Coronavirus Thread

[pbehn]

There is now a new definition of time. The shortest known period of time used to be the period between a light turning to green and a Saudi Arabian sounding their car horn. This has been replaced by the period between some unknown academic saying "this isn't political" and then making some stupid political comment.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

So, in order to not be political que have to believe their claims? Because that is the issue, btw, I wouldnt believe anything coming from the current US govt either... not because of politics, but because they, just like the Chinese, have been caught lying.

Simple as that.

No one is stating you have to believe their claims or any other government's claims; your opinion and that's fine. If you have tangible evidence to show the Chinese (or any government) are lying about their coronavirus numbers, please let us know, in the meantime this is just your opinion, and I think you know the old saying about opinions....

 

[JAG88]

No one is stating you have to believe their claims or any other government's claims; your opinion and that's fine. If you have tangible evidence to show the Chinese (or any government) are lying about their coronavirus numbers, please let us know, in the meantime this is just your opinion, and I think you know the old saying about opinions....

Coronavirus: Wuhan doctor speaks out against authorities

They lied from the start, so no, I dont have to show proof to distrust their subsequent statements, their credibility is already ruined, and many of their declarations are simply transparent propaganda... unless you believe the US Army caused the outbreak like you believe their numbers...

Chinese diplomat promotes conspiracy theory that US military brought virus to Wuhan - CNN

But hey, maybe they are right, it wouldnt be the first time the US has purposely infected people in other countries...

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Coronavirus: Wuhan doctor speaks out against authorities

They lied from the start, so no, I dont have to show proof to distrust their subsequent statements, their credibility is already ruined, and many of their declarations are simply transparent propaganda... unless you believe the US Army caused the outbreak like you believe their numbers...

And since that time those who have suppressed information (by virtue of working in their system) have been removed. IMO the Chinese government has been forthcoming with information (despite the propaganda music paying in the backgrond)

Chinese diplomat promotes conspiracy theory that US military brought virus to Wuhan - CNN

And utter nonsense as well as the other dozen or so conspiracy theories to include this virus was made in a Chinese lab.

But hey, maybe they are right, it wouldnt be the first time the US has purposely infected people in other countries...

Although non disputable (depending who you believe), that's the kind of political BS I don't want to have here. I suggest you tone it down.

 

[MiTasol]

I remember when I had Facebook......for about 5 minutes

yeah me too. The first batch of recommended freinds included a person on the cops most wanted list who I had never met.

Instant delete

 

[JAG88]

And since that time those who have suppressed information (by virtue of working in their system) have been removed. IMO the Chinese government has been forthcoming with information (despite the propaganda music paying in the backgrond)


And utter nonsense as well as the other dozen or so conspiracy theories to include this virus was made in a Chinese lab.

Although non disputable (depending who you believe), that's the kind of political BS I don't want to have here. I suggest you tone it down.

You know what, you are free to believe whomever you want...

 

[FLYBOYJ]

You know what, you are free to believe whomever you want...

Likewise -

 

[MiTasol]

This is getting serious - my local small store is out of toilet rolls .............. and my favourite wine !!
All other shelves were stocked nomally for the time of day.
Bl**dy ridiculous, in a town of around 60,000, with five large supermarkets and many, many shops, both local and in town, and the hoarding syndrome has started !
As of this morning, there were NO cases of Covid-19 recorded in the entire region - and the bl**dy weather here might ensure that no disease can live anyway !
And just to really annoy me, I can't get a repeat prescription of my meds for the RA until I have an annual review with the Nurse at my GP's surgery - and I can't get an appointment for a review, as 'footfall' is being restricted, due to the risk of Covid-19 !!!
Therefore, without meds, my condition worsens, pain increases, leading to lack of sleep and rest, resulting in an already weakened immune system becoming even more degraded and therefore vulnerable to any and all infections !
And now I can't even have a drink, or a sh*t !!!!!

Yep. And elective surgery is cancelled for the next 90 days in my preferred hospital - which I totally support - but my wife has had a "sore shoulder" for a couple of years and the doctor finally decided to do an xray because she packed a wobbly about her increasingly restricted movement. Turns out she has major osteo and the loss of movement is because the jagged growths have destroyed her muscles. She was diagnosed Tuesday and supposed to get a shoulder reversal on the 19th. NOT happy but the hospital is now home to the areas first Covid-19 patient and neither of us want to go near the place until that has been got under control. While there on Tuesday I noticed that 100% of the persons coming in and leaving held onto the hand rail on the steps up to the door. That is another area to avoid if you possibly can.

 

[MiTasol]

Coronavirus vs. Swine Flu - the numbers

Yes but remember that the swine flu also started with very small numbers.

Because of my job I need to keep up to date on all infectious diseases (fly-in fly-out staff from sometimes over 20 countries) and so I have a ProMED mail subscription from the International Society for Infectious Diseases (ISID).

If you want up to date and accurate information on Covid-19 get your own subscription - its free. Be warned - the daily summaries often run over 20 pages and can be difficult reading.

To provide a little perspective -- at this stage of the SARS outbreak one ProMED mail said SARS should be renamed MORS for Massive Over Reaction Syndrome, Swine flu never generated any panic now type material but this one is producing lots of very frightening data and absolutely no ho-hums from anyone.

ProMED-mail

And yes ISAD do question the accuracy and reliability of information from official Chinese sources. That at least is not a Dr Google or Dr Farcebook rumour.

 

[MiTasol]

I just mixed up a batch of hand sanitiser for some family members.

It's just a mixture of 99% isopropyl alcohol and aloe gel. Many model makers will already have the alcohol, I've got almost a litre of the stuff and the gel is till readily available.

It's a LOT cheaper than the branded stuff, assuming you can still find it.

You need to end up with more than 60% by volume alcohol, the maths isn't difficult and it doesn't need to be precise.

SOAP is better. It does not kill the antibodies on your skin you need to combat virus infections but does eliminate the shit that has to go.

 

[fubar57]

Similar to this Mi? Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports

 

[MiTasol]

With a little cabin fever settling in I decided to venture out and take a ride to my local Costco. My plan was to drive by and look at the massive lines BUT to my surprise, it was EMPTY!!! They did have signs stating no toilet paper, but aside from that they had plenty of food. I didn't check for hand sanitizer for disinfectants. I did by a few things including a 1.75 liter of Kirkland Irish Cream!

Obviously you are a member of the Temperance movement. I purchased 2 cases of my favourite wine last week and often have about 6 bottles of my favourite rum as I get two bottles every month going through duty free.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Although there is a lot of over-reaction, this is a reason why we should still take this shit seriously:

The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.

WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5.

Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58.

Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5.

An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.

For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 156,730 Cases and 5,839 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

 

[MiTasol]

Similar to this Mi? Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports

Similar yes but much drier and more detailed with info from many sources. The WHO report is just one of the reports in each digest. In this digest the important (to me) bits are in subjects 5 and 6

Example (a small part only of yesterdays report) - as I said it can be hard to digest

CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 UPDATE (38): GLOBAL, MORE COUNTRIES, VIRUS
SURFACE STABILITY, MITIGATION IMPACT, WHO
*************************************************************************************************************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

In this update:
[1] Global updates: CSSE & Worldometer
[2] China: China National Health Commission 13 Mar 2020
[3] Countries with notable local transmission (South Korea, Italy,
Iran)
[4] New countries confirming cases (14 countries)
[5] Virus surface stability
[6] How will mitigation measures influence the course of the epidemic
[7] WHO situation report 53 (as of 13 Mar 2020)

******
[1] Global updates: CSSE & Worldometer
Date: Fri 13 Mar 2020 [accessed 2:00 AM 14 Mar 2020]
Sources:
- Johns Hopkins CSSE (Center for Systems Science and Engineering)
[edited]
<https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6>
- Worldometer [edited]
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries>

Confirmed cases Start of data recording: 1st data / ... / 1 Mar 2020 /
... / 8 Mar 2020 / 9 Mar 2020 / 10 Mar 2020 / 11 Mar 2020 / 12 Mar
2020 / 13 Mar 2020 / Country

2 Feb 2020: 17 187 / ... / 80 024 / ... / 80 735 / 80 754 / 80 954 /
80 932 / 80 814 / 80 824 / Mainland China
2 Feb 2020: 20 / ... / 256 / ... / 502 / 511 / 581 / 639 / 691 / 734 /
Japan
2 Feb 2020: 19 / ... / 42 / ... / 50 / 50 / 53 / 59 / 70 / 75 /
Thailand
2 Feb 2020: 18 / ... / 106 / ... / 150 / 150 / 160 / 178 / 187 / 200 /
Singapore
2 Feb 2020: 15 / ... / 96 / ... / 114 / 115 / -- / -- / 132 / 132 /
Hong Kong
2 Feb 2020: 15 / ... / 3726 / ... / 7382 / 7478 / 7755 / 7979 / 8086 /
South Korea
2 Feb 2020: 12 / ... / 27 / ... / 76 / 91 / 107 / 128 / 160 / 199 /
Australia
2 Feb 2020: 10 / ... / 130 / ... / 1040 / 1176 / 1565 / 1966 / 2745 /
3675 / Germany
2 Feb 2020: 10 / ... / 40 / ... / 45 / 45 / -- / 48 / 49 / 50 /
Taiwan
2 Feb 2020: 11 / ... / 76 / ... / 547 / 605 / 972 / 1311 / 1762 / 2294
/ USA
2 Feb 2020: 8 / ... / 10 / ... / 10 / 10 / -- / -- / 10 / 10 / Macau
2 Feb 2020: 8 / ... / 29 / ... / 99 / 117 / 129 / 149 / 158 / 197 /
Malaysia
2 Feb 2020: 6 / ... / 130 / ... / 1209 / 1209 / 1784 / 2284 / 2876 /
3661 / France
2 Feb 2020: 6 / ... / 16 / ... / 30 / 30 / 31 / 38 / 44 / 44 / Viet
Nam
2 Feb 2020: 5 / ... / 21 / ... / 45 / 45 / 74 / 74 / 85 / 85 / United
Arab Emirates
2 Feb 2020: 4 / ... / 24 / ... / 64 / 77 / 79 / 117 / 158 / 198 /
Canada
2 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 1694 / ... / 7375 / 9172 / 10 149 / 12 462 / 15
113 / 17 660 / Italy
2 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 2 / ... / 17 / 17 / 10 / 20 / 34 / 45 / Russia
2 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 3 / ... / 10 / 20 / 33 / 49 / 52 / 64 /
Philippines
2 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 3 / ... / 39 / 43 / 56 / 62 / 75 / 82 / India
2 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 36 / ... / 273 / 321 / 382 / 459 / 590 / 798 /
UK
2 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Nepal
2 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 2 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 5 / 7 / Cambodia
2 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 84 / ... / 673 / 1073 / 1695 / 2277 / 3146 /
5232 / Spain
2 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 6 / ... / 23 / 30 / 40 / 59 / 109 / 155 /
Finland
2 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 14 / ... / 203 / 248 / 355 / 500 / 687 / 814 /
Sweden
2 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 6 / Sri Lanka
4 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / ... / 200 / 239 / 267 / 314 / 399 / 559 /
Belgium
14 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / ... / 49 / 55 / 59 / 60 / 80 / 93 / Egypt
19 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 978 / ... / 6566 / 7161 / 8042 / 9000 / 10 075
/ 11 364 / Iran
21 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 10 / ... / 32 / 32 / 41 / 61 / 68 / 77 /
Lebanon
21 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 10 / ... / 39 / 39 / 75 / 109 / 109 / 143 /
Israel
24 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 6 / ... / 16 / 16 / 18 / 18 / 18 / 19 / Oman
24 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 4 / 4 / 5 / 7 / 7 / 7 / Afghanistan
24 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 45 / ... / 64 / 64 / 69 / 72 / 80 / 100 /
Kuwait
24 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 47 / ... / 85 / 95 / 110 / 195 / 197 / 210 /
Bahrain
24 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 19 / ... / 60 / 60 / 71 / 71 / 83 / 101 / Iraq
25 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 14 / ... / 104 / 131 / 182 / 246 / 361 / 504 /
Austria
25 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / ... / 19 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 26 / 26 /
Algeria
25 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 7 / ... / 12 / 13 / 14 / 19 / 27 / 32 /
Croatia
25 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 27 / ... / 337 / 374 / 491 / 652 / 868 / 1139 /
Switzerland
26 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 4 / ... / 6 / 6 / 16 / 19 / 21 / 28 / Pakistan
26 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 19 / ... / 176 / 205 / 400 / 629 / 800 / 996 /
Norway
26 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / ... / 13 / 15 / 15 / 24 / 25 / 25 /
Georgia
26 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 3 / 3 / 7 / 7 / 9 / 14 / North
Macedonia
26 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / ... / 20 / 25 / 31 / 52 / 77 / 151 /
Brazil
26 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / ... / 15 / 15 / 25 / 47 / 59 / 95 /
Romania
26 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 7 / ... / 73 / 73 / 89 / 99 / 117 / 190 /
Greece
27 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 8 / ... / 36 / 36 / 51 / 62 / 72 / 80 / San
Marino
27 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 10 / ... / 265 / 321 / 382 / 503 / 614 / 804 /
Netherlands
27 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 4 / ... / 35 / 90 / 262 / 516 / 674 / 804 /
Denmark
27 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 10 / 10 / 13 / 16 / 27 / 79 /
Estonia
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 6 / Lithuania
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 1 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / Nigeria
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 50 / 58 / 69 / 85 / 117 / 134 /
Iceland
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / ... / 9 / 9 / 11 / 11 / 15 / 15 /
Azerbaijan
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 2 / Monaco
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 6 / 6 / 9 / 9 / 21 / 27 / Belarus
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 6 / New Zealand
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 5 / ... / 7 / 7 / 7 / 8 / 12 / 15 / Mexico
29 Feb 2020: 1 / 6 / ... / 14 / 15 / 15 / 17 / 17 / 23 / Ecuador
29 Feb 2020: 1 / 3 / ... / 15 / 18 / 24 / 262 / 262 / 320 / Qatar
29 Feb 2020: 1 / 1 / ... / 21 / 21 / 34 / 43 / 70 / 90 / Ireland
29 Feb 2020: 1 / 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 6 / 8 / Armenia
1 Mar 2020: 3 / ... / 31 / 31 / 41 / 94 / 116 / 141 / Czech Republic
1 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 / Dominican Republic
1 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / 3 / 5 / 7 / 26 / 38 / Luxembourg
2 Mar 2020: 2 / ... / 6 / 19 / 27 / 34 / 34 / 69 / Indonesia
2 Mar 2020: 2 / ... / 30 / 30 / 41 / 59 / 78 / 112 / Portugal
2 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Andorra
2 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 11 / 15 / 20 / 45 / 62 / 86 / Saudi Arabia
2 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 4 / 4 / 4 / 4 / 10 / 21 / Senegal
2 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / 2 / 3 / 6 / 6 / 7 / Morocco
2 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / 6 / 8 / 10 / 16 / 17 / Latvia
3 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 12 / 12 / 19 / 19 / 31 / 34 / Argentina
3 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Jordan
3 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 8 / 8 / 13 / 23 / 33 / 43 / Chile
3 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 3 / Ukraine
3 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 4 / 4 / Liechtenstein
3 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / 2 / 5 / 7 / 13 / 16 / Tunisia
4 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / 1 / 1 / -- / 1 / 1 / Saint Barthelemy
4 Mar 2020: 2 / ... / 7 / 9 / 9 / 13 / 16 / 19 / Hungary
4 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 2 / 2 / -- / 2 / 3 / Faroe Islands
4 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / -- / 1 / 1 / Gibraltar
4 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 11 / 16 / 22 / 31 / 51 / 68 / Poland
5 Mar 2020: 4 / ... / 22 / 22 / 25 / -- / 31 / 35 / Palestine [West
Bank]
5 Mar 2020: 2 / ... / 16 / 16 / 31 / -- / 96 / 141 / Slovenia
5 Mar 2020: 2 / ... / 3 / 3 / 5 / 7 / 11 / 18 / Bosnia & Herzegovina
5 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / 3 / 7 / 13 / 16 / 24 / South Africa
5 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 5 / 9 / 9 / 22 / 23 / 23 / Costa Rica
6 Mar 2020: 5 / ... / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 6 / 6 / French Guiana
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / 2 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / Martinique
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / Cameroon
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / 3 / 7 / 10 / 21 / 32 / Slovakia
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 6 / 7 / 11 / 13 / 22 / 38 / Peru
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Togo
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Vatican City
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 3 / 9 / 9 / 16 / Colombia
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Bhutan
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 5 / 12 / 24 / 35 / Serbia
7 Mar 2020: 3 / 3 / 3 / 5 / 6 / 9 / 12 / Malta
7 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 5 / 6 / 6 / Paraguay
8 Mar 2020: 4 / 4 / 4 / 7 / 23 / 31 / Bulgaria
8 Mar 2020: 4 / 4 / 6 / 8 / 8 / 9 / Maldives
8 Mar 2020: 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / Bangladesh
8 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / 3 / 3 / 6 / 6 / Moldova
9 Mar 2020: 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / Burkina Faso
9 Mar 2020: 2 / 10 / 15 / 23 / 33 / Albania
9 Mar 2020: 2 / 2 / ... / 2 / 2 / St Martin
9 Mar 2020: 2 / 3 / 6 / 10 / 14 / Cyprus
9 Mar 2020: 2 / 1 / 11 / 25 / 37 / Brunei
10 Mar 2020: 1 / -- / 3 / 3 / Channel Islands
10 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Mongolia
10 Mar 2020: 1 / 8 / 27 / 27 / Panama
11 Mar 2020: 2 / 3 / 10 / Bolivia
11 Mar 2020: 2 / 2 / 8 / Jamaica
11 Mar 2020: 2 / 2 / 2 / Honduras
11 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / 5 / Turkey
11 Mar 2020: 1 / 4 / 5 / Reunion
11 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / 2 / DR Congo (Kinshasa)
11 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / 1 / Cote d'Ivoire
12 Mar 2020: 3 / 4 / Cuba
12 Mar 2020: 2 / 2 / Ghana
12 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / Guyana
12 Mar 2020: 1 / 3 / French Polynesia
12 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / St Vincent Grenadines
12 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / Trinidad & Tobago
13 Mar 2020: 4 / Kazakhstan
13 Mar 2020: 4 / Uruguay
13 Mar 2020: 3 / Puerto Rico
13 Mar 2020: 2 / Aruba
13 Mar 2020: 2 / Venezuela
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Sudan
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Antigua & Barbuda
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Cayman Islands
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Curacao
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Ethiopia
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Gabon
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Guadeloupe
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Guatemala
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Guinea
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Kenya
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Mauritania
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Saint Lucia
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Suriname
4 Feb 2020: 10 / ... / 705 / ... / 696 / 696 / 696 / 696 / 696 / 696 /
Others (Diamond Princess)

Total number of reported deaths: 5436
Deaths outside mainland China: 2247 [including 7 from the Diamond
Princess]

Italy: 1266
Iran: 514
Spain: 133
France: 79
South Korea: 72
USA: 50
Japan: 21
UK: 11
Switzerland: 11
Netherlands: 10
Iraq: 9
Germany: 8
Diamond Princess: 7
Philippines: 6
San Marino: 5
Hong Kong: 4
Indonesia: 4
Australia: 3

 

[fubar57]

Mercy me!!

 

[JAG88]

List missing the dead from Southamerica, not many... but still.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

List missing the dead from Southamerica, not many... but still.

Many of the sources collecting information are updating continually. Saw some information from Venezuela, 2 cases - both patients were recently in Spain

 

[fubar57]

List missing the dead from Southamerica, not many... but still.

Are there deaths there?

 

[MiTasol]

I have cut the numbers from topic 5 and 6 to make them readable and bolded the important things (to me) - the interesting comment is about New Zealands advertising
Note that, because the two diseases are related, there is often reference to SARS. Fomite is best summarised as saliva.

[5] Virus surface stability
Date: Fri 13 Mar 2020
Source: MedRxiv [edited]
<https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/03/10/2020.03.09.20033217.full.pdf>


ref: van Doremalen N, Bushmaker T, Morris D, et al. Aerosol and
surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to SARS-CoV-1.
medRxiv: 2020.2003.2009.20033217.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HCoV-19 (SARS-2) has caused more than 88 000 reported illnesses with a
current case-fatality ratio of approximately 2%. Here, we investigate
the stability of viable HCoV-19 on surfaces and in aerosols in
comparison with SARS-CoV-1. Overall, stability is very similar between
HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1. We found that viable virus could be detected
in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on
copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard, and up to 2-3 days on plastic and
stainless steel. HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar half-lives
in aerosols, with median estimates around 2.7 hours. Both viruses show
relatively long viability on stainless steel and polypropylene
compared to copper or cardboard: the median half-life estimate for
HCoV-19 is around 13 hours on steel and around 16 hours on
polypropylene. Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite
transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable
in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days.

--
Communicated by:
Charles Calisher
<[email protected]>

[Because high viral loads (SARS-CoV-2) are found in the upper and
lower respiratory tracts of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection,
transmissibility routes for the virus were looked at and compared with
those seen in SARS-CoV-1 (the virus responsible for the 2002/2003 SARS
outbreak). While the SARS-CoV-2 is demonstrating a higher
transmissibility than the SARS-CoV-1, the 2 viruses have very similar
environmental viability. The authors discuss possible explanations for
the increased transmissibility:

1. The SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals may well shed virus while
pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic, thereby reducing the efficacy of
quarantine and contact tracing.
2. Other likely factors include the infectious dose needed to
establish an infection, stability of virus in mucus, and other
environmental factors such as the temperature and relative humidity.

The authors discussed superspreading events that were major events
triggering chains of transmission during the 2002-2003 outbreak of
SARS through fomite and aerosol transmission; they concluded that
given the similar profiles of the 2 viruses, it is highly likely that
the SARS-CoV-2 may also have superspreading events.

The authors concluded that aerosol and fomite transmission of the
SARS-CoV-2 are plausible, since the virus can remain viable in
aerosols for multiple hours, and on surfaces up to days.

We have anecdotal observations (pending official epidemiologic
presentations) demonstrating the chains of transmissions provoked by
index case superspreaders) that there have been superspreading
events/individuals associated with the outbreak in a church group
population in South Korea (and in their tour group to Israel and
Palestine), and in the newly identified outbreak in Westchester
County, New York. - Mod.MPP]

******
[6] How will mitigation measures influence the course of the epidemic
Date: Mon 9 Mar 2020
Source: The Lancet [abridged, edited]
<https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext>


Anderson RM, Heesterbeek, Klinkenberg D, Hollingsworth TD. How will
country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19
epidemic? Lancet. 2020; pii: S0140-6736(20)30567-5. doi:
10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In a Comment to The Lancet, Anderson et.al. discussed observations on
the impact of mitigation measures on the course of the COVID-19
epidemic at the country level.

Excerpts below:
"Governments will not be able to minimise both deaths from coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the economic impact of viral spread.
Keeping mortality as low as possible will be the highest priority for
individuals; hence governments must put in place measures to
ameliorate the inevitable economic downturn.

"What has happened in China shows that quarantine, social distancing,
and isolation of infected populations can contain the epidemic. This
impact of the COVID-19 response in China is encouraging for the many
countries where COVID-19 is beginning to spread. However, it is
unclear whether other countries can implement the stringent measures
China eventually adopted. Singapore and Hong Kong, both of which had
severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics in 2002-03, provide
hope and many lessons to other countries. In both places, COVID-19 has
been managed well to date, despite early cases, by early government
action and through social distancing measures taken by individuals.

"The course of an epidemic is defined by a series of key factors, some
of which are poorly understood at present for COVID-19. The basic
reproduction number (R0), which defines the mean number of secondary
cases generated by one primary case when the population is largely
susceptible to infection, determines the overall number of people who
are likely to be infected, or more precisely the area under the
epidemic curve. For an epidemic to take hold, the value of R0 must be
greater than unity in value.

"The speed of the initial spread of the epidemic, its doubling time,
or the related serial interval (the mean time it takes for an infected
person to pass on the infection to others), and the likely duration of
the epidemic are determined by factors such as the length of time from
infection to when a person is infectious to others and the mean
duration of infectiousness.

"First among the important unknowns about COVID-19 is the case
fatality rate (CFR), which requires information on the denominator
that defines the number infected. We are unaware of any completed
large-scale serology surveys to detect specific antibodies to
COVID-19.

"The 2nd unknown is whether infectiousness starts before onset of
symptoms. The incubation period for COVID-19 is about 5-6 days. In one
study of 17 patients with COVID-19, peak viraemia seems to be at the
end of the incubation period, pointing to the possibility that
viraemia might be high enough to trigger transmission for 1-2 days
before onset of symptoms.

"The 3rd uncertainty is whether there are a large number of
asymptomatic cases of COVID-19. Estimates suggest that about 80% of
people with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic disease, 14% have
severe disease, and 6% are critically ill, implying that symptom-based
control is unlikely to be sufficient unless these cases are only
lightly infectious.

"The 4th uncertainty is the duration of the infectious period for
COVID-19.

"A key issue for epidemiologists is helping policy makers decide the
main objectives of mitigation, such as, minimising morbidity and
associated mortality, avoiding an epidemic peak that overwhelms
healthcare services, keeping the effects on the economy within
manageable levels, and flattening the epidemic curve to wait for
vaccine development and manufacture on scale and antiviral drug
therapies. Such mitigation objectives are difficult to achieve by the
same interventions, so choices must be made about priorities. For
COVID-19, the potential economic impact of self-isolation or mandated
quarantine could be substantial, as occurred in China.

"No vaccine or effective antiviral drug is likely to be available
soon.

"So what is left at present for mitigation is voluntary plus mandated
quarantine, stopping mass gatherings, closure of educational
institutes or places of work where infection has been identified, and
isolation of households, towns, or cities. Social distancing measures
reduce the value of the effective reproduction number R.

"Therefore, broader-scale social distancing is likely to be needed, as
was put in place in China. This measure prevents transmission from
symptomatic and non-symptomatic cases, hence flattening the epidemic
and pushing the peak further into the future. Broader-scale social
distancing provides time for the health services to treat cases and
increase capacity, and, in the longer term, for vaccines and
treatments to be developed. The greater the reduction in transmission,
the longer and flatter the epidemic curve (figure), with the risk of
resurgence when interventions are lifted perhaps to mitigate economic
impact.

"Individual behaviour will be crucial to control the spread of
COVID-19.

"Data from China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran suggest that the CFR
increases sharply with age and is higher in people with COVID-19 and
underlying comorbidities. Targeted social distancing for these groups
could be the most effective way to reduce morbidity and concomitant
mortality."

--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail
<[email protected]>

[A graphic representation of the conclusions and discussions within
this comment has gone viral on the Internet (on Facebook and Twitter).
It is available at
<https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Covid-19-curves-graphic-social-v2.gif>.
A picture is worth 1000 words... it highlights how mitigation by
slowing down the rate of transmission flattens the curve (epidemic
curve) and helps to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the health
sector. - Mod.MPP]

 

[FLYBOYJ]

"The course of an epidemic is defined by a series of key factors, some
of which are poorly understood at present for COVID-19. The basic
reproduction number (R0), which defines the mean number of secondary
cases generated by one primary case when the population is largely
susceptible to infection, determines the overall number of people who
are likely to be infected, or more precisely the area under the
epidemic curve. For an epidemic to take hold, the value of R0 must be
greater than unity in value.

"The speed of the initial spread of the epidemic, its doubling time,
or the related serial interval (the mean time it takes for an infected
person to pass on the infection to others), and the likely duration of
the epidemic are determined by factors such as the length of time from
infection to when a person is infectious to others and the mean
duration of infectiousness.

Great post - and this is the biggest factor. This shit is showing an RO up to 4 depending on who's numbers you want to believe