"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Wouldn't that put a feather in Putin's cap? One of his demands before invading, and one that he continues to make, is that Ukraine must never be allowed to join NATO. The west has so far been very careful to not rule out Ukraine joining so why would agree now?

I don't think it will happen. NATO does not want to provoke a war either. I think Ukraine will end up on its own, and will become the new front line of the new Cold War. I hate to say it, and I feel bad for Ukraine, but I see it playing out this way. Like I said in an earlier post, Ukraine is being thrown under the bus in a way.

 

[GrauGeist]

Just last week, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia applied for EU membership under a "fast track" appeal.

 

[Crimea_River]

You may be right on the outcome Chris. I just can't see the west ever telling Putin that they'll never be allowed to join.

 

[SaparotRob]

Wouldn't that put a feather in Putin's cap? One of his demands before invading, and one that he continues to make, is that Ukraine must never be allowed to join NATO. The west has so far been very careful to not rule out Ukraine joining so why would agree now?

I disagree. Ukraine (and Finland, and the other sovereign states that border the former Soviet Union) were always out of NATO as part of a sort of "gentlemen's agreement". They were out precisely to prevent the CCCP from getting nervous. They understood it. NATO understood it. The Russians understood it. Putin changed the story and now it's NATO and the XIII Waffen Ukranian Armee are unleashing Satan (or something). Ukraine was never going to be allowed into NATO. Perhaps it's more worry by Putin over Ukraine joining the EU. My guess is that any NATO discussion of Ukrainian entry is part of the negotiating process. This we can "give up" for Putin's face saving but it will never happen unless there are a bunch of stuff I can't forsee happening

I had stopped following the news pretty much two elections ago. It wasn't "The News" so much as people screaming at each other. I understand that possibly there was discussion about certain states joining NATO way before the troops started massing. I'm sure you'll agree this is not my area of expertise.

 

[Crimea_River]

Latvia and Estonia directly border Russia and so does the north tip of Norway, all NATO countries so I don't know where your "gentlemen's agreement" comes in. It would be a mistake for the west to say NOW to the bare-chested blubberhead that Ukraine will never join. He gets what he wants that way and can tell all of his people and his cronies that the invasion, er, sorry, "special military operation", was worth it.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Just remember this...

NATO membership is potentially open to all of Europe's emerging democracies that share the alliance's values and are ready to meet the obligations of membership.

There is no checklist for membership.

We have made clear that, at a minimum, candidates for membership must meet the following five requirements:

--New members must uphold democracy, including tolerating diversity.

--New members must be making progress toward a market economy.

--Their military forces must be under firm civilian control.

--They must be good neighbors and respect sovereignty outside their borders.

--They must be working toward compatibility with NATO forces.

Again, while these criteria are essential, they do not constitute a checklist leading automatically to NATO membership.

New members must be invited by a consensus of current members.

Decisions to invite new members must take into account the required ratification process in the member states. In the case of the United States, decisions are made in consultation with Congress.

The key determinant for any invitation to new members is whether their admission to NATO will strengthen the alliance and further the basic objective of NATO enlargement, which is to increase security and stability across Europe.

 

[GrauGeist]

Ukraine (and Finland, and the other sovereign states that border the former Soviet Union) were always out of NATO as part of a sort of "gentlemen's agreement". They were out precisely to prevent the CCCP from getting nervous.

Finland wasn't interested in joining NATO until recently.
During the days of the Soviet Union, European nations with a border against Warsaw Pact nations were part of NATO and after the Soviet Union collapsed, those former Warsaw pact nations joined NATO.

The Ukraine had been working with NATO since it goined independence from Communist rule in the 90's.

Putin's crying about NATO being a threat is just an excuse.

Here is a history of Ukraine's relationship with NATO:

Relations with Ukraine

The security of Ukraine is of great importance to NATO and its member states. The Alliance fully supports Ukraine’s inherent right to self-defence, and its right to choose its own security arrangements. Ukraine’s future is in NATO. Relations between NATO and Ukraine date back to the early 1990s...

www.nato.int

 

[SaparotRob]

I have been out of touch. I didn't know Latvia and Estonia were part of NATO. I was going from anecdotal sources for my "agreement".

 

[GrauGeist]

I have been out of touch. I didn't know Latvia and Estonia were part of NATO. I was going from anecdotal sources for my "agreement".

During the days of the Soviet Union, Turkey had two borders with the Soviet Union: Bulgaria and the Georgian region and Turkey has been a NATO member since the early 50's.
Every time a Soviet ship transited the Bosphorus, it was completely surrounded by NATO territory.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

You may be right on the outcome Chris. I just can't see the west ever telling Putin that they'll never be allowed to join.

I agree on that, but what they say and what they do are two different things.

 

[buffnut453]

Latvia and Estonia directly border Russia and so does the north tip of Norway, all NATO countries so I don't know where your "gentlemen's agreement" comes in. It would be a mistake for the west to say NOW to the bare-chested blubberhead that Ukraine will never join. He gets what he wants that way and can tell all of his people and his cronies that the invasion, er, sorry, "special military operation", was worth it.

Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia also have borders with Russia...and they're all NATO members. I think the issue is more about Putin not wanting to further expand his NATO frontage...plus he wants buffer states like Belarus and, he hopes, Ukraine that would become battlegrounds in any engagement with NATO, hence saving Mother Russia from the fighting. It's a very odd, twisted logic but it's all about power and protecting Russia.

Sadly, Belarus in particular hasn't cottoned onto the idea that Putin only wants them as a battleground so he can protect Russia proper. One of our forum mates has a signature block that says "Just because you please your enemy does not make him your friend." That's SOOOOO true when it comes to Putin. Even if he treats you as a friend, you must keep in mind he is the most self-serving of allies.

 

[tomo pauk]

Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia also have borders with Russia...and they're all NATO members. I think the issue is more about Putin not wanting to further expand his NATO frontage...plus he wants buffer states like Belarus and, he hopes, Ukraine that would become battlegrounds in any engagement with NATO, hence saving Mother Russia from the fighting. It's a very odd, twisted logic but it's all about power and protecting Russia.

These 3 countries border with Ukraine, not with Russia.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

The key determinant for any invitation to new members is whether their admission to NATO will strengthen the alliance and further the basic objective of NATO enlargement, which is to increase security and stability across Europe.

And unfortunately, whether we like it or not, Ukraine joining NATO would likely do the opposite.

Me personally? I would welcome them with open arms. I would personally love a soldier of Ukrainian caliber sharing a fox hole with me. But in the grand scheme of things its probably not the best idea.

 

[buffnut453]

These 3 countries border with Ukraine, not with Russia.

Yeah...you're right. Getting ahead of myself. DOH!!!!

 

[buffnut453]

Seems like there's a kerfuffle between Washington and Warsaw over the gifting of Polish MiG-29s to Ukraine. Poland has offered them to the US but the US doesn't want to own the problem and is saying it's for Poland to decide what to do with the jets. The fear is that having combat aircraft flying from a NATO nation into Ukraine will be seen as provocative.

Seems to me we should learn some lessons from the Neutrality Act prior to US entry into WW2 and drag the aircraft over the border before flying them to Ukrainian military airfields.

It seems to me there should be some stretch of suitably long and straight tarmac that would be good enough for the job...maybe? Then again, as demonstrated in my previous post, geography isn't my strong suit!

 

[SaparotRob]

During the days of the Soviet Union, Turkey had two borders with the Soviet Union: Bulgaria and the Georgian region and Turkey has been a NATO member since the early 50's.
Every time a Soviet ship transited the Bosphorus, it was completely surrounded by NATO territory.

I did know that Turkey was a member. I remember a lot of noise about it. I chalked that up to "noise". Latvia and Estonia, caught me by surprise. I thought they would always be the "border hostage" states. Part of a demilitarized zone between the Godless communists and capitalist tools of Wall Street.

 

[vikingBerserker]

I think with the natural gas deposites the Ukraine posses, I could see them being admited to the EU and then later into NATO especially with Adolph Putin threatening to cut off Germany's supply.

 

[SaparotRob]

China now seems to have its petroleum issues solved for a while. Cheap.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Afghanistan was like 90% high grounds (hills, mountains). Carpatian mountains account for how much, 5%+- of Ukraine? If Putin holds the plains, Carpatians don't matter.

The Pripet marshes in the north of Ukraine are also ideal insurgent cover, I'd think.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Just last week, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia applied for EU membership under a "fast track" appeal.

Does the EU have a mutual-defense clause along the lines of the NATO pact?