P-61 alternatives

[wuzak]

Nevertheless having the capacity to attack the USA I believe should have been a priority since US entry into war was inevitable and it would tie up significant US resources and the development of the Me 264/6m (with 6 jumo 211) resolves many problems. The US was already developing aircraft such as the B19 and B36 to do this before any German efforts.

What about the German resources that developing the Me 264 would have chewed up?

The US could better afford using resources to defend its coast than the Germans could attacking it.

 

[Koopernic]

The Me264 was to be a strategic bomber from the start. The RLM's interest in it being an "Amerika bomber" came about in '42 with the idea of having it built with six engines.
The long-range recon role came about when the Kreigsmarine considered the 264 as a replacement for the Fw200.

I'm recalling Frank Vann's biography of Willy Messerschmitt. It was clear the initial versions were to be used as long range reconnaissance aircraft and as couriers to connect Germany to the far east and maybe sth america. They were too underpowered, under armed and under armoured and short ranged (at 13000km). In the fullness of time they should develop into a 17000km range system using 2400hp DB603L or DB603H engines and remote controlled armament.

The B-36 had a 10,000 mile range cruising at 230mph, its six R-4360s running for over 43 hours. The B-36 also had provisions for a 'relief crew,' unlike the Me-264. The R-4360 was a generation advanced over the BMW-801.

Id argue the point. Big doesn't mean sophisticated. The R-4360 may have been an engineering marvel but was not a commercial success suggesting it was also an inefficient weapon. Furthermore the path to long range was clear and it didn't involved piston engines. Unlike piston engines jet engines do no loose efficiency(become fuel inefficient) at high altitude or high speed. Jets can get long range by flying high, where there is little drag, using small, low parasitic drag wings with high lift devices for landing. The plan was to use jets to aid the Me 264's range and performance.

The BMW 801F was expected to achieve 2600hp and used lots of advanced technology such as vacuum cast heads.
The turbo charged versions the BMW801-TJ1, TJ2 and TQ had critical altitudes beyond any allied engine.
When the 18 cylinder BMW802 was cancelled the technology was put into a program known as the BMW801R: variable pitch cooling fan, 2 stage 4 speed supercharger, intercooler and after cooler. Intended for the Ta 152C but a likely candidate for the Me 264.
The 2800-3000hp Jumo 222E/F after a few years of development was ready enough to be scheduled for production in late 1944 and was also a candiate for developed Me 264.


Dont you think the B-36 is rather a dreadnaught or battleship? An impressive but vulnerable system, too many eggs in one basket. Early versions were slow and big targets for FLAK or the evolving SAM's.

The Germans did have a number of indigenous navigation aids, none of which were any good on the western side of the atlantic unless deployed on buoys or ships.

The Germans did have a number of smart bombs and guidance systems. Only a few of which made it into service in any numbers or at a time when they could have been used against the US (before late 1944 or 1945).
Most or all of the smart bombs/missiles required outside stowage (to big to fit in bomb bay) which plays havoc with cruise speeds and range.

The US was already using up a fair amount of resources in defence of the coast, like shore batteries, AA guns, coastal patrol by both ships and planes. It is possible for a U-Boat to place a radio navigation buoy of the coast of the US, it is also possible for the US defences to sink such a U-boat.
Is the U-boat better employed attacking shipping or trying to place radio navigation buoys?
How long will a radio Navigation buoy last? and how accurate is it's location? Coastal waters off the US coast can be a lot deeper than the North sea (or the same depth, depends on location) but hundreds of feet of anchor line can mean some drift as currant/winds change. Not to mention the US might take a dim view of a radio beacon and send planes/ships to investigate and eliminate it. How many days/ missions is each buoy good for?

Celestial navigation for buoy placement only works on clear nights. Unless buoy is placed on clear night and only activated upon radio signal from approaching aircraft to begin transmitting several days later?

Sounds like the Germans would be tying up a considerable amount of resources too. Americans weren't totally stupid, they knew where the likely targets were and the likely approaches.

I think the Germans had one over the horizon radio navigation systems good for a few 1000 km called sonnenstrahl or sunray. It was an electronically rotating 'talking becon' I can get a link. The allies used it as well and so when the Germans coded it the allies bombed the stations so the Germans stopped coding them and the allies left them alone. The US managed to create LORAN.

Buoys can be pre placed and timed to surface and transmit or be trigged.

Ground mapping radar is maybe the best way,

IIRC EGONs were range limited same way as Oboe, so not much help for putting buoys in right places in the middle of the Atlantic. And the Atlantic is very deep and besides winds it has strong currents, how to keep the buoys in the right place? U-boats could place then fairly accurately but when? If they got their orders when leaving their harbours, there was a great risk that timing would have gone wrong, weather, technical difficulties, Allies bombing raids might well disturb the attack timetable and so the buoys would have drifted away from their right positions. U-boats could of course sent the signals themselves, but that would be risky. If they were given the release time for the buoys by radio, IMHO the probably way, there is a possibility that Enigma would give away the attack times of the follow-up raids. At the first time British would probably have been puzzled but after the first raid guessed the connection and so the next orders might well have been early warnings of impending attacks.

So none of these weapon systems were ready for use when red flags were raised over the Reichstag, less so for 1944 attacks against US. And as I wrote earlier, we don't know the real performance and handling of a fully equipped and armed Me 264. IIRC RLM thought that Messerschmitt tended to give over-optimistic performance estimates and that those of Focke-Wulf were usually more realistic.

My assertion is that they could have had something ready by the end of 1943 and that US defences would be challenged.

We should also keep in mind that the USN had active carriers in the Atlantic, especially in the convoy lanes.

So the chance of intercept does not only lie within range of the North American coastline.

They would be withdrawn into a defensive posture and their position would be known.

You'd be seeing the F6F-3N going to the Atlantic along with the creation of radar pickets ala' Okinawa but a few months earlier.

What about the German resources that developing the Me 264 would have chewed up?

The US could better afford using resources to defend its coast than the Germans could attacking it.

Think of the allied resources. The energy wasted in the ME 210, Ju 288 and He 177 program could have funded the Me 264 1.5 times over.

 

[Peter Gunn]

They would be withdrawn into a defensive posture and their position would be known.

I don't think you realize just how many escort carriers the U. S. Navy had, 40 +/- Bogue class and 19 Casablanca class in commission (out of 122 total all escort carrier classes) by the end of 1943 alone.

Also, where do you get the idea that they'd be "withdrawn into a defensive posture..."?

I'm sorry, the Navy is many things, stupid is not one of them. I'd wager they'd station escort carriers and their groups along known flight paths leading to the North American continent.

 

[Milosh]

Didn't some of the convoy routes pass under some of the proposed bomber routes? Another sets of eyes, and ears, to spot the bombers.

 

[GrauGeist]

There was also Bermuda, which had a joint Royal Navy and Royal Canadian Navy base, US Navy base, RAF and USAAF bases.

 

[Milosh]

There was also Bermuda, which had a joint Royal Navy and Royal Canadian Navy base, US Navy base, RAF and USAAF bases.

and Iceland. Not sure when Greenland got bases.

 

[GrauGeist]

and Iceland. Not sure when Greenland got bases.

I think that between the bases on Bermuda and on Newfoundland, the route to the US coastline from France becomes a very narrow option.
Add to that, the convoy routes to England fall in that corridor, which have escort carrier activity PLUS the afore-mentioned ASW patrols, who would at the very least, provide an early warning/intercept solution.

 

[ThomasP]

re "The energy wasted in the ME 210, Ju 288 and He 177 program could have funded the Me 264 1.5 times over."

My apologies, but I am a bit confused about the actual timeline possibilities vs (hopefully somewhat realistic) potential timeline relative to the Me 264 family. If I am understanding Koopernic's argument correctly, it is that the Me 264 could have been developed into at least a nuisance level threat to the US east coast, thereby rerouting resources used against the Germans or Japanese to the defense of the continental US.

I agree that the Germans had the technical ability to develop the Me 264 into an inter-continental bomber. My question is what would be the timeline if this had taken place. I realize we are assuming that the war did not progress exactly as it did in reality, but I would still be interested in getting a better grasp on a potential timeline relative to the successful development of the Me 264 family.

Not sure if this is particularly clear. Obviously - if the Germans could have developed reliable engines early enough, solved the aerodynamic problems early enough, and been able to allocate the resources necessary to develop/manufacture early enough - then the Me 264 would have had some significant effect on the US approach to fighting the war.

An example is the statement that the Germans intentionally did not provoke the US (any more than necessary via the U-boat campaign) in order to delay/prevent the entry of the US into the war. However, once the US entered the war I am quite sure that Hitler etal would very much have preferred to have the option of bombing the US.

Another question I have is the potential for generating more than a nuisance threat, assuming that the war went better for the Germans than it did in reality? Examples being success in the air war of the BoB and a subsequent cease fire of some sort (not an invasion of the UK as that was basically unrealistic) resulting in no bases for 8th AF, and/or spectacular success of Operation Barbarossa along the lines hoped for before it went sideways.

My input into the discussion is that even during the height of the Cold War (late-1950s-mid-1960s) the SAC estimate for a successful round trip of a B-52 (that did not encounter the Soviet air defense system) was less than 40%. Admittedly, the ranges were longer for the US attack against the missile fields and heartland cities in the SU, but navigation technology and reliability of (jet) engines were greatly improved over that in WWII.

Also IIRC, the operational losses to the B-29s in the bombing campaign vs Japan (before the US had emergency landing bases closer to Japan than the TO locations) were horrendous - as high or higher than in the ETO.

 

[Dimlee]

It would be interesting to see the reliability of any recip engine after sorties of 40-48 hours. Plus a max power run at the 20 something hour point. There is doing things on paper, and there is doing them for real. I'm not saying it was impossible, just it was going to a bit of a stretch with minimum margins for safety.

Cheers,
Biff

ANT-25 stayed in the air over 60 hours in several record flights in 1936-1937.
Tupolev ANT-25 - Wikipedia

 

[jmcalli2]

The Germans did have a number of indigenous navigation aids, none of which were any good on the western side of the atlantic unless deployed on buoys or ships.

The Germans did have a number of smart bombs and guidance systems. Only a few of which made it into service in any numbers or at a time when they could have been used against the US (before late 1944 or 1945).
Most or all of the smart bombs/missiles required outside stowage (to big to fit in bomb bay) which plays havoc with cruise speeds and range.

The US was already using up a fair amount of resources in defence of the coast, like shore batteries, AA guns, coastal patrol by both ships and planes. It is possible for a U-Boat to place a radio navigation buoy of the coast of the US, it is also possible for the US defences to sink such a U-boat.
Is the U-boat better employed attacking shipping or trying to place radio navigation buoys?
How long will a radio Navigation buoy last? and how accurate is it's location? Coastal waters off the US coast can be a lot deeper than the North sea (or the same depth, depends on location) but hundreds of feet of anchor line can mean some drift as currant/winds change. Not to mention the US might take a dim view of a radio beacon and send planes/ships to investigate and eliminate it. How many days/ missions is each buoy good for?

Celestial navigation for buoy placement only works on clear nights. Unless buoy is placed on clear night and only activated upon radio signal from approaching aircraft to begin transmitting several days later?

Sounds like the Germans would be tying up a considerable amount of resources too. Americans weren't totally stupid, they knew where the likely targets were and the likely approaches.

The 437 Heavy Aircraft Carriers and their escorts would sink all U-boats.

 

[jmcalli2]

jmcalli2,

Yes, and those 4360s were starting production in 1944 (according to wiki) and had growing pains. And this from PW who had been engineering and producing large numbers of radials. While the 801 is a good engine, doing 40-48 hour sorties in 1943 is another. Also, where were the divert fields, how much drag penalty is there on having 1, 2 or 3 engines out. Lose an engine, continue, lose another may result in not having enough gas to get back (battle damage as well). Do you put U-Boats along the route, in listening mode for a Mayday calls? How many assets do you throw at something of questionable return?

This came up before, and I think the US would have contained it in a 6-12 month period between radar (picket ships or other) to offer GCI for fighters or P-61 type aircraft. Scenario, a city on the East coast gets hit. Scramble fighters and you may or may not get a successful intercept. Install radar (ship borne or otherwise), and you now have the ability to intercept them on the inbound and or the outbound leg. The end result is few if any now make a successful RTB. You can also make fighters optimized for bomber intercept over the US & Coastal waters. Less armor, optimized weapons, etc.

Use enigma and other spy systems to determine where they are launching from and destroy them on the ground. Yes, it would use resources that otherwise would have been for offensive devices but I think in the big scheme of things it would be almost negligible.

Cheers,
Biff

Hey, somebody asked for a piston engine that could run for 40+ hours. They didn't ask for a time frame. The R-4360 did.

 

[jmcalli2]

I'm recalling Frank Vann's biography of Willy Messerschmitt. It was clear the initial versions were to be used as long range reconnaissance aircraft and as couriers to connect Germany to the far east and maybe sth america. They were too underpowered, under armed and under armoured and short ranged (at 13000km). In the fullness of time they should develop into a 17000km range system using 2400hp DB603L or DB603H engines and remote controlled armament.





Id argue the point. Big doesn't mean sophisticated. The R-4360 may have been an engineering marvel but was not a commercial success suggesting it was also an inefficient weapon. Furthermore the path to long range was clear and it didn't involved piston engines. Unlike piston engines jet engines do no loose efficiency(become fuel inefficient) at high altitude or high speed. Jets can get long range by flying high, where there is little drag, using small, low parasitic drag wings with high lift devices for landing. The plan was to use jets to aid the Me 264's range and performance.

The BMW 801F was expected to achieve 2600hp and used lots of advanced technology such as vacuum cast heads.
The turbo charged versions the BMW801-TJ1, TJ2 and TQ had critical altitudes beyond any allied engine.
When the 18 cylinder BMW802 was cancelled the technology was put into a program known as the BMW801R: variable pitch cooling fan, 2 stage 4 speed supercharger, intercooler and after cooler. Intended for the Ta 152C but a likely candidate for the Me 264.
The 2800-3000hp Jumo 222E/F after a few years of development was ready enough to be scheduled for production in late 1944 and was also a candiate for developed Me 264.


Dont you think the B-36 is rather a dreadnaught or battleship? An impressive but vulnerable system, too many eggs in one basket. Early versions were slow and big targets for FLAK or the evolving SAM's.



I think the Germans had one over the horizon radio navigation systems good for a few 1000 km called sonnenstrahl or sunray. It was an electronically rotating 'talking becon' I can get a link. The allies used it as well and so when the Germans coded it the allies bombed the stations so the Germans stopped coding them and the allies left them alone. The US managed to create LORAN.

Buoys can be pre placed and timed to surface and transmit or be trigged.

Ground mapping radar is maybe the best way,



My assertion is that they could have had something ready by the end of 1943 and that US defences would be challenged.




They would be withdrawn into a defensive posture and their position would be known.




Think of the allied resources. The energy wasted in the ME 210, Ju 288 and He 177 program could have funded the Me 264 1.5 times over.

Good to know Germany won the war using 1940 tech.

 

[jmcalli2]

I'm recalling Frank Vann's biography of Willy Messerschmitt. It was clear the initial versions were to be used as long range reconnaissance aircraft and as couriers to connect Germany to the far east and maybe sth america. They were too underpowered, under armed and under armoured and short ranged (at 13000km). In the fullness of time they should develop into a 17000km range system using 2400hp DB603L or DB603H engines and remote controlled armament.





Id argue the point. Big doesn't mean sophisticated. The R-4360 may have been an engineering marvel but was not a commercial success suggesting it was also an inefficient weapon. Furthermore the path to long range was clear and it didn't involved piston engines. Unlike piston engines jet engines do no loose efficiency(become fuel inefficient) at high altitude or high speed. Jets can get long range by flying high, where there is little drag, using small, low parasitic drag wings with high lift devices for landing. The plan was to use jets to aid the Me 264's range and performance.

The BMW 801F was expected to achieve 2600hp and used lots of advanced technology such as vacuum cast heads.
The turbo charged versions the BMW801-TJ1, TJ2 and TQ had critical altitudes beyond any allied engine.
When the 18 cylinder BMW802 was cancelled the technology was put into a program known as the BMW801R: variable pitch cooling fan, 2 stage 4 speed supercharger, intercooler and after cooler. Intended for the Ta 152C but a likely candidate for the Me 264.
The 2800-3000hp Jumo 222E/F after a few years of development was ready enough to be scheduled for production in late 1944 and was also a candiate for developed Me 264.


Dont you think the B-36 is rather a dreadnaught or battleship? An impressive but vulnerable system, too many eggs in one basket. Early versions were slow and big targets for FLAK or the evolving SAM's.



I think the Germans had one over the horizon radio navigation systems good for a few 1000 km called sonnenstrahl or sunray. It was an electronically rotating 'talking becon' I can get a link. The allies used it as well and so when the Germans coded it the allies bombed the stations so the Germans stopped coding them and the allies left them alone. The US managed to create LORAN.

Buoys can be pre placed and timed to surface and transmit or be trigged.

Ground mapping radar is maybe the best way,



My assertion is that they could have had something ready by the end of 1943 and that US defences would be challenged.




They would be withdrawn into a defensive posture and their position would be known.




Think of the allied resources. The energy wasted in the ME 210, Ju 288 and He 177 program could have funded the Me 264 1.5 times over.

"Not a commercial success."

Over 18,000 built.

Used on 29 different aircraft, some of which remained in service from 1947 through 1978, over 30 years.

I'd invest in it.

 

[swampyankee]

I really doubt "their [the carriers'] positions would be known." First, as posted by Mr Gunn, the USN wasn't collectively stupid; they were quite capable of, I don't know, spoofing their own signatures, so "carriers " would be in a lot more locations than the USN had carriers. Second, oceans are big.

The US had the potential to deal with this sort of attack; that it never needed to do so just proves it never needed to, not that it couldn't. The Me264 is still an unescorted bomber with a level of performance inadequate to survive without escort.

 

[BiffF15]

ANT-25 stayed in the air over 60 hours in several record flights in 1936-1937.
Tupolev ANT-25 - Wikipedia

Those are some tremendous flights, all in a single engine plane!

 

[wuzak]

Think of the allied resources. The energy wasted in the ME 210, Ju 288 and He 177 program could have funded the Me 264 1.5 times over.

What of the Allied resources?

What would the US need to do differently? They were already on the way to building 100,000 fighters of various types.

How many fighters would they need to hold back to deal with the threat of a handful of Me 264s? A squadron of P-47s ought to be enough.

I'm recalling Frank Vann's biography of Willy Messerschmitt. It was clear the initial versions were to be used as long range reconnaissance aircraft and as couriers to connect Germany to the far east and maybe sth america. They were too underpowered, under armed and under armoured and short ranged (at 13000km). In the fullness of time they should develop into a 17000km range system using 2400hp DB603L or DB603H engines and remote controlled armament.

The BMW 801F was expected to achieve 2600hp and used lots of advanced technology such as vacuum cast heads.
The turbo charged versions the BMW801-TJ1, TJ2 and TQ had critical altitudes beyond any allied engine.
When the 18 cylinder BMW802 was cancelled the technology was put into a program known as the BMW801R: variable pitch cooling fan, 2 stage 4 speed supercharger, intercooler and after cooler. Intended for the Ta 152C but a likely candidate for the Me 264.
The 2800-3000hp Jumo 222E/F after a few years of development was ready enough to be scheduled for production in late 1944 and was also a candiate for developed Me 264.

When are all these wonder engines to be available?

The Me 264 was only fitted with Jumo 211s because there weren't any of the intended DB 603s available.

Will they have enough fuel to fly to the US? The Jumo 222E/F "scheduled for production in late 1944" would be available after the Oil Plan had significantly reduced the Luftwaffe's supply of aviation fuel.

The fuel situation was so dire that they even had a program to develop an aviation steam turbine for use in the Me 264, which would run on 70% pulverised coal/30% aviation fuel.

 

[ThomasP]

Hey Koopernic,

Am I misunderstanding the discussion re the Me 264, from my post#128: "Obviously - if the Germans could have developed reliable engines early enough, solved the aerodynamic problems early enough, and been able to allocate the resources necessary to develop/manufacture early enough - then the Me 264 would have had some significant effect on the US approach to fighting the war."

Is there any question that the Germans, in the real timeline, did not have the time or resources needed to develop the Me 264 into a serious threat?

 

[jetcal1]

If the Me-264 had been flying and operational in 1940-41? It would have been a great way to hit the Navy Yard in NYC, along with the Grumman and Republic plants on Long Island with nuisance raids. The 264 was a tactical dead end after mid-1942 when the combination of radar and the 56th equipped with the P-47B (Which would have been fine over Long Island Sound.)

(Edit: Let's not forget the Shipyards further up the coast as well.)

 

[GrauGeist]

Pretty sure the Me264 (or any other strategic bomber) would have been put to better use striking viable targets like tank factories, power plants, aircraft manufacturers, etc. in in the Soviet Union rather than random and expensive nuisance raids on the U.S.

 

[wuzak]

If the Me-264 had been flying and operational in 1940-41?

Was going to difficult to get the Me 264 into service before the end of 1941, since development only started around that 1940-41 time frame.