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How has the RN's stand-off AtS ordnance improved since the Harrier was in service?
I'd imagine that the air-launched weapons have not only been improved with range, but electronics that would increase lethality, too.
The RN bought the QEII and POW as they are, and are acquiring F-35B instead of the F-35C, due to their perceived probable and possibly problematic mission requirements. They see the need to project power against sea and land targets, possibly without a carrier available. Obviously, if you can afford (in terms of the number of carriers and airframes and/or in terms of having shore bases with improved runways available to operate from) then a CTOL carrier would be best. But if you have to operate on the possibility (probability most likely) of having to operate your airframes away from ship, then VTOL and/or STOVL is the way to go.
The USMC is buying around 350x F-35B for 16 operational Sqn. They are also buying around 70x F-35C, but I think this is only to placate the USN by supplying 2x operational Sqn for the CVNs. So as far as the USMC is concerned (who historically have faced many of the same operational problems that the RN/FAA has - ie operating form shore in somewhat primitive conditions in order to continuously provide support for their ground forces) the F-35B is the way to go.
The USN with its ability to move multiple CVN to the area of conflict can potentially put as many or more high performance aircraft in an area than all but 3 or 4 countries. The RN with only 2 or even 3 carriers (CTOL or otherwise) does not have the ability to hammer any serious threat country into the ground.
I do not know how much the USMC and the RAF/FAA have done on their ownsome in terms of training for operations from other than regular airfields and carrier decks. However, about a year ago the USMC and personnel from the RAF/FAA spent some time working out what was needed for landing and take-off using roadways and PSP with special mattress type runways. The 'exercise' was held here in the US using US supplied F-35Bs and lasted about 2 months IIRC.
I do not know how much the USMC and the RAF/FAA have done on their ownsome in terms of training for operations from other than regular airfields and carrier decks. However, about a year ago the USMC and personnel from the RAF/FAA spent some time working out what was needed for landing and take-off using roadways and PSP with special mattress type runways. The 'exercise' was held here in the US using US supplied F-35Bs and lasted about 2 months IIRC.
I think Norway and the UK (maybe the US as well?) did something similar more recently - maybe last summer or fall?
I think this adds to your argument.Again, I go back to my point about doctrine and training. The UK stopped training to operate the Harrier GR7/9 under austere conditions (ie dispersed ops away from traditional airfields) in the mid-90s. AFAIK, they've never tried to operate the F-35 under austere conditions.
The USMC has done some trials operating the F-35 from a disused highway but I think they're still a long way from being able to do that operationally for an extended period.
I'll believe the propaganda about the F-35 fighting from austere environments when I actually see consistent, realistic training by either military. Talking about it is one thing. Doing it consistently and effectively is entirely different. If you're not training to do it today, then you either won't do it during conflict…or you'll apply the "learn as you go" principle which could lead to all sorts of logistical, personnel, and technical problems.
Also, it's worth noting that carrier-capable aircraft can be flown from traditional airfields. The EA-18G fleet includes dedicated "concrete squadrons" (officially they're "expeditionary") that are not carrier-qualified.
If the UK and USMC are serious about STOVL as a means of delivering survivable air power, then they need to train for it…and train hard. In the good old days of the Cd War, the Harriers worked up to completing full TACEVALs while operating from dispersed hides off-base. We need to be able to do that with F-35 to demonstrate it's a real capability rather than just a romantic pipe-dream.