US guarantees Taiwan security. Now what?

[Shinpachi]

If Xi had been so serious about invading Taiwan as he warned Pelosi in advance, he would have occupied the small island of Quemoy as his first step toward re-unification of Taiwan but I understood that this was my thought influenced by the western war philosophy which relies on force. Xi has proved himself nobody but a typical Chinese who does not think re-unification of Taiwan by force.

 

[GTX]

It would be pretty much impossible to invade Taiwan using amphibious forces without first destroying their Air Force (which China could do relatively easily) and Navy (also relatively easily) and eliminating most of their Ground Forces (which would be almost impossible without a very prolonged campaign similar to what Russia is doing in Ukraine - ie destroying the infrastructure and hoping to reduce the will to fight).

Agreed. I expect that the Chinese strategy is:

1. Exert enough pressure both directly and indirectly to avoid the fight in the first place.
2. If Option 1 doesn't work, plan for blockade . This will not be a instant result but they should be able to contain the Taiwanese forces. It also will force the west to either put up or shut up - will the US and its allies try to break the blockade? If they do there will be potentially a bloody Air/Sea confrontation:
   1. If the US etc comes of the better for this then the Chinese are forced to backdown with possible consequences for Xi Jinping as the CCP turns on him;
   2. If the Chinese come off better and bloody the US etc badly then there is a new 'top dog' in the world and we will see a radical change. Most immediately Taiwan will find themselves isolated and either accept the new reality and welcome their new overlords or go down fighting. It would only be at this stage that a invasion of sorts would occur but the Taiwanese would have to know that they are on their own.

I fear (and I hope I'm wrong), that China has more options here:

1. If they win without a battle (option 1 above) they win overall
2. If they have a blockade and the US etc don't force the issue then they win - this also would have other repercussions as others question if the US etc will support them in the future as well
3. If they have the blockade and battle and win, they win again and we have a new top dog
4. If they have the blockade and battle and lose, then they lose and we will see what results.

So basically a 75% weighting in China's favour. now I know it is a bit more complex than this but this is just how I boil it down. If you want a more detailed analysis, may I suggest a read of the following:

It is questionable whether the US/Japan/Australia Air and Naval Forces could prevent an effective blockade without destroying the majority of the Chinese Air and Naval Forces. The Chinese blue water Navy would be relatively easy to destroy, but the Coastal Forces would be a problem due to support from land-based Air (there is no part of Taiwan more than 250 miles from the Chinese coast). Destruction of the Chinese Air Forces would be problematic - it could be done but not without a full scale war between the US and China that involved the destruction of military targets at significant distances inshore.

The above mentioned potential blockade breaking battle gets especially dicey even without factoring in nuclear weapons. The Chinese naval and air capability is building every day. Add to this mainland launched ballistic missiles and things won't be easy for the US and its allies. I'm not saying that things are a foregone conclusion but the 'maths' isn't one-sided by far.

The blockade is the key thing here and in some respects this is a replay of what the Imperial Japanese hoped for in WWII - a major naval confrontation that would decide things in one battle. Remember also that for Taiwan this isn't the same as the Ukraine - there is no land border allowing for resupply of new weapons/munitions. If Taiwan is isolated by blockade the only way to resupply is by forcing the issue.

 

[GTX]

Taiwan's capacity to confront China is not the same as Ukraine's with Russia

Strategic ambiguity has worked as a deterrence against Beijing's ambitions in Taiwan for 40 years because China was too weak to take Taiwan by force and lacked global economic clout. But all that has changed and a dangerous situation awaits, writes Mick Ryan.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Shinpachi]

This is my Taiwanese friend's recent opinion.
"The US is using Taiwan to take advantage in the ongoing US-China confrontation. This is OK but an issue for the Taiwanese people is that there is no intention and movement at the US side for the recognition of Taiwan as a state in the UN. Taiwan will be forgotten as ever again after the US-China shake hands."

 

[GTX]

This is my Taiwanese friend's recent opinion.
"The US is using Taiwan to take advantage in the ongoing US-China confrontation. This is OK but an issue for the Taiwanese people is that there is no intention and movement at the US side for the recognition of Taiwan as a state in the UN. Taiwan will be forgotten as ever again after the US-China shake hands."

Quite possibly though things are different now I believe. That said, not recognising Taiwan:

1. Allows the likes of the US and others to avoid a direct antagonism to China when they are perhaps not ready, and
2. Allows a 'back door' escape if the blockade/invasion were to occur and the US etc calculated the risks were too high.

Not nice things to contemplate but no-one ever said the world was fair.

 

[GTX]

Another thing to consider with the recent events with US political figures visiting Taiwan and the resulting Chinese war games: The US would have known the sort of reaction the Chinese would take. This then presents a good opportunity for data gathering on latest Chinese capabilities etc.

 

[Shinpachi]

As far as I have checked local news in Taiwan, people are tired of such a war game between US-China but more interested in a politician Lîm Tì-kian's suspicion of plagiarism scandal to accuse the Ts'ai administration. On the other hand, Japanese people are still interested in the Unification Church scandal ignited by Abe's disaster to accuse LDP. Chinese government warned their fishermen not to make trouble in Japanese EEZ near Senkaku. New SK president Yun is losing his popularity day by day as an amateur politician.

 

[GTX]

US to hold trade talks with Taiwan, potentially undermining China's role as biggest trade partner

The announcement came after Beijing held military drills that included firing missiles into the sea to intimidate Taiwan.

www.abc.net.au

 

[GTX]

Why the next five years will be 'very dangerous' for Xi Jinping

Only taking Taiwan will cement Xi's place as a remarkable person in China's history, while failure to do so could make him vulnerable to retaliation from his inner-party rivals, writes Bang Xiao.

www.abc.net.au

 

[GTX]

How China Could Choke Taiwan (Published 2022)

China is honing its ability to blockade Taiwan, giving Beijing the option of cutting off the self-ruled island in its campaign to take control of it.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Shinpachi]

Taiwanese guards intercept Chinese drone with stones in Quemoy this month.

Source: 中国軍ドローンが金門島に出現、台湾軍兵士の対応にネット民「絶望」―中国メディア ｜ レコードチャイナ

 

[Admiral Beez]

Why the next five years will be 'very dangerous' for Xi Jinping

Only taking Taiwan will cement Xi's place as a remarkable person in China's history, while failure to do so could make him vulnerable to retaliation from his inner-party rivals, writes Bang Xiao.

www.abc.net.au

Same as Galteiri needing to take the Falklands.

Funny how no where China considered wooing Taiwan back.

 

[SaparotRob]

I know, right? Everything went so well with Hong Kong.

 

[Shinpachi]

Mao's policy against Chiang in 1949 when Chiang escaped to Taiwan was "Do not pursue a beaten or desperate enemy (穷寇勿追 qióng kòu wù zhuī)." Xi has inherited this naturally because the Thirty-Six Stratagems of ancient China teaches "Do not pursue your enemies or they will bite you. Wait till they lose fighting spirits and they will obey you (欲擒故縦 yù qín gù zòng)."

 

[ThomasP]

Aside from the lack of saber-rattling/increased feeling of safety that might ensue, the only significant advantage that Taiwan would gain if they united with China is a reduction in their Military budget. The basic standard of living in Taiwan is considered good, with the only (I think) major exception being costs of buying/owning property (renting is still reasonable I have been told). The afore mentioned comments are somewhat relative, as Taiwan is a densely populated island, so keep it in mind that the comparison should be against the cost of living in densely populated areas in the US.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Aside from the lack of saber-rattling/increased felling of safety that moght ensue, the only significant advantage that Taiwan would gain if they united with China is a reduction in their Military budget. The basic standard of living in Taiwan is considered good, with the only (I think) major exception being costs of buying/owning property (renting is still reasonable I have been told). The afore mentioned comments are somewhat relative, as Taiwan is a densely populated island, so keep it in mind that the comparison should be against the cost of living in densely populated areas in the US.

I spent a week in Kaohsiung and a few days in Taiwan back in 2018. It was great to see Chinese people living with democracy and economic freedom.

 

[GTX]

Warning shots fired as China is accused of harassing Taiwan with drones

Taiwan fires warning shots at a Chinese drone buzzing an offshore islet after President Tsai Ing-wen orders Taiwan's military to take "strong countermeasures" against what she terms Chinese provocations.

www.abc.net.au

 

[GTX]

'Counterattack without exception': Taiwan ups rhetoric as more Chinese drones buzz islands

Taiwan says it will exercise its right to self-defence and counterattack if Chinese armed forces enter its territory, as Beijing increases military activities near the democratically governed island.

www.abc.net.au

 

[SaparotRob]

Taiwan has an order for 500 HIMARS, right? Bet they get the GOOOD missiles for them up front.

 

[Dimlee]

Mao's policy against Chiang in 1949 when Chiang escaped to Taiwan was "Do not pursue a beaten or desperate enemy (穷寇勿追 qióng kòu wù zhuī)." Xi has inherited this naturally because the Thirty-Six Stratagems of ancient China teaches "Do not pursue your enemies or they will bite you. Wait till they lose fighting spirits and they will obey you (欲擒故縦 yù qín gù zòng)."

A good reminder, thanks. I always wondered about the long-term intentions of the PRC in the first two Strait crises in the 1950s. Did Beijing plan to go further - beyond the group of small islands...