Coronavirus Thread (2 Viewers)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:

Glad your numbers are coming down.

I suspect the US numbers will start to go up even more.

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I hope the Italy numbers continue to go down also after the relaxing of lock down, the next week we will see the result

I also hope the in US will go fine, i've many relatives there, one aunt, 2 first cousins, 2 first cousins once removed, and many 2nd cousins and their off springs

pbehn said:

London will never be the same. Without a transport system, bars, theatres, cinemas and restaurants what is it?

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San Francisco?

Vincenzo said:

I hope the Italy numbers continue to go down also after the relaxing of lock down, the next week we will see the result

I also hope the in US will go fine, i've many relatives there, one aunt, 2 first cousins, 2 first cousins once removed, and many 2nd cousins and their off springs

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At least you guys waited until you got it under control. The dumpster fire in the US continues to burn, and we just started putting more fuel on the fire.

vikingBerserker said:

Which is worse, the virus or the reaction to it?

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Answer 1: That likely depends on whether you lost family members to it;
Answer 2: FORTUNATELY the reaction.

Today's Imponderable: What would have been the change to the 1918-1919-1920 plague if we'd responded to it as we have the Wuhan Kung Flu?

Minnesota report, May 9
cases 10,790***, recovered 6,322, hospitalized 1,549, deaths 558**/***, tested 106,263*/***
fatality rate 5.2%
mortality rate 97.9 per million
test rate 18.6 per thousand*
<
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Minnesota report, May 10
cases 11,271***, recovered 6,882, hospitalized 1,657, deaths 578**/***, tested 111,088*/***
fatality rate 5.1%
mortality rate 101 per million
test rate 19.5 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test has just passed 5,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**Approximately 80% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109, and 98% of deaths have occurred among patients with underlying health conditions. In Minnesota the median age of death is 83.
***The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be increasing again. In theory this is at least partly (largely?) due to the increased rate of testing. HOWEVER, over the last 10 days, the new hospitalization rate has slowly increased from 118/day to 199/day. The death rate has remained steady for the last 10 days at 20-30 per day.

TheMadPenguin said:

Answer 1: That likely depends on whether you lost family members to it;
Answer 2: FORTUNATELY the reaction.

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I would say that should be
Answer 1: That likely depends on whether you lost family members to it;
Answer 2: That likely depends on which risk group you are in.
Answer 2: The reaction, which will depend on whether your area is opening up too fast or too slow.

At present mine seems to be opening about right but other states like Victoria are opening while the infection rate is climbing again. Thank the gods there are two borders between there and here.

I think this guy is spot on:

Hey TheMadPenguin,

re your post#2,184: "Today's Imponderable: What would . . ."

There is quite a bit at the link below related to your question (not specifically H1N1 but to similar viruses) with the focus on planning for the eventuality.

"National Pandemic Strategy | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC"

Note the continued plan updates at the bottom of the website page.

A good friend of mine who happened to be one of those not taking this seriously, and foolishly thinking the reaction to the virus Is an overreaction just announced on FB his mother was just put on a ventilator because of it.

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:

A good friend of mine who happened to be one of those not taking this seriously, and foolishly thinking the reaction to the virus Is an overreaction just announced on FB his mother was just put on a ventilator because of it.

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I hate to say it serves him right but only because it is his mother, not him, who is infected

MiTasol said:

I hate to say it serves him right but only because it is his mother, not him, who is infected

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I don't know what kind of contact he had with her, if she was working, or if she was social distancing.

Either way I hope he feels as guilty as **** because it is highly likely she was taking a lot of her clues from him and not social distancing

Hmm...wonder if he still thinks people are over-reacting? Either way, I hope his Mum beats the virus and pulls through.

Here in NZ we are about to move to Alert level 2, which some people are saying couldn't come soon enough. I have to admit, going a bit stir crazy. Here's what Level 2 will look like:

Alert Level 2

It'll take a few weeks to determine what the impact of opening up shops, restaurants and bars and allowing lengthy travel within the country will be, whether the decreasing rate of infection will continue or whether it will increase as a result of Level 3 restrictions being lifted.

Italy report, 11th May 5 pm CEST
cases 219,814, +744, deaths 30,739, +179, recovered 106,587 , +1,401, active cases 82,488, -836, tests 2,606,652, +40,740
fatality rate 14%
mortality rate 510 per million
test rate 43.2 per thousand
positive rate 8.4%
total case rate 3,644 per million
active case rate 1,368 per million
test rate today 675 per million
positive rate today 1.8%
new case rate today 12 per million

TheMadPenguin said:

Answer 1: That likely depends on whether you lost family members to it;
Answer 2: FORTUNATELY the reaction.

Today's Imponderable: What would have been the change to the 1918-1919-1920 plague if we'd responded to it as we have the Wuhan Kung Flu?

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There's data out there. Cities within the US which responded rapidly with social distancing and quarantining did better than those which didn't. Compare, for example, St Louis and Philadelphia.

Here in Aus they are also opening up and some of it makes no sense at all.
Restaraunts are allowed 10 patrons - regardless of size.
Our two favourite restaraunts hold 16 people and over 200 people respectively and both are only allowed the same number of patrons. The small one cannot social distance with more than one table.

And I got this from a friend in the US. I am sure many will agree with it. I think it was written by a woman and I have removed the political words.

THE COVID IS RAGING
MY LIFE IS A MESS
I LIVE IN PYJAMAS
AND DON'T HAVE TO DRESS

I'M IN ISOLATION
JUST STAYING AT HOME
AND WOULD GIVE MY LAST DOLLAR
TO BE FREE TO ROAM

I'M SERIOUSLY AT RISK
(OR THAT'S WHAT THEY SAY)
TELLING ME TO STAY IN
AND NOT GO OUT EACH DAY

IN MY HEAD I'M SO YOUNG
THOUGH MY LICENCE REVEALS
I'M A 70-PLUS SENIOR
(BUT THAT'S NOT HOW IT FEELS!)

WHEN I RUN OUT OF FOOD
AND DELIVERIES ARE LATE
I HAVE TO BUY GROCERIES
BETWEEN 7 AND 8

SO EARLY IN THE MORNING
I HEAD OUT TO RESTOCK
AND DISCOVER A LINE UP
THAT WINDS 'ROUND THE BLOCK

SOCIAL DISTANCING SENIORS
ALL 6 FEET APART
MAKE ME WONDER JUST WHEN
I BECAME AN OLD FART

MY MEALS ARE REPETITIVE
(A LOT LIKE MY GAS!)
AND I'M TIRED OF DISCUSSING
WHY ***** IS AN ASS

MY LATEST NEW OUTFIT
IS GLOVES AND A MASK
AND I'M STARTING TO WONDER
IF I'M UP TO THIS TASK

I WASH ALL MY GROCERIES
ALL FRUIT, MEAT AND VEG.......
WILL THIS ADDITIONAL PRECAUTION
TIP ME OVER THE EDGE?

MY BEAUTIFUL BROWN HAIR
HAS WIDE ROOTS OF GREY
NO HAIRDRESSERS AROUND
TO HELP WASH THEM AWAY

I'VE BEEN TALKING TO MYSELF
NOW I'M ANSWERING BACK
IS IT MONDAY OR FRIDAY?
I'VE REALLY LOST TRACK

I'VE STOPPED DOING HOUSEWORK
IT'S WEEKS SINCE I'VE DUSTED
AND I KNOW WITHOUT VISITORS
I'LL NEVER GET BUSTED

I FACETIME MY FRIENDS
OR WE GROUP CHAT ON ZOOM
AND TRY TO PRETEND
WE'RE ALL IN THE SAME ROOM

THANK GOD LIQUOR STORES
ARE CONSIDERED 'ESSENTIAL'
WITHOUT DAILY DRINKS
THIS WOULD DRIVE US ALL MENTAL

EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE
IT IS GOOD TO REFLECT
ON WHAT THIS ALL MEANS
AND WHAT WE CAN EXPECT

IT'S A TIME TO BE GRATEFUL
FOR ALL THAT WE'VE GOT
LIKE A WARM HOUSE AND FOOD
THAT OTHERS HAVE NOT

THE BOTTOM LINE HERE
BY THE TIME THIS ALL ENDS
IS THAT WE'LL GET THROUGH IT
WITH OUR FAMILY AND FRIENDS

SO EVEN IF YOUR PARTNER
IS A BIT OF A GRUMP
YOU CAN REALLY BE GRATEFUL
YOU'RE NOT MARRIED TO *****!

Here (Connecticut, just to the right of New York on the map), they'll be allowing restaurants to open outside seating areas starting on May 20th, then may go to allowing dine-in eating at 50% of capacity, so patrons can be seated in groups six feet apart. Restaurants were allowed to sell food for delivery or for take-out, but this didn't work quite so well for bars. Some restaurants were also selling drinks for take-out although this is technically illegal it doesn't seem to be enforced. Regardless, this has been very bad for restaurant staff, especially the people who work in the front of the house as their income is almost entirely dependent on tips.

Latest B.C. numbers.

Good enough for me to return to work Wednesday night

TheMadPenguin said:

What would have been the change to the 1918-1919-1920 plague if we'd responded to it as we have the Wuhan Kung Flu?

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A damn site better than what traditionally happened. Following the war, the Pacific Islands, previously distanced from the effects of the 'flu because of their geography, suffered terribly as a result of their reliance on seaborne trade with New Zealand. Vanuatu, Samoa, Fiji, the Cook islands all had very high rates of infection, with Western Samoa being the worst, oddly, because American Samoa managed to stave off the effects and didn't suffer a single fatality.

Why? Because the US governor of American Samoa had monitored the effects the 'flu was having in the continental USA and decided to take matters into his own hands, placing a quarantine in effect across the whole island and no ships from NZ were allowed, nursing stations were set up around the island and social distancing measures were put in place. US navy ships were brought in as offshore hospitals where the contaminated were removed to, to avoid the virus' spread. He warned the NZ governor of Western Samoa to do the same, but alas he did not and the population suffered extraordinarily high rates of death and infection.

How American Samoa Kept a Pandemic at Bay | James Stout

If ever there was a demonstration of the effectiveness of the imposition of lockdown compared to when it isn't imposed, this is it.