US guarantees Taiwan security. Now what?
- Thread starter Admiral Beez
- Start date
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'Absolutely unacceptable': China warns Australia against involvement with Taiwan
China's embassy has taken aim at Australia, the United States and Japan, accusing them of "finger pointing" amid growing tensions with Taiwan.
www.abc.net.au
Thumpalumpacus
Major
'Absolutely unacceptable': China warns Australia against involvement with Taiwan
China's embassy has taken aim at Australia, the United States and Japan, accusing them of "finger pointing" amid growing tensions with Taiwan.
China is trying to split both Australia and Canada off from their shared duties patrolling the Western Pacific, is my understanding of events.
- Thread starter
- #44
Admiral Beez
Major
It really is time for us in the West to stop using China as our inflationary backstop via cheap consumer goods.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
I agree, feeding crocodiles is rarely a good idea.
- Thread starter
- #46
Admiral Beez
Major
An aggressive China is the one thing proponents of an expanded Pacific focus for the RCN need. I'd like to see Canada join AUKUS, but we'll need to show we're serious. A new SSK program would be a good start.
Another Canadian Submarine Program: Some Useful Lessons of History – Canadian Naval Review
Apollo, 6 August 2021 So, the RCN is going to put itself through the submarine acquisition wringer again. Unfortunately, there is a sad history of such programs over the last 70 years; most of which, if not all, follow the same tedious pattern from which many lessons can still be learned.
www.navalreview.ca
Would that become CAUKUS? Or, since Canada is a junior partner, USUKAC…. Do you now?
Thumpalumpacus
Major
As an American, I appreciate all good allies, and hope the situation in Ukraine and the recent interactions with the Chinese spur more involvement. The Chinese are naturally trying to whittle away any allies America, Taiwan, Japan, or South Korea have.
I believe they see Australia and Canada as junior partners (rightly or wrongly, I'm not falling on either side of the argument) and are trying to push them off first. Take out the smaller partner before attacking the big bull, you know? There's an advantage, in that approach, in both whittling opposing numbers, and also inflicting angst on an America that now sees less support if this approach succeeds.
I would love to see Canada join a CAUKAUS designed to aid and support Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Y'all could do great maritime patrol, I bet, given history, experience, and resource allocations. And that matters ... which is why China is trying to bully y'all.
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
Let's get raucous for CAUKAUS! AUKUS does sound like something a parrot would shriek.
'A storm is gathering': China announces fresh military drills around Taiwan
A Chinese state television commentator says its military will now conduct "regular" drills on the Taiwan side of the median line.
www.abc.net.au
After a humiliating week, Xi Jinping spruiks '10 breakthroughs' with Taiwan. All push the region closer to war
There's little sign from Beijing that it can woo the hearts and minds of Taiwan's 23 million people, if it is still intent on peacefully seizing control of them, writes Bill Birtles.
www.abc.net.au
Why Xi Jinping's China is unlikely to invade Taiwan — for now
China's economic and social problems have been growing in recent months, and Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan gave Beijing an opportunity to divert the public's attention, writes Bang Xiao.
www.abc.net.au
'No room for compromise': Chinese ambassador issues firm statement on future of Taiwan
The Chinese ambassador to Australia uses a National Press Club address to stand firm on Taiwan, saying there is no room for compromise, but he is hopeful about mending ties with Canberra.
www.abc.net.au
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
I'm concerned about these drills. Repetitive drills from all directions might eventually dull the edge of Taiwan's defenders and one day, it ain't a drill. If the attack is sudden, they might actually succeed in getting some forces ashore. Their navy got a crapload of anti-ship missile chuckers which could do grievous harm to Allied forces. I'm sure the Chinese forces are a bit more dedicated and trained than their Russian BFFs.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Something tells me that after the last six months the Taiwanese are not going to get complacent.
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
I hope so. I would have preferred a bunch of lengthy, well thought and cold hard factual reassuring posts would've been forthcoming, though.
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Thumpalumpacus
Major
I'll look up some links for you tomorrow between cutting up a chicken salad. I'm a little burnt tonight.
Just remember, a little salt-water goes a long ways.
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
I feel better already!
ThomasP
Senior Master Sergeant
Taiwan
Land Area_______________13,976 square miles
Population_______________23,906,450
Standing Armed Forces______165,000 total
____________________________ 88,000 Ground
Reserve/National Guard____1,655,000 (mostly Ground)
If Taiwan was willing to fight:
It would be pretty much impossible to invade Taiwan using amphibious forces without first destroying their Air Force (which China could do relatively easily) and Navy (also relatively easily) and eliminating most of their Ground Forces (which would be almost impossible without a very prolonged campaign similar to what Russia is doing in Ukraine - ie destroying the infrastructure and hoping to reduce the will to fight).
Taiwan has no oil production to speak of, and would be blockaded by China in the initial operations - so a war fought by Taiwan alone would be won or lost with what fuel supply Taiwan started with.
In effect, if Taiwan was willing to fight (alone) as prolonged a war as they had supply for, China would conquer an island about 33% bigger than Crimea with half of the island looking something like the destroyed cities in Ukraine.
Note the populated areas in this night time satellite image:
However, the US, Japan, and Australia, have all indicated that they would support Taiwan in event of war with China.
If China was willing to fight:
It is questionable whether the US/Japan/Australia Air and Naval Forces could prevent an effective blockade without destroying the majority of the Chinese Air and Naval Forces. The Chinese blue water Navy would be relatively easy to destroy, but the Coastal Forces would be a problem due to support from land-based Air (there is no part of Taiwan more than 250 miles from the Chinese coast). Destruction of the Chinese Air Forces would be problematic - it could be done but not without a full scale war between the US and China that involved the destruction of military targets at significant distances inshore.
However, as in Ukraine, it would be possible to create a situation where China faces a Pyrrhic victory.
Land Area_______________13,976 square miles
Population_______________23,906,450
Standing Armed Forces______165,000 total
____________________________ 88,000 Ground
Reserve/National Guard____1,655,000 (mostly Ground)
If Taiwan was willing to fight:
It would be pretty much impossible to invade Taiwan using amphibious forces without first destroying their Air Force (which China could do relatively easily) and Navy (also relatively easily) and eliminating most of their Ground Forces (which would be almost impossible without a very prolonged campaign similar to what Russia is doing in Ukraine - ie destroying the infrastructure and hoping to reduce the will to fight).
Taiwan has no oil production to speak of, and would be blockaded by China in the initial operations - so a war fought by Taiwan alone would be won or lost with what fuel supply Taiwan started with.
In effect, if Taiwan was willing to fight (alone) as prolonged a war as they had supply for, China would conquer an island about 33% bigger than Crimea with half of the island looking something like the destroyed cities in Ukraine.
Note the populated areas in this night time satellite image:
However, the US, Japan, and Australia, have all indicated that they would support Taiwan in event of war with China.
If China was willing to fight:
It is questionable whether the US/Japan/Australia Air and Naval Forces could prevent an effective blockade without destroying the majority of the Chinese Air and Naval Forces. The Chinese blue water Navy would be relatively easy to destroy, but the Coastal Forces would be a problem due to support from land-based Air (there is no part of Taiwan more than 250 miles from the Chinese coast). Destruction of the Chinese Air Forces would be problematic - it could be done but not without a full scale war between the US and China that involved the destruction of military targets at significant distances inshore.
However, as in Ukraine, it would be possible to create a situation where China faces a Pyrrhic victory.
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ThomasP
Senior Master Sergeant
I hope that China is just "shouting". I hope we are correct in our(?) belief.
