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...achieving a one sided victory like that is just implausible IMO
Let's say that, upon the Tone search plane's sighting of a USN surface force, Nagumo preempts Yamaguichi's later suggestion to launch all the available reserve a/c immediately. According to SS, an immediate launch would constitute a strike comprising no more than about 30VT and 34VB and between 12 to 24 VF as escort. There remained 58 VF from which to draw both CAP and Escort. If you assign 24 of the air group VF to escort, you are left with 11 from the CV Air Group and the 21 A6Ms of the 6th Air Group, intended for basing at Midway. A stronger escort will no doubt mean trouble for the USN at their CVs, but also reduces by about half the actual CAP protecting the IJN CV especially during the early USN CV-Based VT and subsequent USN VB attacks so the the chances for damage to the IJN CVs may increase, while losses among USN VT and VB are probably reduced. A toe-to-toe fight between the USN and IJN CVs is likely to be a bloody affair. I expect it will follow the course of the other three CV battles in '42 with heavy IJN aircrew and aircraft losses, sufficient to reduce their effectiveness even if the USN suffers losses and is forced to retire. Protecting the USN CVs will be a CAP comprised of something like two thirds or more of the 56 VF not used as escort. A pitched battle over the CVs of both navies may actually have been more costly than what occurred historically; especially to IJN aircrews if it follows the course of other CV vs CV battles in '42. I think the big difference in outcome would be the preservation of IJN flight decks for future repair and use. However, from what you have said, the increased loss of experienced aircrew and the difficulty in procuring replacement a/c means the repaired IJN flat tops are actually less effective in stopping the USN's operations in SoPac while Watch tower proceeds on schedule with pretty much the CVs historically used.
On that basis, you would expect the early Japanese strike to achieve 14-20 hits. Thats enough to sink two, possibly three carriers, given the DC effectiveness of 1942. but we dont know a lot of things. The effectiveness of the CAP, and whewther the hits are evenly distributed are the most obvious unknowns.
Another thing as well - fighting off the Japanese attacks would have made it rather impossible for the US to launch it's own strikes, much like the problem the Japanese faced. After such an attack, the US would be lucky to launch a full carrier load of planes as a strike. And this would be against the top Japanese pilots, who would have had a better chance to interdict this strike effectively. IMO, the US is lucky to take out one Japanese carrier with a retaliatory strike, and that launching US carrier is also then lost.
Where on Earth did you get that from? Certainly, not from here:The Japanese had zero capability of going for Peal Harbor. Their attack in the first place succeeded because they had complete surprise at every level. Not so after Dec 8th 1941. Any attack after that date would be a disaster for them.
Now there's a coincidence!Yep, I agree. Midway was an 'incredible victory'...
-Incredible Victory, Copyright 1967 by Walter Lord Now there's a coincidence!
Gary, the timing is off for this to be an issue. The IJN strike wouldn't have arrived at the USN units until their decks were long cleared.
There we go, now we're cooking!Nope, no coincidence at all!
Lord's IV was the first Midway book I read before I joined haze gray and under weigh.
Before that, I had built Monogram models of both the SBD and TBF (Grumman ancestor to the A-6 Intruder). Fell in love with Naval Air from that point on… Civil Air Patrol wants me to wear air force blue… The mere thought gives me hives.
Nope, no coincidence at all!
Lord's IV was the first Midway book I read before I joined haze gray and under weigh.
Before that, I had built Monogram models of both the SBD and TBF (Grumman ancestor to the A-6 Intruder). Fell in love with Naval Air from that point on… Civil Air Patrol wants me to wear air force blue… The mere thought gives me hives.
- If Midway's CO Simard sends at least some of its long-legged F2A's as escorts for the island's morning attacks perhaps some hits are scored and the plumes of smoke from the fires created provide a navigational beacon for the CV a/c to home in on. The rookie-Marine's SBD glide bomb attack was a near thing with a few near misses coming within 50 yards of the Hiryu..
- If CHAG Ring had not lead his 34 SBDs on a wild goose chase across the northern Pacific but instead had taken the same course as VT leader Waldron, it's conceivable that Hiryu would have been destroyed along with her sisters and Yorktown survives the battle.
- If somebody had been smart enough to order all a/c to use a common strike frequency, VF-6's errant Gray and his 9 companions orbiting at 22,0000 ft above Kido Butai, might have been alerted to VT-8's attack and descended from their perch to cover the attack and there might have been other squadron survivors besides Ensign Gay.
- Yet VT-6's Lindsey did send a distress call on their common freq to Gray's escorts but it wasn't received. Had it been received perhaps their own disaster might have been mitigated.
- Had McClusky's assignment of targets been heard understood, more of the VS squadron's SBDs would have come down on Akagi. Even on an individual pilot bases, this error seems particularly egregious as VS-6 was not AFAIK, a rookie unit.
- if the electronics on Leslie's VB-3 SBDs is not fried, more bombs are likely to land on Soryu.
Where on Earth did you get that from? Certainly, not from here:
As to CAP performance at Midway. The only CAP truly engaged did extremely well and set a standard for the rest of 1942. Roughly a dozen VF-42/3 F4F-4s used in two separate sorties destroyed ~21 IJN a/c (11 VB, 3 VF and 5 VT and 2 VF) out of a total of 28 VB VT protected by 12 VF escort. That's 21 of the 40 A/C in the strike or over 50% losses. (my estimate of 2/3rds below is probably over optimistic from USN standpoint.)
And if Waldron had followed Ring, neither flight would have attacked the carriers. And more planes on the Akagi are not going to sink it twice.
There are a ton of "what if's" that could go the Japanese way as well.
- What if the carriers were struck when planes were not being readied?
- What if the US did not break the code and the Japanese plan went well and the US carriers were ambushed instead? Had the Japanese taken Midway, they could at least put a force of float planes there by the time the American TF's responded.
- What if the Japanese CAP showed better discipline and kept a force at higher altitude to intercept the Dive Bombers?
- What if either the Shokaku or Zuikaku had been available? Best chance would be to assign the Shokaku's air teams to the Zuikaku.
- What if the Yammamoto decided not to divide his forces, and sent the light carriers on the Aleutian strike with the main carrier striking force?
Then we have a 5 or 6 IJN CV vs 5 USN CV scenario. IMHO, time delays do not generally work in favor of the IJN.- What If Kido Butai had awaited a refit to bring its plane complement up to the standard numbers, instead of sending the carriers out with about 80% of their normal complement? And one thing that is often overlooked, the planes of Kido Butai, even the functional ones would well have used a refit, or some major maintenance to bring their performance up to standards.
I think really one issue is really being looked at as a potential "Story changer". That is the Tone scout plane not having technical difficulties that morning.
Do you know if these numbers are claims or confirmed. Im at work so i cant really confirm or deny at the moment, but the numbers do seem high to me.
At Coral Sea, the VFs claimed over 40 aircraft splashed in the main strike. Didnt happen. more like 12 were lost tot he CAP. the oft quoted figure of 80 aircraft lost in that battle, includes aircraft that went down with Shoho, search planes shot down, aircraft lost on the deck when Cardiv 5 was hit, aircraft sent out on search that failed to return, aircraft simply pushed over the side to make room for additional aircraft returning. 80, in itself is inconsistent with what few Japanese records there are. The USN pilots had their advantages, but like everybody, they have to bend over and take their medicine as far as overclaiming.
The Japanese thought Midway was in the bag. There was no "if" about that. As far as their going to Pearl from Midway, they'd have had Midway off their back. As far as Nagumo coming straight across to Pearl, instead, as Emmons and others had speculated he might, that was a threat to be respected, given the capabilities of that force, and even the big brains at CINCPAC knew it.You said it "What about going right from there to Pearl? They had the horses for it.".
The IJN had zero capability of launching nothing more than a night time nuisance raid on Pearl Harbor, if and only if, they captured Midway.
And the "if" part of taking the atoll is an extreme long shot on their part.