This how I see things panning out.
1) The Japanese attack Pearl Harbor as planned, with a US and britiah declaration of war the next day.
Syscom, why would the Japanese attack the USA in '41?
I think the major divergence of opinion is what happens with Japan. If the USA is strictly neutral, then in my opinion Japan wouldn't attack as they wouldn't have been forced into a corner re oil and scrap metal which the USA embargoed. As a result, the British wouldn't have had any losses.
Japan may have been party to agreements with Germany and Italy but they didn't declare war on Britain when Germany did, or when the Italians did. The Japanese only declared war on the British, when they attacked the USA. There was no reason for Japan to attack Britain, their main preocupation was consolidating their grip on China.
Freebird said:
About Japan, Glider is exactly correct, Japan's LAST option was for war with USA in 1942, they wanted to finish China first, at least 12 - 18 months work, their second priority was the Soviet far east. I have an excellent book "70 days to Singapore", by Stanley Falk USAF historian. He quotes Japanese sources on the Imperial conference of July 1941 deciding that because of the crippling sanctions, war with US UK was the only option. However, they were prepared to call off the attacks as late as Nov 1941, if agreement could be reached with the Dutch. (who because of US pressure refused to sell oil to Japan)
Syscom said:
2) Germany refuses to declare war on the US, with the US not wanting to declare war untill Germany does it first. Either way, neither country trusts each other and a semi-beligerent status is maintained.
3) The US declares the Western Atlantic is declared a "German" free zone and the USN and USAAF given authorization to sink without warning any U-boats.
4) US shipping in the South Atlantic is told to have their running lights on and any sub attack would be considered a hostile attack.
1942:
In the Pacific, nothing will change. The US needs to build bases throughout the region before any buildup or offensive action begins. Plus some capital ships will still be needed in the Atlantic to guard against the German BB's from sortie into the Western Atlantic.
In Africa, the Brits still win because of the logistics issues the Germans had.
1943:
With more material available for the Pacific, the US and ANZACians begin to really kick ass in the 2nd part of the year. But the central pacific offensive still wont occur untill late in the year simply because the USN had to wait untill the fleet carriers were there and ready to fight.
In the Med, I would venture to say the Commonwealth could invade Sicily sometime after the middle of the year. But any invasion of Italy itself would not happen due to a lack of shipping and air assetts. I would contemplate them invading Corsica and Sardinia instead, thus securing the Med.
Remember that because of the loss of Italy's colonies (E. Africa, Libya) Musso's government was overthrown when the British US landed in Sicily. Marshal Badoglio immediatly opened (secret) negotiations with the British.
1944: With no credible threat from the Commonwealth, the Germans redeploy their divisions and LW units to the east and could successfully limit the impact of Russian offensives.
No credible threat? The Germans maintained over 35 divisions in W Europe to prevent an Allied landing, and about the same in southern Europe, because the Italians were no longer assisting the Germans by garrisoning Italy, Sardinia, Greece the Balkans. Remember thet WE KNOW how many divisions the British had, but Hitler over-estimated it by 12-15 throughout the war, because he did not have the intelligence advantage that the Allies had.
Do you really think the Germans could turn things around after Stalingrad Kursk? Even supposing they could transfer 20 - 25 divisions (mainly infantry) to the east? Remember that they still have an extreme shortage of oil resources because of the British blockade.
The commmonwealths main problem is that without US involvement in the war, they have severe manpower shortages and not enough industrial capacity for this year or the next.
[Ok, about this "manpower shortage". The commonwealth had under-utilised troops up until 1944. The Canadian corps never went into combat until mid '43. Also in 1943 the Canadian 6 division was sent to garrison Kiska (that would be part of the USA) The Commonwealth would not need to send a dozen or so divisions + air naval forces to fight the Japanese in N. Guinea, Burma, Malaya etc.
Remember this:
Britain the Dominions (67.5 million) are almost the same population as Greater Germany, 71 million. (not counting non-Germans) (UK 46 million, Canada 11, Australia 7, NZ 1.5, S. Africa 2) The Industrial capability of the UK/Commonwealth was about the same as Germany, but the oil/resource situation of Germany was far worse. So any "manpower shortage" would affect Germany too.
Germany also had Italy, Rumania Finland as allies, plus production from France Czech factories. Do you want to compare that to Russian manpower production in 1943 - 1944? I havn't even included the British colonies, with manpower of 100's of millions (India also contributed many divisions to the war effort)
Syscom said:
The German tank forces are 300% better than the allied, so the commonwealth needs to find away to quadruple its production.
Do you have any basis for 300% better? Do you have any loss figures for tanks in the desert?
Agreed, I would rather be in a Panzer IV than a Crusader (unless the Panzer is out of gas....) Remember that the 8th army beat Rommel in Oct 1942 WITHOUT any US troops. (Yes I know, we did get some US tanks, but we had over 800 Canadian tanks sitting in Canada UK, I'd rather have a Ram II than a Gen Grant)
Syscom said:
Same with aircraft production....tens of thousands of aircraft of all types will be needed and no matter how productive Canada is, they do not have the ability to build that many.
In WWII the German aircraft production never equaled the Commonwealth, except in 1944. UK aircraft built: '39 - 7,940 '40 - 15,000, '41 - 20,000, '42 - 23,600, '43 - 26,200, '44 - 26,400. Germany built 400 more aircraft than the UK in 1939, 4,000 less in 1940, 7,000 less in 1941, 8,000 less in 1942, 1,500 less in 1943.
In 1944 Germany finally out built the UK 40,500 to 26,400, but in this year the Russians built 40,300.
So in every year from 1939 - 1943 the Allies (NOT including USA) built 2 or 3 times many aircraft as Germany, except in 1944 when they could only manage to out-build Germany 1.8 to 1
Note: Total Canadian WWII production as mentioned by Hunter: 16,000. The Italians built: 11,500
Aircraft production tables:
WW2 Aircraft Production Numbers
Syscom said:
1945: Russia and Germany have taken so many losses that they agree to a defacto cease fire 'and lick their wounds".
The Soviets would never stop to let Germany re-build, they would keep attacking until they win (or were conquered)
Still the commonwealth cant plan for an invasion for this year due to the increase in effectiveness of the LW due to jets,
The He 262 first went into action against the Allies in Aug 1944, one month after the July introduction of the Gloster Meteor
improved tanks and AFV's and the inability for the commonwealth to build enough of whats needed.
In WWII Germany built 47,000 tanks, the UK Canada built 34,000 and USSR built 105,000. If The USA hadn't been suppling so many tanks Canada's program would not have been cancelled, we had the capacity to build at least 3 - 4 times what we did.
1946: Who knows.
Hunter, no matter how you "spin" how much Canada produced in the war.... it still comes down to the fact they you are small country with limited manpower and infastructure. Its a fact Canada built plenty of convoy escorts, but how are you going to build the vast armada of landing craft and transports needed to successfully invade the contient.
OK, I have to say that I don't think the UK/Commonwealth, as a Naval power, could invade France/Germany without the USA, unless the Russians have already defeated most of the German army.
on a scale approaching the Normandy operation. Same question about the tanks and AFV's... same with the 10's fo thousands of multi engined bombers. Building a few thousand from a single plant hardly compares to the 2 dozen or so plants in the US.
As I already posted:
Freebird said:
To succeed in this scenario the British need to do 5 things.
1.) Maintain enough shipping keep losses from U-boats to a managable level.
2.) send enough aid to Russia in the first 12-15 months to keep them in the war and prevent Germany from defeating them
3.) Maintain enough air ground strength in W. Europe Africa to prevent the Germans from sending any more to the Eastern Front
4.) Defend her Empire territory.
5.) Keep up the pressure in N. Africa
Of course they would have to ramp up production as well.