Crimea_River
Marshal
While that's a good point, it's the wrong analogy. Seatbelts help save YOU. Masks help save OTHERS.
Covid-19 reports
- Thread starter Vincenzo
- Start date
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Guys, can you take the discussion about Covid somewhere else? To Facebook maybe? Or we'll have to close the thread.
Crimea_River
Marshal
Why?
Chris and I fell into the same trap in the last version of this thread. I feel it's not contributing to the forum and is turning ugly quite quickly. It's not dissimilar to politics threads in that way.
Dash119
Senior Airman
I think Stop signs may be the better analogy... And masks help save everyone, including you.
Guys, I'm serious. I'm willing to let
Vincenzo
have his platform to post Covid reports, but not if all self acclaimed experts think it necessary to tell everybody what to do in that same thread. Leave that to the real experts, please. I don't care if you are right or wrong.
Vincenzo
have his platform to post Covid reports, but not if all self acclaimed experts think it necessary to tell everybody what to do in that same thread. Leave that to the real experts, please. I don't care if you are right or wrong.
Crimea_River
Marshal
Well the last one got shut down and then this one started. It's the most urgent issue of our time and it deserves discussion. If not in this thread then maybe another. But don't just shut it down because people are debating and trying to understand a confusing but important subject.
TheMadPenguin
Senior Airman
Perhaps another factor contributing to differences in contagion and mortality is (AIUI) Italy has a higher incidence of multi-generational households than the US. Having youngers go out to school/work and coming home to elders perhaps increases the likelihood of the young bringing the virus home to the old.
Having read the Great Barrington Declaration, I'm reminded of my toddlerhood, where parents gathered their children into the house of a child with chickenpox to get everybody "vaccinated". Should we send the healthy out to get & get over this flu, in isolation from the vulnerable, then hope said recovered-ones are not vectors to infect the vulnerable? Perhaps the hope (I don't know of test results) that the plasma of the recovered ones will convey immunity to the vulnerable?
- Thread starter
- #49
TheMadPenguin, i've not study on multi-generational households, from my limited experience this was common when i was a boy*, i and my family lived with my paternal grandfather and many friend lived with their, but today i've difficult to find just one 3 generation family in the my friends circle, but there are surely strict contact with grandparents also if not lived with them.
* at time all my family (of 4) had just one bedroom, we gained the second bedroom only after my grandfather gone, other era and i'm not so old
* at time all my family (of 4) had just one bedroom, we gained the second bedroom only after my grandfather gone, other era and i'm not so old
ThomasP
Senior Master Sergeant
The ideas in the Great Barrington Declaration would have at least a small argument for validity if it addressed the 2 main problems of pandemics such as this one. Something that I think (If I am wrong I apologize) many people are forgetting.
The main purpose of the measures that have been taken so far and are recommended by the WHO and CDC (and similar agencies of most other nations) is to slow the spread of the virus to a manageable level. The secondary purpose is to try to keep the body count down in the short run. Possibly you could argue that the two effects are equally important in the intent behind the measures.
Without some sort of restrictions on movement and socialization there is no practical way to lower the rate of spread, thereby keeping the healthcare system from becoming overloaded. If we do not keep the rate of spread down and prevent the healthcare system from becoming overloaded, we cannot keep the kill rate down in the short run.
This consequence is basically not deniable in any competent manner. Another effect of keeping the rate of spread down is to buy time for the development and distribution of a vaccine. Without a vaccine, there is no practical way to keep the kill rate down in the long run.
Here in Minnesota, because we cannot rely on (insert what ever % makes you happy here) of the general population to adhere to lesser restrictions, we have had to reinstitute business closures and add in things like mask wearing. Masks have some effect, probably about (again, insert whatever % makes you happy here) in reducing the rate of spread.
Since the rate of spread and kill rate in the US and (insert here whatever other countries you feel are having problems) is very much higher than in countries that have taken similar or more strict measures (countries where the population adhered to the restrictions - for whatever reason) there is clear evidence that having (the percentage of population entered above) not adhere to the restrictions is enough to seriously interfere with the potential beneficial effects.
For countries that have been doing it right see:
Australia
Japan
New Zealand
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Vietnam
etc.
As a contrast, keeping in mind that Minnesota is doing better than most US states. The new lock-down in Minnesota took effect on Friday at normal end-of-business day or Midnight, whichever was later. All bars in Minnesota are now closed (except for take-out and delivery). On Saturday the bars in our neighboring state of Wisconsin, at least the ones close to Minnesota, were actually relatively crowded due to the influx of Minnesotans. It is estimated that more than 15,000 Minnesotans went to bars in Wisconsin over the weekend. Similar events occurred over the South Dakota and North Dakota borders, although in lesser numbers. Minnesota has a 13% positivity rate. North Dakota has a 13% positivity rate. Wisconsin has a 30% positivity rate. South Dakota has a 50%+ positivity rate.
The main purpose of the measures that have been taken so far and are recommended by the WHO and CDC (and similar agencies of most other nations) is to slow the spread of the virus to a manageable level. The secondary purpose is to try to keep the body count down in the short run. Possibly you could argue that the two effects are equally important in the intent behind the measures.
Without some sort of restrictions on movement and socialization there is no practical way to lower the rate of spread, thereby keeping the healthcare system from becoming overloaded. If we do not keep the rate of spread down and prevent the healthcare system from becoming overloaded, we cannot keep the kill rate down in the short run.
This consequence is basically not deniable in any competent manner. Another effect of keeping the rate of spread down is to buy time for the development and distribution of a vaccine. Without a vaccine, there is no practical way to keep the kill rate down in the long run.
Here in Minnesota, because we cannot rely on (insert what ever % makes you happy here) of the general population to adhere to lesser restrictions, we have had to reinstitute business closures and add in things like mask wearing. Masks have some effect, probably about (again, insert whatever % makes you happy here) in reducing the rate of spread.
Since the rate of spread and kill rate in the US and (insert here whatever other countries you feel are having problems) is very much higher than in countries that have taken similar or more strict measures (countries where the population adhered to the restrictions - for whatever reason) there is clear evidence that having (the percentage of population entered above) not adhere to the restrictions is enough to seriously interfere with the potential beneficial effects.
For countries that have been doing it right see:
Australia
Japan
New Zealand
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Vietnam
etc.
As a contrast, keeping in mind that Minnesota is doing better than most US states. The new lock-down in Minnesota took effect on Friday at normal end-of-business day or Midnight, whichever was later. All bars in Minnesota are now closed (except for take-out and delivery). On Saturday the bars in our neighboring state of Wisconsin, at least the ones close to Minnesota, were actually relatively crowded due to the influx of Minnesotans. It is estimated that more than 15,000 Minnesotans went to bars in Wisconsin over the weekend. Similar events occurred over the South Dakota and North Dakota borders, although in lesser numbers. Minnesota has a 13% positivity rate. North Dakota has a 13% positivity rate. Wisconsin has a 30% positivity rate. South Dakota has a 50%+ positivity rate.
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it's been debated all over the internet, so you have plenty of opportunity to discuss it. And everybody thinks they are experts while they are just adding to the confusion.
I leave it open for now, but if I see anybody being disrespectful to another member because they don't share their views, I will close it.
vikingBerserker
Lieutenant General
That's very interesting Thomas, based on your list I wonder if Race/Ethnicity comes into play in Southeast Asia. One of the aspects noted are people with low Vitamin D levels seem to be more susceptible to the Virus (and this issue occurs in some races more than others). I wonder if something else is going on that is making the peoples of that area less likely to catch it as well.
ThomasP
Senior Master Sergeant
Hey vikingBerserker,
[edit: I added Australia to my original list above.]
I do not think it is a matter of race, or ethnicity as such. These countries governments and population simply took the threat seriously from the beginning, plus some of them have more recent experience in dealing with epidemics/pandemics. Various countries from all over the world have done much better than the US as well, countries not included in the Southeast Asia group in regard to race or ethnicity (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan . . . all from what is considered South Asia - Norway, Finland, Latvia, Estonia, have all done very well . . . Sweden however . . . all from Northern Europe - etc). Check out the Worldometer website if you have not already done so and you will see what I mean. Some of the countries' stats are not up to date or complete, and some probably should not be relied upon for accuracy, but most countries are open enough to the press and international health agencies that the numbers can be considered "close enough" for our purposes.
If we factor in things like climate and ease of isolation - the UK should be in the same ballpark as Japan, but it is not - Israel should be doing as well as most of its Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East neighbors, but it is not - etc.
The only thing I have been able to isolate so far that is probably a major contributing factor to the differences in kill rate is whether the countries have concentrated populations of the vulnerable elderly - ie if long term care facilities for the old are common. England and my home state of Minnesota are good examples of this - in both instances we were unable to keep the initial spread out of our elderly care facilities. But this would not even begin to explain the differences in rate of spread since the late summer, and the current kill rates.
Here in the US we are at ~2000 deaths per day due to COVID-19, and - based on the rate of spread and confirmed case/hospitalization rates - we will be seeing 4000+ deaths per day by the end of the year.
Time for some funny cat pictures for me I think.
[edit: I added Australia to my original list above.]
I do not think it is a matter of race, or ethnicity as such. These countries governments and population simply took the threat seriously from the beginning, plus some of them have more recent experience in dealing with epidemics/pandemics. Various countries from all over the world have done much better than the US as well, countries not included in the Southeast Asia group in regard to race or ethnicity (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan . . . all from what is considered South Asia - Norway, Finland, Latvia, Estonia, have all done very well . . . Sweden however . . . all from Northern Europe - etc). Check out the Worldometer website if you have not already done so and you will see what I mean. Some of the countries' stats are not up to date or complete, and some probably should not be relied upon for accuracy, but most countries are open enough to the press and international health agencies that the numbers can be considered "close enough" for our purposes.
If we factor in things like climate and ease of isolation - the UK should be in the same ballpark as Japan, but it is not - Israel should be doing as well as most of its Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East neighbors, but it is not - etc.
The only thing I have been able to isolate so far that is probably a major contributing factor to the differences in kill rate is whether the countries have concentrated populations of the vulnerable elderly - ie if long term care facilities for the old are common. England and my home state of Minnesota are good examples of this - in both instances we were unable to keep the initial spread out of our elderly care facilities. But this would not even begin to explain the differences in rate of spread since the late summer, and the current kill rates.
Here in the US we are at ~2000 deaths per day due to COVID-19, and - based on the rate of spread and confirmed case/hospitalization rates - we will be seeing 4000+ deaths per day by the end of the year.
Time for some funny cat pictures for me I think.
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- Thread starter
- #54
% test positive, worldometers data for yesterday
Estonia 2.4% (positive/test) (34.6% test/population)
Latvia 2.4% (31.7%)
Finland 1.2% (33.8%)
Norway 1.6% (40.1%)
Sweden 7.9% (28.8%) they not do/did lock down
Pakistan 7.2% (2.4%)
Bangladesh 16.8% (1.6%)
India 6.9% (9.7%)
adding country from older post
Australia 0.3% (38.4%)
Japan 4.1% (2.6%)
New Zealand 0.2% (24.9%)
Singapore 1.3% (75.8%)
South Korea 1.1% (5.8%)
Taiwan 0.6% (0.5%)
Vietnam 0.1% (1.4%)
for comparison
USA 7% (56.1%)
Italy 7.1% (34.7%)
Germany 3.5% (33.2%)
Netherlands 12.8% (22.7%)
Estonia 2.4% (positive/test) (34.6% test/population)
Latvia 2.4% (31.7%)
Finland 1.2% (33.8%)
Norway 1.6% (40.1%)
Sweden 7.9% (28.8%) they not do/did lock down
Pakistan 7.2% (2.4%)
Bangladesh 16.8% (1.6%)
India 6.9% (9.7%)
adding country from older post
Australia 0.3% (38.4%)
Japan 4.1% (2.6%)
New Zealand 0.2% (24.9%)
Singapore 1.3% (75.8%)
South Korea 1.1% (5.8%)
Taiwan 0.6% (0.5%)
Vietnam 0.1% (1.4%)
for comparison
USA 7% (56.1%)
Italy 7.1% (34.7%)
Germany 3.5% (33.2%)
Netherlands 12.8% (22.7%)
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TheMadPenguin
Senior Airman
Q to board mods: Is this politics, or humor? I can't tell.
It's okay, just a bit of fun
- Thread starter
- #57
Italy report, 29th November, weekly changes
cases 1,585,178, +176,310, deaths 54,904 +5,081, recovered 734,503, +181,405, active cases 795,771, -10,176*, tests 21,814,575, +1,425,599, people tested 12,922,382, +696,532
* 1st week go down in the 2nd wave
fatality rate 3.5% (=)
mortality rate 910 per million (+84)
test rate 361.7 per thousand (+23.7)
positive rate 12.3% (+0.8)
test rate this week 23,635 per million (-1,403)
positive rate this week 25.3% (-3.1)
new case rate this week 2,923 per million (-896)
my town is to 69 total cases, a 4th death
cases 1,585,178, +176,310, deaths 54,904 +5,081, recovered 734,503, +181,405, active cases 795,771, -10,176*, tests 21,814,575, +1,425,599, people tested 12,922,382, +696,532
* 1st week go down in the 2nd wave
fatality rate 3.5% (=)
mortality rate 910 per million (+84)
test rate 361.7 per thousand (+23.7)
positive rate 12.3% (+0.8)
test rate this week 23,635 per million (-1,403)
positive rate this week 25.3% (-3.1)
new case rate this week 2,923 per million (-896)
my town is to 69 total cases, a 4th death
buffnut453
Captain
T'was a month before Christmas
And all through the town,
People wore masks,
That covered their frown.
The frown had begun
Way back in the Spring,
When a global pandemic
Changed everything.
They called it corona,
But unlike the beer,
It didn't bring good times,
It didn't bring cheer.
Contagious and deadly,
This virus spread fast,
Like a wildfire that starts
When fuelled by gas.
Airplanes were grounded,
Travel was banned.
Borders were closed
Across air, sea and land.
As the world entered lockdown
To flatten the curve,
The economy halted,
And folks lost their nerve.
From March to July
We rode the first wave,
People stayed home,
They tried to behave.
When summer emerged
The lockdown was lifted.
But away from caution,
Many folks drifted.
Now it's November
And cases are spiking,
Wave two has arrived,
Much to our disliking.
Frontline workers,
Doctors and nurses,
Try to save people,
From riding in hearses.
This virus is awful,
This COVID-19.
There isn't a cure.
There is no vaccine.
It's true that this year
Has had sadness a plenty,
We'll never forget
The year 2020.
And just 'round the corner -
The holiday season,
But why be merry?
Is there even one reason?
To decorate the house
And put up the tree,
When no one will see it,
No-one but me.
But outside my window
The snow gently falls,
And I think to myself,
Let's deck the halls!
So, I gather the ribbon,
The garland and bows,
As I play those old carols,
My happiness grows.
Christmas ain't cancelled
And neither is hope.
If we lean on each other,
I know we can cope.
And all through the town,
People wore masks,
That covered their frown.
The frown had begun
Way back in the Spring,
When a global pandemic
Changed everything.
They called it corona,
But unlike the beer,
It didn't bring good times,
It didn't bring cheer.
Contagious and deadly,
This virus spread fast,
Like a wildfire that starts
When fuelled by gas.
Airplanes were grounded,
Travel was banned.
Borders were closed
Across air, sea and land.
As the world entered lockdown
To flatten the curve,
The economy halted,
And folks lost their nerve.
From March to July
We rode the first wave,
People stayed home,
They tried to behave.
When summer emerged
The lockdown was lifted.
But away from caution,
Many folks drifted.
Now it's November
And cases are spiking,
Wave two has arrived,
Much to our disliking.
Frontline workers,
Doctors and nurses,
Try to save people,
From riding in hearses.
This virus is awful,
This COVID-19.
There isn't a cure.
There is no vaccine.
It's true that this year
Has had sadness a plenty,
We'll never forget
The year 2020.
And just 'round the corner -
The holiday season,
But why be merry?
Is there even one reason?
To decorate the house
And put up the tree,
When no one will see it,
No-one but me.
But outside my window
The snow gently falls,
And I think to myself,
Let's deck the halls!
So, I gather the ribbon,
The garland and bows,
As I play those old carols,
My happiness grows.
Christmas ain't cancelled
And neither is hope.
If we lean on each other,
I know we can cope.
- Thread starter
- #59
Italy report, 6th December, weekly changes
cases 1,728,878, +143,700, deaths 60,078 +5,174, recovered 913,494, +178,991, active cases 755,306, -40,465, tests 23,125,664, +1,311,089, people tested 13,510,154, +587,772
fatality rate 3.5% (=)
mortality rate 996 per million (+86)
test rate 383.4 per thousand (+21.7)
positive rate 12.8% (+0.5)
test rate this week 21,737 per million (-1,898)
positive rate this week 24.4% (-0.9)
new case rate this week 2,382 per million (-541)
in my town of the 69 total cases, 4 are active
cases 1,728,878, +143,700, deaths 60,078 +5,174, recovered 913,494, +178,991, active cases 755,306, -40,465, tests 23,125,664, +1,311,089, people tested 13,510,154, +587,772
fatality rate 3.5% (=)
mortality rate 996 per million (+86)
test rate 383.4 per thousand (+21.7)
positive rate 12.8% (+0.5)
test rate this week 21,737 per million (-1,898)
positive rate this week 24.4% (-0.9)
new case rate this week 2,382 per million (-541)
in my town of the 69 total cases, 4 are active
ThomasP
Senior Master Sergeant
Minnesota report, December 7
total cases 356,152(+5,296), total recovered 314,138, total hospitalized 18,358/4,015(1,205/362)*, total deaths 4,005(+21), total tests 4,623,492**/***(+63,360)
fatality rate 1.1%
mortality rate 702.6 per million
test rate 811.1 per thousand
positive rate 7.7%***
*The current cases hospitalized and in ICU.
**This number is the total number of tests that have been processed.
***The actual total number of individuals that have received 1 or more tests is 2,669,121, so the actual per capita positivity rate is 13.3%.
Addition to the Minnesota report.
Minnesota as a whole, is currently operating at 88% of hospital capacity. In detail, 30% of Minnesota hospitals with ICUs are maxed out or overloaded, and 25% of Minnesota hospitals are at/or over maximum non-ICU capacity. Part of this is due to the beginning of the winter flu season, with the more serious flu cases piling on top of the more serious COVID-19 cases.
Minnesotans continue to travel over the border to go to bars and restaurants. This last weekend there were so many Minnesotans in the border town of Hudson, Wisconsin that the bars and downtown area were crowded during and after bar rush. Wisconsin has now complained to Minnesota that the people crossing the border are overloading the local police departments - due primarily to drunk driving, drunk&disorderly, and simple assault crimes.
total cases 356,152(+5,296), total recovered 314,138, total hospitalized 18,358/4,015(1,205/362)*, total deaths 4,005(+21), total tests 4,623,492**/***(+63,360)
fatality rate 1.1%
mortality rate 702.6 per million
test rate 811.1 per thousand
positive rate 7.7%***
*The current cases hospitalized and in ICU.
**This number is the total number of tests that have been processed.
***The actual total number of individuals that have received 1 or more tests is 2,669,121, so the actual per capita positivity rate is 13.3%.
Addition to the Minnesota report.
Minnesota as a whole, is currently operating at 88% of hospital capacity. In detail, 30% of Minnesota hospitals with ICUs are maxed out or overloaded, and 25% of Minnesota hospitals are at/or over maximum non-ICU capacity. Part of this is due to the beginning of the winter flu season, with the more serious flu cases piling on top of the more serious COVID-19 cases.
Minnesotans continue to travel over the border to go to bars and restaurants. This last weekend there were so many Minnesotans in the border town of Hudson, Wisconsin that the bars and downtown area were crowded during and after bar rush. Wisconsin has now complained to Minnesota that the people crossing the border are overloading the local police departments - due primarily to drunk driving, drunk&disorderly, and simple assault crimes.
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