Thumpalumpacus
Major
No nation or group of nations should change its foreign policy to appease a bully. I'd thought this lesson got learned 80 years ago ....
"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."
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No nation or group of nations should change its foreign policy to appease a bully. I'd thought this lesson got learned 80 years ago ....
special ed
1st Sergeant
- 5,039
- May 13, 2018
I saw an interesting evaluation by a retired official or officer who pointed out in 1863 Russia took Manchuria and surrounding areas from China. Now that Putin has become indebted to XII (I call him eleven) China may want that territory back. With the Russian military weakened and now short of equipment, with Russia's low GDP rebuilding the military may take a long time.
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
I agree with you, T-cus. Were only it were so. I guess it didn't stay learned.
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
Tsar to vassal. I'm liking it.
Admiral Beez
Captain
What Ukraine needs is another nation, clearly one not in NATO to actively join the fight in Ukraine. Moldova is an obvious contender since they'll be next if Ukraine falls. It's a damn shame Belarus has chosen the wrong side as they could have stood with Ukraine - together Russia wouldn't, apparently, stand a chance.
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Thumpalumpacus
Major
Regarding China picking up the slack for Russian sales of petroleum products:
1) The Russians would have to finish their pipeline to China first, no?
2) Finding a shipping line that wouldn't be worried about sanctions, and be willing to pay the higher insurance rates such business would incur, might be tough sledding.
I suspect the Chinese will continue their Middle East purchasing and let the Russians sort out the transshipment details.
1) The Russians would have to finish their pipeline to China first, no?
2) Finding a shipping line that wouldn't be worried about sanctions, and be willing to pay the higher insurance rates such business would incur, might be tough sledding.
I suspect the Chinese will continue their Middle East purchasing and let the Russians sort out the transshipment details.
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
Excellent!
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
Moldova is a former territory of Romania, but they are and want to remain, neutral.
As I mentioned the other day, Moldova (who still has a large ethnic Romanian population) was in talks with Romania about reunification even last year.
So if Putin tries to take Moldova under the auspices if it being "ethnic Russian" or whatever, he'll have to answer to Romania, who has a vested interest in Moldova and has stated clearly that they will defend them.
The Basket
Senior Master Sergeant
- 3,712
- Jun 27, 2007
The EU have no army and defence is on a state by state basis.
The Polish Fulcrums news has more twists than Chubby Checker so who knows about that.
Russian Oil seems to be off the western menu so another nail in the economic coffin.
If we agree that Ukraine can't be a member of NATO or EU then if the Russian retreats then I'm ok with it.
Don't mean you can't pretend that anyhoo.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Regarding American imports of Russian oil, it's about 600k bbl in the last year (12,600 bbl/month, so about 607k bbl per annum), not per day, as posted above. Source: U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports
It's my understanding that this oil is imported for refinement and re-export, rather than American use. I'm not sure how that affects Russian finances, but it would seem to hurt countries downstream if my understanding about re-export is correct.
It's my understanding that this oil is imported for refinement and re-export, rather than American use. I'm not sure how that affects Russian finances, but it would seem to hurt countries downstream if my understanding about re-export is correct.
Admiral Beez
Captain
Ukraine wanted to remain neutral as well.
Romania, as a member of NATO cannot provoke a war with Russia as a means to protect Moldova.
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Greg Boeser
1st Sergeant
Ah, you've played Diplomacy, too.
No, it is literally just an economic zone.
Crimea_River
Marshal
You sure? April 2020 (mid Covid) numbers had imports from Russia at 408k barrels per day.
Edited. Left off the "k"
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Thumpalumpacus
Major
My quoted numbers run from Nov 20 - Dec 21, based on US EIA numbers.
Edited to correct my misreading.
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Crimea_River
Marshal
The April 2020 number quotes the 2019 average barrels per day and it is indeed 408000. 12600 per month sounds wrong for a country that imports 7million bpd.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Edited as above.
I don't understand why the same agency would report such wildly varying figures. 408,000 bbls/day equals about 149 million barrels per year, or about 12+ million bbls/mo.
ETA: The only reason I can think for the discrepancy would be the difference between domestic American use and refining for reshipment.
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Crimea_River
Marshal
That's why I was questioning it and wonder if your quoted 12600 barrels per month should be in thousands.
Bottom line is that Russian imports to the US amounted to about 5% so banning imports is manageable. That's why Canada banned them last week. Imports are negligible. Unfortunately the EU is not in the same position.
