buffnut453
Captain
I don't think Japan had the ability to achieve anything substantive with the uranium and certainly lacked a means of delivering a weapon. Therefore impact is minimal, IMHO.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Ad: This forum contains affiliate links to products on Amazon and eBay. More information in Terms and rules
I don't think Japan had the ability to achieve anything substantive with the uranium and certainly lacked a means of delivering a weapon. Therefore impact is minimal, IMHO.
You have got hold of the wrong end of the stick here I'm afraid. I wasn't suggesting that the Japanese would have been able to produce atomic weapons if they had received the uranium shipment, what I was referring to was that the U.S. needed the uranium for it's own use.There was zero possibility (no pun intended) of Japan acquiring the bomb, even with all the processed uranium in the world.
However I dont agree that they lacked the delivery systems. A nuclear carrying suicide aircraft would have the ability to destroy an entire fleet, even if it missed. What sort of effect would that have on the USN offensive capability???
What with everything that was happening around them the Japanese must have been able to work out that they had lost the war, and yes any country in it's right mind would much sooner surrender to the Americans than the Russians. But you have to remember that the Japanese didn't know how many atomic bombs the Americans had access to. Until the American capture of the shipment of uranium from Germany the Americans were almost out of the stuff. I don't know any of this for a fact of course as historians argue over how much uranium the Americans had and also whether or not the captured German uranium could be used for making a bomb.
However I dont agree that they lacked the delivery systems. A nuclear carrying suicide aircraft would have the ability to destroy an entire fleet, even if it missed. What sort of effect would that have on the USN offensive capability???
If they managed to get to the very centre of a carrier battle group then maybe. However, to get to that central point, the aircraft would have to traverse 17 miles of surrounding defences. Given the likely number of nuclear weapons that Japan might have been able to produce (bear in mind America's effort just to get 2 weapons ready), I think the odds of success were remote to zero.
We would need to analyse the number or proportions of suicide attacks that resched the outer rings of a given task force.
We have to approach this in the understanding that its complete hypothetical. it never happened, neither was it ever going to happen. So, any consideration of this alternative history has to be on that understanding.
But let me try and paint some sort of picture that at least gives this hypothetical some air of plausibility.
Lets say the Japanese are able to achieve one sided victories at Coral Sea and Midway. they capture Port Moresby, Noumea and push onto Fiji, as planned. Midway is captured, and the USN watched closely. There are several inculive battles in 1942-3. Equipment wise the IJN is able to develop a replacement for the Zero, it protects its merchant fleet better, fortifies its outer defences and undertakes some further exapansions and consiolidation of its fleet. Operations in China are somewhat more successful, and the British pushed out of Burma. In summary, the Japanese are successful in their 1942 objectives, and are given maybe 2 year respite to prepre their defences.
Say the Germans develop nuclear weapons, and in typical German style are able to produce more compact, light versions of e bomb for their twin engined bombers. None of that is imlausible. It means the final US drives will be occurring in 1947-8, rather than 1945, against Japanese airforces far more experienced, and far better equipped. I dont think it impausible, for example, for the Japanese to develop the Kikka Jet a/c as a bomber, not dis-similar to the AR-234, or its four engined equivalent. Could the USN 1947 era aircraft cope with such aircraft. Doubtful. In 1949, when the USN went toi war in Korea, its aircraft were hard pressed deaing with the MIG-15. Granted, the US had virtually stopped carrier borne aircraft development post war, but we would likley see Bearcats on t5he carriers, fighting kikka style jet techs....
that would suggest to me that it might be a possibility for the Japanese to get a bomb over a US carrier TF. As I said, a complete hypothetica, no correct answer. im not even claiming this to be a likley outcome...its not, but was there any scenario that might see the japanese getting an atomic device over a USN Task Force. I think so....