What does Japan do if War against USA/UK/DEI postponed to Spring 1942? (1 Viewer)

[Admiral Beez]

OK, why would the Japanese wait? They're running out of oil and they don't have compromise built into their mindset.

They're waiting three and a half months. It's not a huge span of time. Maybe Japan is waiting to complete the two rapidly-building Junyo class carriers. But I might not be able to give you a reason you'll be satisfied with - I'm okay with that.

 

[Mad Dog]

They're waiting three and a half months. It's not a huge span of time. Maybe Japan is waiting to complete the two rapidly-building Junyo class carriers.....

True, but I don't think the Japanese thought they needed those two carriers to succeed. They had a large enough strikeforce to pull off the attack on Pearl Harbor and were simply unlucky that the USN carriers were at sea. Had the USN's carriers been tied up alongside at Battleship Row then it would have left the Japanese with a crushing superiority in the PTO.

.....But I might not be able to give you a reason you'll be satisfied with - I'm okay with that.

On the contrary, your offerings seem well though out and considerate, sir.

 

[Admiral Beez]

True, but I don't think the Japanese thought they needed those two carriers to succeed. They had a large enough strikeforce to pull off the attack on Pearl Harbor and were simply unlucky that the USN carriers were at sea. Had the USN's carriers been tied up alongside at Battleship Row then it would have left the Japanese with a crushing superiority in the PTO.

If in April 1942 the USA is at war in Europe (which I suggest will be so by Jan-Feb 42) those in Japan who still want war may see an opportunity with the PTO empty of heavy USN (and RN) ships.

 

[The Basket]

The question would be does Japan see itself at war with USA? If the answers yes then a pre emptive strike is a sound idea.
Japan cannot bypass Philippines as it's right on the supply line. So you go south and the Philippines gets invaded.

So a negotiated withdrawal to say 1931 borders or a pretend withdrawal.

Japan pretends to withdraw and America pretends Japan withdraw. Oil and scrap metal flow again. Japan is out the war and keeps Korea and Manchuria. Pretty fair deal.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Japan is out the war and keeps Korea and Manchuria. Pretty fair deal.

And we in the west can likely miss the Korean War and Vietnam War. I wonder if India will remain in British hands into the 1950s.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

So a negotiated withdrawal to say 1931 borders or a pretend withdrawal.

Japan pretends to withdraw and America pretends Japan withdraw. Oil and scrap metal flow again. Japan is out the war and keeps Korea and Manchuria. Pretty fair deal.

And the empire-hungry, conquest-driven, exploitation-intent military government stays in power, with dreams of world domination intact, to keep WWIII looming on the horizon?
Pretty fair deal - NOT!
Appeasement didn't work in 1938, what makes you think 1941-42 would be any better?

 

[XBe02Drvr]

And we in the west can likely miss the Korean War and Vietnam War.

And replace them with WWIII in Asia through most of the 1950s.

 

[The Basket]

Korea and Manchukuo are puppet states of Japan anyway. So limiting Japan to these borders might be best case scenario.

America didn't bleed for China before and I seriously doubt they gonna bleed for China in 1941.

I seriously doubt America or British Empire will go to war against Japan unless attacked. This gives Japan breathing space and negotiation value.

If Japan knows it's gonna get smacked down if it gets in a shooting war then it's not appeasement, it's a deterrent.

Maybe a bit of phased withdrawal to show willing.

Maybe Japan will leave China if America leaves Philippines.

Of course it's not fair. But it probably fairer than most other scenarios.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

Maybe Japan will leave China

...only at gunpoint.

if America leaves Philippines.

Dream on!

 

[Conslaw]

Agreed, but conversely every month's wait demonstrates to the Japanese both that the Germans have fatally overstepped and that the US industrial might is matched with a willingness to fight.

I agree, andI think maybe the Japanese militarists even understood this, and they didn't want the opportunity for war to slip through their fingers.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

I agree, andI think maybe the Japanese militarists even understood this, and they didn't want the opportunity for war to slip through their fingers.

A victory for diplomacy as a policy over war weakens the IJA's dominant position in the government.

 

[Conslaw]

I am intrigued by the idea of the Japan out of China - US out of Philippines deal, with both sides likely to drag their heels. If there had been no WWII, how long do you think before Philippine independence?

 

[XBe02Drvr]

I am intrigued by the idea of the Japan out of China - US out of Philippines deal, with both sides likely to drag their heels. If there had been no WWII, how long do you think before Philippine independence?

As long as we sense threat from Japan (they maintain their "empire mania") we hang on to the Philippines.

 

[Conslaw]

OK, why would the Japanese wait? They're running out of oil and they don't have compromise built into their mindset. The only way I could see this playing out was if the Japanese secured oil supplies from Soviet Russia in a kind of Eastern Molotov Agreement. It is valuable to the Soviets as it ensures they can bring troops from Manchuria to fight the invading Germans, and also because any Japanese threat is mainly to the USSR's long-term ideological enemies, the colonial powers and the USA. With oil supplies secured by Soviet Russia, the Japanese could continue their conquest of China, which would take a good few years, then review the status of the West. If the Allies have finished Germany by then, Japan can agree a peace with China under her thumb. Would a war-weary Britain want to go to war with Japan over China? Unlikely. And if Roosevelt has died, would Truman pursue the same policy against China given the Allies now face a Soviet occupation of half of Europe which Roosevelt had unintentionally made happen?

"Why would the Japanese wait?" Of course, in real life, they didn't, because they didn't think any reason to wait was compelling, but using the 20-20 vision of history, we know now they weren't really ready for war. They didn't have the industrial base in position to even have a reasonable shot at beating the United States. They were woefully short of aircraft. Six months after the war began, there were not even enough A6Ms available to fully outfit the little Shoho. If they would have taken stock of the areas in which they were deficient, and projected things out to a war where everything might not go right, they would have plenty of reasons to delay war.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

If they would have taken stock of the areas in which they were deficient, and projected things out to a war where everything might not go right, they would have plenty of reasons to delay war.

The "Empire Mania" experience comes fully equipped, complete with blinders and ample Samurai Spirits! Step right up! Get your tickets here! Banzai!
If the IJN were in charge rather than IJA, a more sober-sided approach MIGHT have prevailed. The trouble is, such an extreme atmosphere had been whipped up that sober-sidedness could easily become a fatal disease.

 

[The Basket]

You see things from Japanese perspective.

America in the Philippines is a direct threat to Japan. Part of the Japanese schtick is western colonialism and how they enslaved Asia. So British Empire is not in Singapore for giggles.

If American is not willing to leave Philippines then Japan isn't going to leave Korea. Typical western double standards of occupation good when they do it and bad when Japan does it.

The oil and scrap iron embargo is gun point. Modern warfare is all about oil and steel and so restrictions are going to cause the Japanese war machine to cease.

So you throw a bone you do a deal. You allow the Japanese to save face.

You broker deals and don't allow it to get to war. If the Japanese avoid Pearl Harbour and America goes to war over Korea then that's going to be a hard sell. Revenge is a far easier concept than some country on the other side of the Pacific. Japan is not a direct threat to the American mainland.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I agree, andI think maybe the Japanese militarists even understood this, and they didn't want the opportunity for war to slip through their fingers.

I agree, and the Japanese militarists, especially the otherwise idle IJN will be itching to use their shiny new carriers and fleet somewhere.

Thus, without waiting for an invite, on April 1st 1942 Admiral Yamamoto and the carriers Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, Hiryu, Shokaku and Zuikaku, along with the battleships Yamato, Nagato and Mutsu, six heavy cruisers, two dozen destroyers and eight Kawasaki-type oilers sail from Tokyo Bay, arriving off Ceylon on April 21st. A few days before their arrival, the Japanese ambassador in London requests to see Churchill and the British foreign minister (both of whom are wondering wtf these reports from Singapore of a massive fleet sailing past are about?!), where Japan's ambassador says "we wish to once again fight alongside our British friends against the Germans, and to this end our fleet is approaching Ceylon to join your efforts, and with your permission will continue to Suez."

 

[XBe02Drvr]

America in the Philippines is a direct threat to Japan.

America in the Philippines is a necessary throttle on Japan.

Part of the Japanese schtick is western colonialism and how they enslaved Asia.

And this is to be replaced with even more brutal Japanese colonialism? Their value system had no provision for "liberated" peoples, only "conquered", hence contemptible, peoples.

So you throw a bone you do a deal. You allow the Japanese to save face.

And you leave the war machine, the "empire mania", and the frenzied political atmosphere intact, at the cost of future conflict with an even more powerful Japan? I don't think so.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

"we wish to once again fight alongside our British friends against the Germans, and to this end our fleet is approaching Ceylon to join your efforts, and with your permission will continue to Suez."

"We will, of course, require provisioning and oiling from HM's supplies, as ours are cut off, and since our carrier operations are so much more advanced, we will require operational control of HM's aircraft carrier task forces and their integration into our fleet. We presume that is acceptable, no?"
LONDON, AP: CHURCHILL DIES OF APOPLEXY!

 

[Admiral Beez]

And replace them with WWIII in Asia through most of the 1950s.

As long as it's not nuclear or involves the west, let them fight it out.