What does Japan do if War against USA/UK/DEI postponed to Spring 1942?

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A confidential report "Oil" issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan in March, 1939 concludes Japan's future energy policy like this.


Chapter 17 Conclusion

As known according to the above, the oil industry has very unique points. First, the oil producing areas are extremely biased. Coal and the like are distributed all over the world but, on the contrary, oil is not produced at all in regions where it is not concentrated and produced locally in the world. Secondly, since petroleum is a liquid, it is more profitable to combine large areas into one without dividing one oil field. Third, the oil produced in the oil wells is cultivated from the nature, so the rise and fall is fierce. Mexico had an annual production of 15,300,000 tons around 1925, which was the second largest in the world, but today it is one-third of that time and has fallen to the seventh largest in the world. Fourth, because petroleum is a liquid, it requires a huge amount of money to store and transport. Due to these four properties, the oil business inevitably tends to be concentrated under large capital. However, because oil is military essential, it will eventually come under the state control.

Naturally, countries that have no choice but to import oil from abroad are in a very dangerous position. Overseas dependence of oil, especially for Japan, will result in overseas payments of hundreds of millions of yen in peacetime and, depending on the will of the world's largest oil producers, supply to Japan may be interrupted and this will be a fatal weakness in the war. Needless to say, it is necessary to give deep consideration to the future oil policy on this point.

As already mentioned, the oils that Japan has traditionally imported are mainly California oil from North America and the Dutch and British East Indies. It is impossible to import Soviet oil for a long time in the future because the former Soviet-Japanese oil import business was only the result of temporary dumping by Soviet's national policy. Also, Mexican and Venezuelan oils are not realistic even if they could supply enough capacity because of the high rate of tolls on the Panama Canal and long-distance freight. The possibility of oil imports from Iraq and Arabic region is not realistic yet. Therefore, our future choice for supply will still be North American California oil and East Indian oil. But how this makes import difficult during the war is as discussed in the previous chapter. Then, what kind of measures should Japan take?

Of course, we must think that there is nothing that can be considered in response to this other than the policies that Japan is actually taking and that each country is taking. In other words, they are none others than these

1. Development of domestic oil fields
2. Development of artificial oil industry from coal
3. Positive use of coal and diluted gasoline with alcohol

The two countries of Britain and France depend on foreign oil, which is completely different from ours. These two countries own oil sources within their territory or within their interests and have a powerful navy. Even if a war may break out, they are ready to respond. The situation is completely different from the fact that our oil source relies on Britain and the United States. Even if our navy is as reliable as the British and French fleets, their difficulty to protect imports from within their own interests is different from our difficulty to protect imports from oil sources under the siege of the enemy. It is easy to guess how big the difference is.

France relies on the oil storage policy and stores oil in peacetime. Japan's oil industry law imitates this but in reality each oil company is suffering that there is a limit to oil storage and the cost is enormous. Heavy oil is cheap in price and can withstand storage, so it is better to take possession and rely on storage policy but, in the case of volatile oil for airplanes and automobiles, it is difficult to withstand long-term storage.

Of course, the use of alcohol and coal as an auxiliary means is merely an auxiliary means, so it is unlikely that it will be useful for the fundamental solution of the oil problem.

After all, the Autarkie must be the only oil policy left behind by the development of less dense oil fields and the promotion of the development of the artificial oil industry. As discussed in Chapter 12 Section 8 Japan, there are not a few promising oil-impregnated areas in Japan.

On October 14, 1937, the Fuel National Policy Study Group proposed emergency measures about the domestic oil resource development and the government is going to invest 300 million yen to increase 1.6 million tons of oil production in five years as a five-year continuous project. This is just right as fortunately coal is not scarce in our country. Also, if we develop the undeveloped coal fields in Manchuria, Sakhalin and North China for the artificial oil production, self-sufficiency will not necessarily be impossible. The Planning Institute's production capacity expansion plan for the coming 1941 will also be aimed at reaching that point ultimately.

The above mentioned is limited to the problem domestically (or through Japan, Manchuria and China) but it will be necessary to consider Japan's southward policy too. Of course, the construction of the East Asian New Order is a great project but, in order to achieve that big project, there must be enough materials to meet its spirit. Manchuria, North and Central China could often produce them. Albeit scarce in petroleum resources, rich coal will facilitate the production of artificial oil. Moreover, the colony must be to the south. Mankind can follow the culture in the temperate zone and the material basis for this culture is in the tropics. A nation that does not control the tropics lacks all its resources. Therefore, Japan should turn its eyes to the south for the completion of the East Asian Community. Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the Dutch East Indies and Borneo should be occupied by force. Moreover, as suppliers of oil, rubber and other tropical resources, we should not forget that these regions are also part of Asia.


Source: 石油 - NDL Digital Collections
 
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There was this goddess of the sun called Amatarasu. She had a grandson called Ninigi. His great grandson was called Jimmu and he was Japan's first emperor.

Hirohito was directly descended from Jimmu 124 emperors ago which means he was descended from the Sun Goddess which made him divine.

From Jimmu we get the concept of Hakko Ichiu or its in his name anyway.

Hakko Ichiu is the concept of Japanese conquest of the planet by covering the 8 corners of the world under a Japanese roof.

The Tanaka Memorial is a document which is now believed to be a forgery. Though at the time it was believed real. Forgery or no it did seem to be true setting out the strategic goal.

We then go to the Ear Mound in Kyoto. This dated from 1597 to the invasion of Korea and is a monument of hacked off body parts of Korean people.

This was the invasion led by Toyotomi Hideyoshi in the 1590s and his goal was a bit brutal.

"Mow down everyone universally, without discriminating between young and old, men and women, clergy and the laity—high ranking soldiers on the battlefield, that goes without saying, but also the hill folk, down to the poorest and meanest—and send the heads to Japan."
 
Seems to me the Japanese had a lot of smoke blown up the rectum and the Kool-Aid coming out of every orifice.

There are few things more dangerous than inbred religious certainty.

Goering was supposed to have said that they were all yes men because the no men were 6 feet under.
 
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Seems to me the Japanese had a lot of smoke blown up the rectum and the Kool-Aid coming out of every orifice.
The Russians did the Japanese no favours by rolling over in 1904-5, nor the Germans at Tsingtao in 1914. Hand the Japanese a strong defeat in 1904-5 and they may be a little more cautious when planning their expansions 35 years later.
 
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If Japan pulls out of China it is likely that a resurgent China goes on the offensive against Japan and the West in the mid-late 1940s or early 1950s? If Mao can expedite his revolution we may see Stalin coming to his aid once the Germans are now more quickly defeated by the USSR and the now ETO focused Wallies. If instead a now domestically focused Chiang Kai-shek defeats Mao's communists would the Chinese nationalists then turn on Japan to recover Manchuria and Taiwan and seize Korea? I wonder if we'd see something like a larger Boxer Rebellion, with British, French, Dutch and Americans joining forces with Japan against an aggressor China?

My understanding is that Japan invaded China in part to keep them down, in fear that with its size China would one day pose a major threat to Japan. Perhaps that day will come before 2050.
 
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Had Japan been absolutely beat in the Russo Japanese war then I doubt the Militarists would have come out on top over the civilian government.

Or maybe the army would have blamed everyone else and said we need to go harder.

Who knows. The Russo Japanese war was very hard on the Japanese and it was pretty much done for afterwards. So they never learned anything from that.

Invading China was always about imperial ambitiousness. To invade China as a pre emptive strike not really. In all the things I have read, China was never the main enemy of Japan. Or the main fear.

Would the Japanese have the oil to go to was in Spring 42?
 
re: post #108
I don't think Generalissimo Chiang Kai-Shek would be that eager to take on Japan. Regaining lost territory would be second after eliminating Mao. China was getting pretty trashed and may have needed time to recover a bit. Since the more recent conquests he would be getting back from the "Okay, Let's All Be Rational, No One Wants War () Treaty".
I don't see any nation taking China as a threat for any time soon. The factories and shipyards were certainly not up to Japanese or western standards. What infrastructure?
 
Had Japan been absolutely beat in the Russo Japanese war then I doubt the Militarists would have come out on top over the civilian government.
Tsar Nicolas was certainly a disaster for 20th century global security and stability. Provoking Japan in 1904, emboldening the Serbians to attack the Austro-Hungarians during the 1908-14 Bosnian Crisis, entering a stupid alliance with France and declaring war on Germany. A smarter Tsar would have traded Port Arthur to Japan in return for a trade deal with Tokyo, built around a new Russia-Japan transcontinental railway, combined with the Russian navy leasing the port from Japan, thus reducing Britain's diplomatic ties with Japan and their 1902 Alliance. Do that (and smack the Serbs into submission) and we have no Russian revolutions in 1905 and 1917, a reduced European war, and no Japan terrorizing all of SEA from 1937-45.

But that's the turns of history for you. Have GHWB firmly and clearly tell Saddam not to invade Kuwait in 1991 and much of where we are now today (GW1, GW2, 9/11, WOT, Afghan/Iraq occupation, Arab Spring, Syrian collapse, refugee crisis, etc.) would be different.
 
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Nicholas wouldn't have leased, rented, sold, or gave up anything to the Japanese or -- more morally (Russia didn't own Port Arthur any more than China owned Omsk) -- back to China. As an aside, Port Arthur (Lüshun) wasn't returned to China until 1950, and Soviet troops remained there until 1955.

Nicky had many areas of incompetence, not excluding military management, domestic policy, and international affairs. He did seem, however, to be a decent parent. Just not a decent ruler.
 
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Beat me to it. By waiting, Japan not only watches Germany flounder in Russia, but also starts counting US units heading to Europe.
Another aspect the Japanese planners get to see is whether "the sleeping giant" and it's mighty industrial capacity awaken to the point that it is the game changer it became when a two front war was on the table. Yes, most likely, it could become the world changer and superpower creator later in history but how influential is it when the enemy is only Germany/Italy?
I believe Japan's decision to wage war against America depends largely on industry's response to the European, Mediterranean, and African war. If tank and aircraft factories aren't popping up everywhere and civilians aren't mobilizing into Rosie the Riveter and Frankie the Fabricator () then Japan's own moderate industrial capacity doesn't appear so inadequate as it otherwise did.
Couple that with American troop movements, specifically the Marines. How many Marines would head out to land in Africa, Sicily, and Normandy?
So, does Japan attack Pearl Harbor with a little more knowledge of the American industrial supply and an even weaker American military presence in the Pacific? I say yes, not just for the reasons listed, but also due to the war mongering so-called "Spirit Warriors" that has been chomping at the bit to play samurai for a decade. It was they who played a large role in the corruption of Bushido as a way to gain power and influence politics. It was they who wasted entire garrisons of men with uncoordinated suicidal charges. It was these maniacs who practiced ritualistic cannibalism on American pilots at Chichi Jim's. It was they who attempted a coup when peace was imminent. They were not going to pass up an opportunity to prove the superiority of the Japanese fighting spirit.
 
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