Coronavirus Thread

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Zipper730

Chief Master Sergeant
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Nov 9, 2015
I think we need a thread to keep abreast of what's going on: This isn't to be political.

I've been hearing some figures that are coming in from Italy and Iran.

Italy COVID-19 Death Toll Rises to 21
So far, indications suggest 21 dead out of 820 total, making for a mortality rate of 2.56% These figures seem to conform with other statistical listings cited.

Iran's Deaths at Least 210, Hospitals Say
I'm not sure what the mortality rate is because the hospitals are listing 210 dead and the Iranian government only listing 34 dead. Without further information, it's making it difficult to calculate mortality rates.
 
...and for some reason, certain people are panicking.

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I'm not sure exactly what to make of it. By some metrics it looks like nothing anymore worrisome than a bad flu and by others quite bad.
I think the potential bad case scenario involves sheer numbers. While the fatality rate is no more spectacular than a bad flu it is about 3 or 4 times more contagious.
Whether this turns out to be just another" bad flu year" kinda thing or something really ugly because 2% of say 30% of the worlds population is alot of people, will depend on how much of a foothold it gets.
Looks to me like it has the potential to be either no big deal or the Spanish Flu act 2.
Lets just hope its the former.
 
I'm not sure exactly what to make of it. By some metrics it looks like nothing anymore worrisome than a bad flu and by others quite bad.
And I'm not sure if it's healthcare related, genetic variables, or some combination of both.
I think the potential bad case scenario involves sheer numbers. While the fatality rate is no more spectacular than a bad flu it is about 3 or 4 times more contagious.
Which means more infections.
Looks to me like it has the potential to be either no big deal or the Spanish Flu act 2.
The population is a lot higher these days than it was back in 1918. We might see death tolls that would be around 80-200 million if the numbers were increased four fold (I saw that number come up before).
Lets just hope its the former.
I think most sane people want that!
 
The more I thought about this the more I think, "Not really seeing the point of this thread". Do we need a thread to "keep abreast of everything ".... no....that's what news channels and apps are for. We're not going to solve anything, we're just a bunch of motley aviation enthusiasts. Up to this point fear mongering is more deadlier than the disease. With that said, will I participate in it anymore.....no....I'd rather lick doorknobs in China

edit: bloody typos. go over everything twice and never see it
 
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I'll one better you on the lame societal response. People from Carona( Carona, Ca for those not familiar) have been getting harrased on line apparently as if they are carriers because they are from Carona.
Dont know exactly how many incidents of this there have been but its enough that it made the news.
 
38% of American beer drinkers surveyed this week said they wouldn'y buy Corona "under any circumstances" at the moment. It's worth noting that, among regular Corona drinkers, only 4% said they would now refrain. Yet 14% of the Corona drinkers admitted they would not order the brand in a public place, found the survey, conducted by 5W Public Relations. Sixteen percent of the beer drinkers surveyed by 5W were confused about whether Corona beer is related to the coronavirus, according to the publicity agency

Because of coronavirus, 38% of beer-drinking Americans now say they won't order a Corona
 
38% of American beer drinkers surveyed this week said they wouldn'y buy Corona "under any circumstances" at the moment. It's worth noting that, among regular Corona drinkers, only 4% said they would now refrain. Yet 14% of the Corona drinkers admitted they would not order the brand in a public place, found the survey, conducted by 5W Public Relations. Sixteen percent of the beer drinkers surveyed by 5W were confused about whether Corona beer is related to the coronavirus, according to the publicity agency

Because of coronavirus, 38% of beer-drinking Americans now say they won't order a Corona
Its no better in UK, any public education campaign starts from a staggeringly low level. even with the people supposedly in charge.
 
38% of American beer drinkers surveyed this week said they wouldn'y buy Corona "under any circumstances" at the moment. It's worth noting that, among regular Corona drinkers, only 4% said they would now refrain. Yet 14% of the Corona drinkers admitted they would not order the brand in a public place, found the survey, conducted by 5W Public Relations. Sixteen percent of the beer drinkers surveyed by 5W were confused about whether Corona beer is related to the coronavirus, according to the publicity agency

Because of coronavirus, 38% of beer-drinking Americans now say they won't order a Corona
I don't find it surprising that these people exist, unfortunately. The percentages expressed in this survey however do leave me stunned............and just a bit worried honestly.
 
Corona Virus is a TYPE of virus and there were 6 types that infected humans. This newly evolved type is Number Seven.
Probably the two most well known corona viruses known to infect humans are SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) followed by MERS. Two more, human coronaviruses causing infections are 229E and OC43, which are responsible for the majority of cases of the common cold. Number Five is NL63 an alpha coronavirus which was identified in 2004 in Amsterdam in a young child suffering from a severe respiratory infection. Number Six is HKU1 a beta coronavirus which was identified in 2006 in Hong Kong in 13 patients suffering from, again, a severe upper respiratory infection. The newly evolved Number Seven virus is SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19. A close relative of the original SARS virus, it has recently evolved to be able to infect humans.

What made SARS of particular threat in 2002-2003 was that, along with its close relative Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), it is the only pathogen on the World Health Organization's R&D Blueprint list of priority diseases which can be spread from human to human respiratorily. SARS spread to 37 countries and infected roughly 8,000 killing 750 for a lethality rate of about 10%. MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) is less easily passed from human to human, but has greater lethality, killing 35% of about 2,500 people who have been infected. Viruses in other families like filoviruses (wherein Ebola is classified) have higher mortality rates, but are also less easily passed from person to person.
Before it was contained, 8,000 people had contracted SARS; more than 700 people died. All told, SARS is estimated to have cost between $30 and $50 billion to the global economy from 2002 to 2003.
The mortality rate was around 2% in the epicentre of the outbreak, Hubei province, and less than that elsewhere. For comparison, seasonal flu typically has a mortality rate below 1% and is thought to cause about 400,000 deaths each year globally. SARS had a death rate of more than 10%.

These infectious viral diseases have a tendency to evolve in China where population densities are high, humans live in close proximity to animals, and like COVID-19 originated in areas where live and freshly slaughtered animals of all species, reptiles, birds, mammals, fish were sold. COVID-19 in particular evolved in China's Guangdong Province's open air markets. Chinese scientists also identified horseshoe bats as the virus' natural reservoir of the COVID-19 virus.
While the resulting URI caused by Covid-19, is not as fatal on a case-by-case basis, its greater spread has already led to more deaths than its related coronaviruses types.

The new study in China examined data from 72,314 patients, 44,672 of which were confirmed cases of the virus (61.8%), along with 10,567 clinically diagnosed cases (14.6%) and 16,186 suspected cases (22.4%). An additional 889 cases examined did not show any symptoms.
"Clinically diagnosed cases," are patients who demonstrate all the symptoms of Covid-19 but have either not been able to get a test or are believed to have falsely tested negative.
Of the 44,672 confirmed cases, the Chinese CDC said there were 1,023 deaths, a crude mortality rate of 2.3%, which is in line with other studies and projections. By comparison, SARS had a mortality rate of 9.6% during the 2003 outbreak, while MERS has a case fatality of 35%. Seasonal influenza, which is highly contagious and effects tens of millions of people, has a mortality rate of around 0.1%, according to the most recent estimates from the US Centers for Disease Control.

Examination of the COVID-19 fatalities show that many had preexisting conditions, including hypertension, diabetes, or cardiovascular disease. Males had a death rate of 2.8% while females had a death rate of 1.7%. Age also is a factor. In those under the age of 50 the risk of death is less than 0.5% while in those over the age of 70 it is more than 8%. No deaths have occurred under the age of ten so far.
 
Age and whether or not one is a smoker seem to be the two most determining factors in fatality rate disparities other than pre existing conditions like diabetes. Nothing we can do about our age but if you still smoke, now might be a good time to quit. The lungs begin to repair almost immediately and nicotine gum or patches make it pretty easy. Trust me I know.
Not trying to proselytize. Just hope this will be a little encouragement for someone who could benefit.
 
Dram you're good, got me again. OK I admit that I did not travel to China, I do not have a CDC certified biohazard lab, and didn't do any original research on the virus in my basement lab. The Stats were from the Chinese report as stated in my post. seemed silly to to to paraphrase so to maintain accuracy I did copy them. The rest was looked up from various sources as I did not want false recollection to creep in.
I am very personally interested in this pending pandemic as I am in a group of seriously susceptible individuals for several reasons. So I am closely monitoring all published data
 
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