume included such nefarious types as bombers, floatplanes, and seaplanes as well as a few late war prototypes).
Even with the presumption that there were Japanese aircraft located outside the home island (and there were) is it rational to believe that they numbered in excess of 7,100 when compared to the number that should be left just from wartime production? Is it reasonable to believe that they numbered almost 22,500. I could, with a large stretch of imagination, maybe, just maybe, believe that there could be 7,100 Japanese aircraft overseas, not in the home islands, at the end of the war, but I'd never believe there were 22,500. So, I'm left with an interesting question. Where did all these airplanes come from, or, better, where did they go? Or did the occupation forces simply screw up their count? Or, (Gasp!) could the Japanese have understated their losses?
I dunno.
At any rate, I am perfectly satisfied that the USN and USAAF certainly did not claim to have destroyed more airplanes than the Japanese ever had. I am also perfectly satisfied that the USN and USAAF did not claim to have destroyed more airplanes that the Japanese admitted to losing in combat.
Any light that anyone could shine on the issue would be welcomed.
Regards,
Rich
I haven't found my source on the number (when I found it, more than once, I didn't expect to have to reproduce it nor did expect to have trouble finding it again). Here are some references I have found:
