Coronavirus Thread

Marcel said:

Yes and a fork can hold a little water, but you won't use it to eat your soup.

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If all you have is a fork to eat the soup, I would suggest that is better than not eating at all.

Highly inefficient but better than the alternative...

Marcel said:

The other thing I am arguing against is the promotion of self made masks or using other non-effective masks. I saw the Belgian government promoting masks made out of old socks for crying out loud. 95% of the air and moisture you breath will go right through or around those masks.

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Again, 5% is better than 0%. Ask my sister, a nurse, she will take 5% all day long.

Marcel said:

But what I really argue is that the slight benefit they possibly have doesn't counter the disadvantages. I see people throwing away their possibly infected masks like they are cigarette-butts. You find them everywhere on the street here. I see people pulling down the masks in order to use their cellphone, in the mean time touching the possibly infected outside of their inadequate masks, increasing the amount of particles on their hands and smearing that on surfaces for transmission to others (surfaces are the main way of spreading cold- and influenza viruses anyway, not aerosols). These people go out even with symptoms, not keeping distance because they have a mask that 'will protect anyway'. These are just examples of the disadvantages and I believe they are more contributing to the spreading than really countering it.

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Most of the current research I am seeing suggests Covid-19 is less likely to spread through surface transmission and more likely to be spread via aerosol.

Frankly at this point I'm not sure anyone knows what is really going on, which argues the point that we should do everything we can to tamp down the spread. If some people don't follow safe practices that is not a good argument to discontinue those practices.

Minnesota report, June 13
cases 30,172, recovered 25,620, hospitalized 3,581, deaths 1,283*, tested 407,992
fatality rate 4.3%*
mortality rate 225.1 per million
test rate 71.6 per thousand

*On the plus side:

As of the end of April, approximately 80% of Minnesota's COVID-19 deaths occurred among cases originating in Minnesota's extended care and assisted living facilities. Over the last 2 months Minnesota has exerted great effort to control the outbreaks in these facilities. Beginning on or about 25 May the efforts appear to have begun paying off. As the case rate among the more vulnerable elderly living in extended care and assisted living facilities has decreased, so has the overall fatality rate, falling from a high of 7.6% on 26 April to a steady 4.3% over the last 2 weeks.

On the minus side:

Minnesota has seen an uptick in cases and deaths among people less than 60 years of age. Although the overall numbers are still small (accounting for only 7% of the fatalities), approximately 15% of these fatalities had no known underlying health issues. This is drastically different compared to the previous 2 1/2 months, where the fatalities without underlying health conditions accounted for only 1.5%.

If I wear the mask, I am not prevented from catching the Chinese virus. Your wearing a mask reduces my chance of being infected. The life you save by wearing one might be mine.

Italy report, 14th June 5pm CEST, weekly changes
cases 236,989, +1,991, deaths 34,345, +446, recovered 176,370, +10,533, active cases 26,274, -8,988, tests 4,620,718, +384,183, people tested 2,846,621, +219,433
fatality rate 14.5% (+0.1)
mortality rate 569 per million (+7)
test rate 76.6 per thousand (+6.5)
positive rate 8.3% (-0.6)
test rate this week 6,369 per million (+437)
positive rate this week 0.9% (-0.1)
new case rate this week 33 per million (=)

not the Chinese virus, Covid-19

Chinese Corona Virus, causing the Wu Han Kung Flu.

TheMadPenguin said:

Chinese Corona Virus, causing the Wu Han Kung Flu.

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I was going to rate this as Dumb, but that would be rude so I will just Dislike it.

Been too busy to check my promed mails since mid last week.
Here is an interesting report from Switzerland - it appears to have 10.6 undiagnosed cases for every confirmed case
we estimated that for every reported confirmed case, there were 11.6 infections in the community.

Equally interesting is those older than 65 years (RR, 0.50 [0.28-0.78]) had a significantly lower risk of being seropositive than those aged 20-49 years. Maybe Gnomey can translate that into simple English.


[2] Switzerland (Geneva) serosurvey
Date: Thu 11 Jun 2020
Source: The Lancet [edited]
<https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31304-0/fulltext>


Citation: Stringhini S, Wisniak A, Piumatti G, et al. Seroprevalence
of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Geneva, Switzerland
(SEROCoV-POP): a population-based study. Lancet. Epub 11 Jun 2020.
<https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31304-0>

Summary
------
Background: Assessing the burden of COVID-19 on the basis of medically
attended case numbers is suboptimal given its reliance on testing
strategy, changing case definitions, and disease presentation.
Population-based serosurveys measuring anti-severe acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus 2 (anti-SARS-CoV-2) antibodies provide one method
for estimating infection rates and monitoring the progression of the
epidemic. Here, we estimate weekly seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2
antibodies in the population of Geneva, Switzerland, during the
epidemic.

Methods: The SEROCoV-POP study is a population-based study of former
participants of the Bus Sante study [an annual health examination
survey of a representative sample of the population of the canton] and
their household members. We planned a series of 12 consecutive weekly
serosurveys among randomly selected participants from a previous
population-representative survey, and their household members aged 5
years and older. We tested each participant for anti-SARS-CoV-2-IgG
antibodies using a commercially available ELISA. We estimated
seroprevalence using a Bayesian logistic regression model taking into
account test performance and adjusting for the age and sex of Geneva's
population. Here we present results from the first 5 weeks of the
study.

Findings: Between 6 Apr 2020 and 9 May 2020, we enrolled 2766
participants from 1339 households, with a demographic distribution
similar to that of the canton of Geneva. In the 1st week, we estimated
a seroprevalence of 4.8% (95% CI, 2.4-8.0; n = 341). The estimate
increased to 8.5% (5.9-11.4; n = 469) in the 2nd week, 10.9%
(7.9-14.4; n = 577) in the 3rd week, 6.6% (4.3-9.4; n = 604) in the
4th week, and 10.8% (8.2-13.9; n = 775) in the 5th week. Individuals
aged 5-9 years (relative risk [RR], 0.32 [95% CI, 0.11-0.63]) and
those older than 65 years (RR, 0.50 [0.28-0.78]) had a significantly
lower risk of being seropositive than those aged 20-49 years. After
accounting for the time to seroconversion, we estimated that for every
reported confirmed case, there were 11.6 infections in the community.

Interpretation: These results suggest that most of the population of
Geneva remained uninfected during this wave of the pandemic, despite
the high prevalence of COVID-19 in the region (5000 reported clinical
cases over less than 2.5 months in the population of half a million
people). Assuming that the presence of IgG antibodies is associated
with immunity, these results highlight that the epidemic is far from
coming to an end by means of fewer susceptible people in the
population. Further, a significantly lower seroprevalence was observed
for children aged 5-9 years and adults older than 65 years, compared
with those aged 10-64 years. These results will inform countries
considering the easing of restrictions aimed at curbing transmission.

--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>

[It is interesting to see that the estimated uncaptured rate of the
surveillance system is 11.6 -- so for each reported case there are
11.6 additional infected individuals -- in keeping with the estimated
range of 10 to 20 uncaptured infections per reported case. The survey
population is described as: "The SEROCoV-POP study is a
population-based study of former participants of the Bus Sante study
and their household members. The Bus Sante study is a yearly
representative stratified sample of 500 men and 500 women from the
general population of the canton of Geneva. Eligible individuals were
aged 20-74 years, identified through an annual residential list
established by the local government." -- providing somewhat more
validity to the results as representative of the population of the
Canton of Geneva. Interestingly, there was only one positive child in
the 5- to 9-year-old age-group, in a household where there was a
positive adult case, consistent with the observation of children being
less affected. The authors mentioned that there was household
clustering, but there were 21 (17.1%) that had at least one positive
household member. - Mod.MPP]

Minnesota report, June 14
cases 30,471, recovered 26,090, hospitalized 3,610, deaths 1,288, tested 417,710
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 226 per million
test rate 73.3 per thousand

TheMadPenguin said:

Chinese Corona Virus, causing the Wu Han Kung Flu.

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I would have went with "Kung Flu". If this things ever dies down, we can change it to "Kung Flu: The Legend Continues"

Disclaimer
Since you need one on everything these days, this is not meant to be considered in anyway insulting to: Chinese people, the People's Republic of China, people of Asian descent and people who like Chinese food, or additionally, those that were fans of Kung Fu: The Legend Continues...

Zipper730 said:

Disclaimer
Since you need one on everything these days, this is not meant to be considered in anyway insulting to: Chinese people, the People's Republic of China, people of Asian descent and people who like Chinese food, or additionally, those that were fans of Kung Fu: The Legend Continues.

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Insult is determined in the eyes of the recipient, not the intentions of the perpetrator, making disclaimers irrelevant. You have just insulted everyone in your disclaimer and then some: easily a quarter of the world's population, and the true Master Race to come. As a small minority in the coming turbulent world, we can no longer afford that sort of cultural arrogance. Tread lightly, my friend!

"People's Republic"... is that an oxymoron?

I see New Zealand has a couple of cases, after having got down to 0.

wuzak said:

I see New Zealand has a couple of cases, after having got down to 0.

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Even so, they have a better control over it than almost anyone else. Besides the have a hot PM.

at6 said:

Besides the have a hot PM.

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Hot? You mean as in stolen property?

Wow quite a few racist overtones emerging in this thread

at6 said:

Even so, they have a better control over it than almost anyone else. Besides the have a hot PM.

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I believe those cases were imported as well.

wuzak said:

I believe those cases were imported as well.

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Yeah, people who came into the country, and because of compassionate reasons didn't complete the 14 days quarantine. For some reason, that also meant that they didn't have to have testing....