Pearl Harbor, 7th December 1939.....

renrich said:

The Pearl Harbor attack was an unmitigated disaster, for the Japanese.

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Not on its own, the Axis had a good chance to defeat the Allies, but poor strategy doctrine sealed the deal

But perhaps a more interesting plausible scenario, suppose that Japan had occupied Dutch territory along with French in the fall of 1940, would the US intervene to protect the Dutch colonies?

FB, I think that the day the US got in the war was the day the the Axis was doomed because Hitler had already attacked the USSR and there was no way the Axis could win short of a miracle weapon like a nuclear bomb. On the other hand, if Japan had done as you mentioned, I don't believe the US would have gotten in when they did. Ultimately, unless Hitler changed his whole personality, the US would have gotten in but Japan might have been able ultimately to negotiate a deal with the US to keep the Dutch and French colonies under the guise of letting them have self government. You know the drill.

Isn't it amazing how far this thread has come.

Night Fighter Nut said:

Isn't it amazing how far this thread has come.

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Yep

renrich said:

FB, I think that the day the US got in the war was the day the the Axis was doomed because Hitler had already attacked the USSR and there was no way the Axis could win short of a miracle weapon like a nuclear bomb.

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It was possible IMO, but only if the Axis started from Pearl + 1 with a total combined sub offensive against Allied shipping (but that's another thread).

renrich said:

On the other hand, if Japan had done as you mentioned, I don't believe the US would have gotten in when they did. Ultimately, unless Hitler changed his whole personality,

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In the summer/fall of 1941, I am convinced that there was a "Quid pro Quo" between the US and Anglo/Dutch, to enter the war if Japan attacked. There is simply no way in hell that the British Dutch would provoke the Japanese without a cast-iron guarantee.

There are some hints of this in British documents, but never admitted (AFAIK) in US sources.

However I don't believe that there was any arrangement in 1940. The Japanese would not have the fully organized bases in Indochina, but they should have enough carrier air power to get the job done.

During the BoB it's doubtful that the British could or would spare much of anything to send East

renrich said:

the US would have gotten in but Japan might have been able ultimately to negotiate a deal with the US to keep the Dutch and French colonies under the guise of letting them have self government. You know the drill.

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That would be their goal

I don't believe that FDR could have been able to convince the Congress to declare war on Japan in 1941 or possibly even 1942 if the Japanese had invaded Indo China or the Dutch East Indies and maybe even the British in Hong Kong and Malaya. He could not get the US public ready to declare war against Germany during 1941 because of Britain or the USSR and the US voter was even less interested in colonies in Asia. I would bet that FDR was actually relieved when PH happened, aside from the casualties, and I know Churchill was. If Japan attacking the US was like a mouse crawling up an elephant's leg with rape on his mind, then Germany, with the US in the war with Britain and the USSR was in the position of a rat with the same mission in mind.