Japan and the Soviet Union

[michaelmaltby]

Soren, you write: "Stalin was at his knees ready to beg for peace". What source does that come from? Pure fantasy. There was no loss of nerve by Stalin at Stalingrad. There was a loss of nerve in the early days after June 21, 1941 when (according to Krushev) Stalin said that Hitler was going to "beat our brains in" and disappeared for a couple of days. But when he returned it was for the duration.

The US may not be in the fighting - in your scenario - but rest assured that American industrialists are heavily into the war and if Japan and Germany don't want to face America they are "respecting" American neutrality (much the way Sweden's was respected despite the iron ore being supplied to Germany).

Soren - in your scenario has Britain fallen to Germany? Has Australia fallen to Japan? Has Egypt and North Africa fallen to Germany?

I ask these questions because I reject the idea of German invinsibility. By 1941 (before Moscow) it had been demonstrated that both Germany and Japan could be defeated. Germany couldn't gain air superiority against an equal - only inferiors. And Japan could be whipped by the Soviets.

Soren - lots of enthusiasm but - I'm afraid your coalition has leadership problems and is dillusional. Next you will claim that Napoleon almost conquered Russia in 1812.

MM

 

[Butters]

The idea that the IJA would be able to field a 3 million man force against the USSR is preposterous. Where would they get these men, and the logistical capability to supply them in the vast space of the USSR? They still had to control and garrison Manchuko and occupied China. They still needed to garrison and hold the European colonies that were the source of their oil (You can't fuel a war machine with the oilfields you MIGHT capture). And they still needed to maintain a sizeable reserve in the event that the US entered the war.

As for the IJN and the mighty Zero, they also still needed to man their fleets and island bases. And their pilot manpower was not only quite small, but their training system prevented them from turning out large numbers of qualified combat pilots. It would have been an IJAAF fighting the Soviet AF, not the IJN. Furthermore, Japan lacked the industrial capability to churn out the necessary long-range bombers and transports necessary to inflict serious damge on the Russian a/c factories.

The Russians could always retreat, drawing the IJA further and further away from their supplies. So even if they could not crush them quickly, as Zhukov had, they would have squeezed the life out of them in the interior.

The Russians were not disunited Chinese.

 

[JoeB]

The Japanese seriously considered attacking the USSR instead of the Western Allies, in 1941. This was the IJA's preferred plan. The US/British/Dutch oil embargo of July 1941 tipped the scales toward attacking them.

The Nomonhan War is not a good yardstick for measuring the possibilities of Japan v USSR for a couple ofl reasons. First the IJA contingent in Manchuria was enlarged greatly from 1939 to 1941, whereas the best Soviet forces were drawn west. The Kwantung Army outnumbered Soviet Far East forces by 1941, compared to heavy numerical inferiority (even besides stuff like tanks) in the latter stages of the Nomonhan campaign. Second, Nomonhan was fought on treeless grasslands on the western border of Manchuria, it was a border dispute between Japan's puppet state Manchukuo and Soviet satellite Mongolia. An all out attack on the USSR would have focused initially on the eastern side of Manchuria, to capture Soviet Maritime Province. That would have been over mainly forested terrain, where Soviet qualitative superiority in armor would have been less important.

So Japan's forces in Manchuria were not 'no hopers' v the Soviets in 1941. The issue would have been what could have been achieved *beyond* cutting off (the railway to) and conquering the Soviet Maritime Province, which the Japanese could probably have achieved. After that though, the Soviet Union looked like an island in the East and bigger island in the West with thin causeway of the Trans-Siberian Railway connecting the two, no complete roads connect the two, even today. In 1904-1905 the Japanese won every battle in Manchuria, but didn't have the resources, financial as well as manpower, to think about pushing west along the railway all the way to European Russia. The only big difference in 1941 would be the possibility of the USSR collapsing from the morale strain of another enemy at its back, already under attack by Germany. If you really think the Germans never came close to defeating the Soviets, then a Japanese attack wouldn't have gained anything in the long run. If you think the Germans might have come close (to crushing Soviet *morale*) then a Japanese attack might have pushed them over the edge. It really depends a lot on what impact it has on the Russo-German conflict, especially morale impact. And the Japanese plans were not coordinated diplomatically with the Germans. They also would have been purely speculating as to what the Germans were willing to give them if the joint war resulted in Soviet defeat.

So possibly fruitful but very risky. Then again, attacking the Western Allies was very risky too, as is obvious in hindsight.

Joe

 

[Colin1]

It would have been an IJAAF fighting the Soviet AF, not the IJN.

Furthermore, Japan lacked the industrial capability to churn out the necessary long-range bombers and transports necessary to inflict serious damge on the Russian a/c factories

What Soviet Airforce would this have been? The first few days of Barbarossa saw the Soviets being dealt an absolute hay-maker, most of their aircraft being caught on the ground.
With no US involvement, who's supplying them with Lend-Lease aircraft? I doubt the UK would be too willing to let go of much with no US industrial powerhouse behind them and assuming the P-39s were forwarded on according to the real time-line, I seriously doubt it would be sufficient to stem the tide.
The Soviets were hurting for aircraft in the first six months, with nothing to replace their hideous losses, the Germans could fully exploit their mastery of Soviet airspace, ground-attack, strategic bombing, reconnaissance and anti-shipping - near totally unopposed; the Soviets would be paralysed.

Moving assets from east to west and the vast terrain poses the same problems for the Soviets as it does for the invaders, they've still got to get it from A to B, with Axis aircraft marauding more or less at will, good luck with that.

What they do manage to bring west, thins out what the Japanese have to deal with.

As for Japan's lack of long-range bombers, I think this could have and would have been resolved by two allies working to the same, direct end; the Germans would have loaned aircraft and even if they hadn't it's conceivable that the flat expanses present in Manchuria would have provided a succession of rudimentary airstrip-hops into range of Soviet manufacture.

 

[imalko]

...The first few days of Barbarossa saw the Soviets being dealt an absolute hay-maker, most of their aircraft being caught on the ground.

True, but these were mainly obsolete types useless against Luftwaffe anyway. Aircraft were destroyed on the ground but pilot survived to fight another day flying in new modern types.

With no US involvement, who's supplying them with Lend-Lease aircraft?

And Soviets didn't have aircraft of their own? In period 1939-1945 Soviet war industry produced total number of 149.500 aircraft of all types while in period 1941-1945 Western Allies delivered to the USSR total number of 17.448 of all types.

...the Germans could fully exploit their mastery of Soviet airspace, ground-attack, strategic bombing, reconnaissance and anti-shipping - near totally unopposed; the Soviets would be paralysed.

Germans did enjoyed full mastery of Soviet airspace for a while in 1941 and they exploit it to best of their abilities and yet Soviets were not paralyzed, but furthermore managed to relocate entire industries from western areas to the Urals.

Moving assets from east to west and the vast terrain poses the same problems for the Soviets as it does for the invaders, they've still got to get it from A to B, with Axis aircraft marauding more or less at will, good luck with that.

Seriously doubt that Axis bombers had sufficient range for "marauding at will" the Trans-Siberian Railway, the main link between east and west of the USSR.

 

[Glider]

Sorry Glider but you are terribly mistaken.

The IJN would be attacking just as-well as the IJA, and the Zeros would've swepped any resistance from the VVS aside with ease. There's also no doubt that a lot of Zeros would simply be given duty with the army airforce.

I do not believe that Zero's would have been made available. The IJN and IJAF didn't co-operate on anything, they didn't even share the same rifles, machine guns or 20mm cannons. Why on earth would they share aircraft, it would be a serious loss of face to the Air Force and nothing would allow that. There is also the point that in the Spring of 1942 not all IJN units had been equipped with the Zero and I am confident that the IJN would put them first.

The Japanese army also would not have to go through all of the USSR to have an effect. They simply needed to tie up the Soviets on a second front to take off pressure from the German's back. And seeing that the Soviets were already pushed to the limit by the Germans and could've been defeated by them alone had it not been for some stupid mistakes made by the German high command, then if the Japanese attacked in force in the east it would've quickly been all over for the Soviets.

If the Japanese are not applying pressure then they are not a threat. If they are applying pressure they are wide open.

Also please recognize that the reason that the Germans Japanese didn't share more technology in WW2 than they did was simply because of the fact that they didn't enter any land based operations together, heck not even any aerial ones. Had that happened the Germans would without a doubt have handed over a lot of technology to the Japanese. They did afterall ship information a very long way over regarding jet technology.

This is a major assumption with very little to back it up. The only technology that I can think off that was used by the Japanese was the DB601 which the Japanese didn't do well with and were better sticking to what they knew Radials, and the 20mm MG151 which was used on some versions of the Ki61. The Jet information was much too little, much too late and not used by the Japanese and a similar statement goes with the Me163.

In your replies you have not commented on the basic weakness of the structure of the Japanese Army units, the equipment they were issued with or the lack of transport. With these problems they stand no chance.

 

[renrich]

Wow, am I glad I started this discussion. Two factors to consider are: when the Japanese attack the British and Dutch, can FDR get enough support in Congress and among the American people to declare war on Japan and subsequently Germany? I don't think an issue is whether Japan can defeat the Soviets but whether the Japanese can cause the Soviets to divert enough men and equipment to that front so that the Germans can prevail on the other front. Another issue is that by February, 1942, Japan is threatening Australia. The Aussie government wanted to bring home all their troops from the front in North Africa to prevent an invasion of Australia. Instead US troops were rushed to Australia. Without the US in the war, those troops would have to have been brought back home and could they get them home with the IJN controlling the sea and with Japanese air bases in the Solomons and perhaps even Ceylon?

 

[Amsel]

I am actually reading a book right now called Rising Sun Victorious which covers alot of this subject. I guess I'll devote more time to it. I tend to read 3-4 books at a time.

 

[Colin1]

...I don't think an issue is whether Japan can defeat the Soviets but whether the Japanese can cause the Soviets to divert enough men and equipment to that front so that the Germans can prevail on the other front...

This factor is what largely underpins my argument
No US in the west means the Western front is secure in all but name - largely undiluted German field strength with which to hit the Soviet Union.
Japanese air and ground forces enter the USSR from the east and the IJN wreaking havoc with any supply attempts from the western allies (such as they are) - largely diluted Soviet field strength with which to counter the German offensive.
The Japanese do not need to defeat the Soviet Union, I suspect the Soviet commanders would know this but how to disregard the invasion from the east?

 

[renrich]

To add a little spice to the discussion, what if the Germans had treated the people in the occupied area of the Soviet Union humanely and the Japanese had done likewise in China. This scenario is starting to look scary.

 

[The Basket]

The main problem is why would the Germans want the Japs to attack the USSR?

It was going to be all over in 6 weeks. Split the winnings with some non master race types...fat chance.

And by the time it was going wrong, the Japs were doing there own play.

And in 1941, the Germans had no western front and were stronger in comparison to their Soviet foes and still lost. If they were not winning in 1941 then they were never going to win.

 

[Lucky13]

I think that an attack mounted by the IJN on the Russians and their Pacific fleet, like the one on Pearl Harbor, would have been more devastating for them than the USN.
The Russians didn't have anywhere near the same power on the oceans like the USN or RN. I think that IJN could operated relatively freely outside Vladivostok. What could the Russian Navy possibly have put up against the IJN and its carriers and battleships?
I think that that the Japanese could have, not easily but near enough, landed somewhere in Golden Horn Bay and with Korea and parts of China already under them....

 

[vikingBerserker]

I think the Soviets would have again traded space for time. Even while battling Germany, Russia kept sizable forces in their Eastern sections. Does that area have any natural resources that would have made it worthwhile for Japan?

 

[The Basket]

For sure...the Japs could have invaded territory but could they have marched onto Moscow...

Deal with the main threat and deal with Japan later. Trade land for time just like in the west.

oil oil oil...strategy is driven by strategic need. And having a Navy is no good on the Steppes.

 

[Amsel]

To add a little spice to the discussion, what if the Germans had treated the people in the occupied area of the Soviet Union humanely and the Japanese had done likewise in China. This scenario is starting to look scary.

If the Germans treated the Russians humanely then there could have been much more available manpower. The morale was not that great in the Red Army until the Soviets were winning. At Stalingrad much of the German Army was made up of Russians. There would always have been communist partisans in China and the Soviet Union, but in the USSR a counter-revolution could have been started if the people on the collectives were treated better then they were under the Stalinist goverment. Its hard to say.

 

[michaelmaltby]

Renrich - come on !! You can't add those kind of what ifs! How the Germans and Japanese treated those they considered inferior was part of what makes them ruthlessly effective. Might as well add: what if Stalin hadn't purged his officer corps in the late '30s.

MM

 

[proton45]

The Japanese Army had their hands tied by the Emperor in Mongolia...It is difficult to say the role that Japanese air superiority would have played in the ground battles had they maintained their successful momentum from early on. Early in the Mongolian campaigns the Japanese had established a very strong offensive in the "air" with several successful engagements with the Russians. However the Emperor was furious with the generals who had crossed the border into the Russian zone, and he forbade the airforce from further campaigns against the Soviet airfields...their for the Russians where able to replace their lost aeroplanes and the IJA airforce lost their initiative in the air...That little tid-bit didn't help on the ground.

 

[renrich]

Hitler had signed the alliance with Italy and Japan in 1940 so realistically they were his allies. He did make an effort after the defeat at Stalingrad to get Japan to help out with the Soviets. By then it was too late. michaelmaltby, I agree that it is unrealistic to expect the Nazis and Japanese to quit being racists. I was just speculating that if the Japanese and Germans had treated the people in the conquered territories humanely, they would have not needed nearly as many garrison troops. The Japanese actually planned to occupy Australia with, by 1950, two million Japanese there. They were not to be allowed to intermarry with Anglos. in order to keep the Japanese blood pure. It is interesting how big a role racism played in the war. Japan thought the American people were soft and indolent and would not be good fighters and would not support a long war. The Japanese thought the other Orientals in China, Burma, etc were inferior also. Once the war got started with Japan's initial success, the Japanese became over confident. The Americans initially thought the Japanese were a bunch of near sighted, buck toothed, midgets that would be incapable of fighting a modern war. After Pearl Harbor and the fighting in Malaya, the Philipines and the Dutch East Indies, the Americans were somewhat intimidated by the Japanese but Guadalcanal proved they could go one on one with them and the vicious brutality of the Japanese made the Americans feel the Japanese were sub human and needed to be exterminated. Likewise, Hitler believed that the Germans were the master race and especially the races in the Soviet Union were inferior and could not stand up to the Wehrmacht. He was overconfident and initially felt he needed no help in conquering Russia.

 

[Soren]

I do not believe that Zero's would have been made available. The IJN and IJAF didn't co-operate on anything, they didn't even share the same rifles, machine guns or 20mm cannons. Why on earth would they share aircraft, it would be a serious loss of face to the Air Force and nothing would allow that. There is also the point that in the Spring of 1942 not all IJN units had been equipped with the Zero and I am confident that the IJN would put them first.

So what you're saying is that matters of pride between each armed branch within the Japanese army would prevent them from cooperating in a war against the Soviets? That's really one of the most far fetched ideas I've heard in a long time.

If the Japanese emperor had decided to cooperate with the Germans and do he best to beat the Soviets in the east then you can be sure he'd pour both the IJN IJA in full force and have them cooperate. During the a lot of Zeros operated from land based airfields in the Pacific, and so if the war was to be raged in the Soviet Union then they'd simply be located there instead.

If the Japanese are not applying pressure then they are not a threat. If they are applying pressure they are wide open.

Wide open ? To what ? The US ? They weren't gonna hit the Japanese, if so they would've done waay before they invaded China.

This is a major assumption with very little to back it up. The only technology that I can think off that was used by the Japanese was the DB601 which the Japanese didn't do well with and were better sticking to what they knew Radials, and the 20mm MG151 which was used on some versions of the Ki61. The Jet information was much too little, much too late and not used by the Japanese and a similar statement goes with the Me163.

No it is not major assumption Glider, and you need to pick up you reading again cause the Japanese were given a lot of technology by the Germans near the end of the war. And most of it was hastily put to use, esp. the jet technology!

By wars end the Japanese were working on copies of the Me-262 Me-163 fighters.

In your replies you have not commented on the basic weakness of the structure of the Japanese Army units, the equipment they were issued with or the lack of transport. With these problems they stand no chance.

The equipment they were issued with in 1941 wasn't much worse than that of the Soviet army Glider. Remember that this is before the Soviets started recieving lend lease equipment.

 

[Soren]

The prime task of the Japanese invasion would be to hold up large portions of the Soviet armed forces, which they no doubt could have easily achieved. This would divert pressure away from the German eastern front. A further and even more important advantage was the lack of a war against the US, this meant loads more fuel, equipment and manpower available for the Germans in the east. And this alone would've been enough to ensure a Soviet defeat at Stalingrad and later Moscow, with the capture of the caucasus region being secured as-well, boosting the German drive through Russia significantly.

Meanwhile the Japanese needed but to advance slowly but steadily towards the west. They weren't gonna be in a hurry. All they needed to achieve was tying up the Soviet forces in the east. The IJAF would station masses of fighters and bombers in the east, following the advance of the troops and striking as far inside the Soviet Union as they could. The goal to destroy as much of the Soviet reserve and industry as possible. And seeing that the Germans weren't fighting the US in the west and had lads more manpower material at the ready in the east, they'd be having a much easier time defeating the Soviets even without the help of the Japanese, nessicating all of Russia's reserves to be diverted against the Germans, which in turn would leave the eastern border completely exposed to the Japanese invasion.