US guarantees Taiwan security. Now what?

[Admiral Beez]

The ambiguity is gone, replaced by a defacto security guarantee of Taiwan.

MSN

www.msn.com

So, now what? Will the USN move a CBG or ARG to Taiwan?

 

[pgeno71]

Ambiguity restored... that's all I'll say.

After Biden's Taiwan remarks make waves, Austin reiterates US policy hasn't changed - Breaking Defense

 

[ThomasP]

Not really any ambiguity. Every time China has indulged any serious saber rattling about Taiwan the US has deployed a carrier group and/or other significant naval assets to the area. The implication was clear that we would take military action if China attacked Taiwan. China knows this. The only difference now is Biden just transmitted it in the clear.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Not really any ambiguity. Every time China has indulged any serious saber rattling about Taiwan the US has deployed a carrier group and/or other significant naval assets to the area. The implication was clear that we would take military action if China attacked Taiwan. China knows this. The only difference now is Biden just transmitted it in the clear.

True, but it's not exactly the same as Japan or South Korea where the US maintains a garrison. Now that would settle the ambiguity.

 

[Shinpachi]

Taiwanese are disappointed with the current Ukraine situation as it has turned out that the western support means their own sacrifice for the western benefits. Taiwan will be absorbed into China by negotiation someday. Chinese don't hurry for the result.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Taiwanese are disappointed with the current Ukraine situation as it has turned out that the western support means their own sacrifice for the western benefits. Taiwan will be absorbed into China by negotiation someday. Chinese don't hurry for the result.

In the absence of a defence pact like NATO, the West expects Taiwan to fight for themselves and will support them materially. That sounds pretty fair to me.

One day China will liberalize, the next day Taiwan will want to join up. That day won't come though until at least the 2050s.

 

[Shinpachi]

You can't write a story for them, Admiral, as they will write it by themselves.

 

[soulezoo]

On the Taiwan/China subject, this morning it was reported that the China plan for invasion was leaked and it contained all the details of #of ships, troops, airfields, gas stations and etc. right down to how many blood stations would be required.

 

[Shinpachi]

Their "leaking" is intentional propaganda like iPhone new model.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

On the Taiwan/China subject, this morning it was reported that the China plan for invasion was leaked and it contained all the details of #of ships, troops, airfields, gas stations and etc. right down to how many blood stations would be required.

Do you have a link to the article reporting this?

 

[Dimlee]

Taiwanese volunteer in Ukraine.

Video shows Taiwanese soldier serving in Ukraine's foreign legion | Taiwan News | 2022-05-25 17:34:00

Soldier can be seen holding up Taiwanese flag, declaring 'Slava Ukraini' | 2022-05-25 17:34:00

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[Jagdflieger]

You can't write a story for them, Admiral, as they will write it by themselves.

That is the way it should be, but as in so many instances the USA want's to be the author.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

That is the way it should be, but as in so many instances the USA want's to be the author.

In the case of Taiwan, America has historically practiced ambiguity since the Nixon rapprochement with Beijing, so I'm not sure this is relevant. We've sold the Taiwanese weapons but until he last few months avoided direct statements of military support. It's now open that we had SpecOps troops there, a hundred or so.

And polling shows a solid support for independence from PRC.

Do you have any data on Taiwanese polling to support your point?

 

[Jagdflieger]

In the case of Taiwan, America has historically practiced ambiguity since the Nixon rapprochement with Beijing, so I'm not sure this is relevant. We've sold the Taiwanese weapons but until he last few months avoided direct statements of military support. It's now open that we had SpecOps troops there, a hundred or so.

And polling shows a solid support for independence from PRC.

Do you have any data on Taiwanese polling to support your point?

Biden's last statement is in clear breach of the existing China-US treaties and agreements, and it comes at a time where there is absolutely no proof of China preparing to attack Taiwan.

Since Taipei is governed by a multi-party system - they have elections and changing agendas all the time - presently the ruling party is eying with independence. (And the USA has been doing it's utmost to cause, aggravate and exploit this situation).
Everyone especially the Taiwanese population is aware that an attempt towards independence will not be tolerated by China - in the worst case it means war.
And independent of polling's towards independence (simply showing a present state of mood or conviction), going to war about it, is a totally different issue.

Maybe you want to show me your source that shows a majority of Taiwanese opting for war.

Just as a side info: I have been living almost 40 years in Asia and since 1998 in China with lot's of Taiwanese, Chinese and Japanese friends and acquaintances.

 

[Shinpachi]

Even Okinawa wants to be independent.
Point will be realistic or not.

Immediately before the meeting of Governor Tamaki of Okinawa Prefecture, "I'm Zelensky."

Immediately before the meeting of Governor Tamaki of Okinawa Prefecture, "I'm Zelensky."

[NHK] Governor Tamaki of Okinawa Prefecture said, "I'm Zelensky," just before the meeting of experts on the base issue began, and then "it was a careless remark."

www.tellerreport.com

 

[Dimlee]

Do you have a link to the article reporting this?

This leak, probably.

Alarming Footage, Leaked Audio Exposes China's 'Ground Strike Plan' To Attack & Gobble Taiwan - Watch

China has recently published alarming footage of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) landing operation drills, increasing speculations that President Xi Jinping is prepping his military to annex Taiwan. The ‘Big Battle’ Of Howitzers: Russia Says Its Giatsint-S Heavy Artillery Gun Is ‘Wiping...

eurasiantimes.com

Explosive audio leak details China’s plan to invade Taiwan - Indianarrative

<p> An unprecedented and explosive audio leak of a top-secret meeting of the People’s Liberation Army has revealed China’s detailed plan to attack Taiwan.</p> <p> Experts say that the audio clip posted on the YouTube channel of Lude media appears authentic. This will be the first time since the...

www.indianarrative.com

Can be intentional, as Shinpachi suggested.
"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak." (Sun Tzu).

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Maybe you want to show me your source that shows a majority of Taiwanese opting for war.

I didn't claim the majority of Taiwanese favored war. I said they favored independence, which renders your question here a straw-manning of my point. I feel no need to prove your misunderstood version of my point.

I wrote that they preferred independence.

Biden's last statement is in clear breach of the existing China-US treaties and agreements, and it comes at a time where there is absolutely no proof of China preparing to attack Taiwan.

Since Taipei is governed by a multi-party system - they have elections and changing agendas all the time - presently the ruling party is eying with independence. (And the USA has been doing it's utmost to cause, aggravate and exploit this situation).
Everyone especially the Taiwanese population is aware that an attempt towards independence will not be tolerated by China - in the worst case it means war.
And independent of polling's towards independence (simply showing a present state of mood or conviction), going to war about it, is a totally different issue.

Maybe you want to show me your source that shows a majority of Taiwanese opting for war.

I did ask you first, and generally blowing off questions is rude. It's not the first time you've done that with me, as well. But I'll play along just to call your hand:

The link you quoted above which shows that 60% of Taiwanese oppose closer political relations with Beijing, This obviously means that support for reunification is in the minority -- since reunification is clearly a matter of closer relations.

[ETA: There's also this report from the Taipei Times:

Most Taiwanese, or 72.5 percent, are willing to fight for the nation in the event that China uses force to achieve unification, a poll released yesterday by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy found.

However, asked whether they would fight against China if it attacked after Taiwan declared independence, the percentage of respondents who said they would fight fell to 62.7 percent, while 26.7 percent said they would not fight and 10.6 percent had no response, foundation president Huang Yu-lin (黃玉霖) told a news conference in Taipei hosted by the government-affiliated foundation.

The results suggest that the proportion of Taiwanese opposing unification is larger than those advocating Taiwanese independence, said Eric Yu (俞振華), a research fellow at National Chengchi University's (NCCU) Election Study Center.[/i]

Now, whatcha got?

 

[Jagdflieger]

.....However, asked whether they would fight against China if it attacked after Taiwan declared independence, the percentage of respondents who said they would fight fell to 62.7 percent, while 26.7 percent said they would not fight and 10.6 percent had no response, foundation president Huang Yu-lin (黃玉霖) told a news conference in Taipei hosted by the government-affiliated foundation.

The results suggest that the proportion of Taiwanese opposing unification is larger than those advocating Taiwanese independence, said Eric Yu (俞振華), a research fellow at National Chengchi University's (NCCU) Election Study Center.[/i]

What's your point?
I did say that the present Taipei government is in favor of independence, I also said that present polls reflect a present mood and conviction and due to Taiwan having a multi-party system, that has and is changing it's policies after every new government takeover-so does the peoples mood and conviction.
As for those media-polls I leave it up to you what weight you want to attribute towards them - especially in regards of willing to go to war.

My point is:

The USA has signed off onto the one country 2 systems policy - which is exactly the present case in regards to China and its province of Taiwan. So for the USA to instigate and actively promote/support separatism and additionally propagating anti-China sentiments in the world by spreading falsehood about China in general only demonstrates plain dishonesty and a warmongering attitude.

So tell me what serves the people on Taiwan better? - to keep the existing policy which provides/garuantees for their own independent governmental administration and democratic rights and livelihood, or to loose all this plus their own lives because of a war which the USA is trying it's best at to instigate?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

What's your point?

My point is that the Taiwanese public opinion is not in favor of reunification -- which is what you in fact asked me to support, so I did. Why did you ask me to support a point if you didn't know that point? Indeed, you misrepresented it at first.

My point is:

The USA has signed off onto the one country 2 systems policy - which is exactly the present case in regards to China and its province of Taiwan. So for the USA to instigate and actively promote/support separatism and additionally propagating anti-China sentiments in the world by spreading falsehood about China in general only demonstrates plain dishonesty and a warmongering attitude.

Is America actively supporting separatism?

As for "falsehoods about China", could you be specific? What lies is America spreading?

Link your sources.

So tell me what serves the people on Taiwan better? - to keep the existing policy which provides/garuantees for their own independent governmental administration and democratic rights and livelihood, or to loose all this plus their own lives because of a war which the USA is trying it's best at to instigate?

Again, I don't see America trying to instigate a war. Indeed, I see China building a force-structure specifically designed to attack Taiwan and at the same time deny any aid coming to the island. Whether we're talking about the artificial bases followed by sovereign-water claims, or A2/AD missiles, or the continual and escalating probes of Taiwan's airspace, it looks to me like China is at least as aggressive as you claim America is -- yet you're oddly silent about that.

As for what serves the Taiwanese better, I'll go with their own self-determination. If they prefer fighting and dying for their freedom, that's their decision to make.

I'm sure the Chinese will give them that, just as they did Hong Kong <snort>

 

[Jagdflieger]

My point is that the Taiwanese public opinion is not in favor of reunification -- which is what you in fact asked me to support, so I did. Why did you ask me to support a point if you didn't know that point? Indeed, you misrepresented it at first.

Yes we all know that is presently the case - so why do try to keep making a point out of it?

Is America actively supporting separatism?

Everytime the USA is sending a high ranking politician to Taiwan - it belongs to China, so no outsider politician has a right to even go there (not even to mention spreading support towards segregation) - other then invited by Beijing. Look at the USA or Australia's reaction towards the e.g. China's Confucius institutes in those countries.

As for "falsehoods about China", could you be specific? What lies is America spreading?

Link your sources.

You really that naive? or you just want to play games? for my part I am not interested in such games.

Again, I don't see America trying to instigate a war. Indeed,

That is because you don't want to see it. - e.g. the USA declaring military action and support towards a separatist movement in another country.
In other words - Taipei go for independence if China attacks you we will come in. That is not just inciting a war, that is actually asking for one.

I see China building a force-structure specifically designed to attack Taiwan and at the same time deny any aid coming to the island. Whether we're talking about the artificial bases followed by sovereign-water claims, or A2/AD missiles, or the continual and escalating probes of Taiwan's airspace, it looks to me like China is at least as aggressive as you claim America is -- yet you're oddly silent about that.

So the USA sending military aircraft and spy-planes into other countries airspace is different? China is not allowed to have an amphibious force to protect their outlying territories?
China's expansion into the South-China-Sea? - it is the result of colonial policies conducted by foreign powers in the last 400 years.

As for what serves the Taiwanese better, I'll go with their own self-determination. If they prefer fighting and dying for their freedom, that's their decision to make.

Silly statement - no one is willing to die for freedom other then a minority of fanatics and politician talking and inciting bullocks.
But I do understand your mindset - which would include that you will go with the Palestinian self-determination and fight against Israel and their prime supporter USA

I'm sure the Chinese will give them that, just as they did Hong Kong <snort>

You don't seem to understand the fundamental difference between HK (a former colony-obtained via open threat of force) being returned to China and Taiwan being an existing province of China with it's own elected democracy, administration and security forces.