Japan and the Soviet Union

[parsifal]

Now for the second part of the Kwangtung Army (the army in Manchuria), this final part being the structure of their 20th Army

 

[Juha]

On Russian troops
Soviet troops from FE who fought against Finns were rather good in forest fighting, probably better than Germans. Finns had rather dim view on Germans forest fighting skills prewar and in 1941. But they had learned a lot by 1944, partly from Finns.
So even if Japanese did well against Commonwealt troops in SE Asia it doesn't mean that they would have done well against Soviets in FE.

Juha

 

[parsifal]

Now for the air units....please note that the Japanese OBs (air and ground) are as at 8-12-41. The Soviet OBs were as at 22-6-41. There were no major transfers of the Far Eastern Soviet forces until December, and for the air units, most of the forming uits were equipped with modern types

 

[Soren]

Attached to this post are some extracts from Dr Niehorsters OB site. It gives some idea of the force availability of the various Soviet Frontier commands

Here is also a link of tank strengths for every Soviet formation as of June 1941. I count about 1600 tanks for the Far Eastern Front alone

Soviet Tank Strengths, 22 June 1941

Parsifal, good info but, how much do you believe will stay there when the Germans start sweeping aside all resistance in the west ? 90% of the tanks available in the east will likely get dispatched directly to the western front within the first few weeks.

And then two weeks or so into the German invasion the Japanese would launch their own from the east. This would send the Soviet high command into panic, cause what forces do you divert to where, esp. when you aint got enough.

It aint gonna be a cake run for the Japanese in the east, but it they would progress slowly and securely, which was even more than needed. The Japanese would effectively be tying up so much Soviet manpower that the life would've been made a lot easier for the Germans in the west, which is the key role they had to play. And once Stalingrad, Moscow the Caucasus region was secured, the USSR would've been lost.

The whole process I can't see lasting more than 6 months. And after the this the situation would look very grim for the western allies, very very grim.

 

[Soren]

Soren
I really don't care what you think, I only sometimes correct your factual errors.
Last time, the whole BK 3.7 sideshow orginated from You and shows your limited knowledge on Japanese a/c. As did your Ki-41, B5M etc

Juha

Grow up will you plz?

Factual errors Don't throw rocks when you live in a glass house Juha.

 

[plan_D]

A war between the Soviet Union and Japan during their "prior engagements" would most likely result in the defeat of the Soviet Union by German hands. Some people have stated in the past that the Russian victory at Khalin-Gol led to their ultimate victory because it allowed a large diversion of forces from the Manchurian sector.

The Soviet Union, while in conflict with Germany, would not have had the fighting machines, men or logistics to defeat Japan in the Manchurian sector in under six months. However, Japan while fighting in the CBI (the main Army sector) would not have been able to divert significant forces to a Russian front that would achieve any resemblance of a breakthrough. The Japanese nuisance would force Russian attention though which would in turn ease pressure on the German assault; especially the push toward Moscow - which did have units rushed from Manchuria defending it.

The naval power of both nations would be irrelevant in the conflict, as Japan had a major foothold on the mainland already plus the Soviet Union had a pityful naval force in comparison.

 

[parsifal]

Parsifal, good info but, how much do you believe will stay there when the Germans start sweeping aside all resistance in the west ? 90% of the tanks available in the east will likely get dispatched directly to the western front within the first few weeks.

And then two weeks or so into the German invasion the Japanese would launch their own from the east. This would send the Soviet high command into panic, cause what forces do you divert to where, esp. when you aint got enough.

It aint gonna be a cake run for the Japanese in the east, but it they would progress slowly and securely, which was even more than needed. The Japanese would effectively be tying up so much Soviet manpower that the life would've been made a lot easier for the Germans in the west, which is the key role they had to play. And once Stalingrad, Moscow the Caucasus region was secured, the USSR would've been lost.

The whole process I can't see lasting more than 6 months. And after the this the situation would look very grim for the western allies, very very grim.

'
In fact none were transferred, until the middle of December. In fact, throughout the Summer, all of the tank units attached to the interior commands appear to have been strengthened somewhat.

Moreover the Soviets maintained a force structure in the Far East and TransBaikal of about 1 million men, even during the darkest days of 1941. They werent there to improve their suntans, they were there because the Soviets were unsure of the Japanese intentions. Once those intentions had become known, courtesy of Richard Sorge and his Spy rings, they then moved only the most experienced troops and about half the aircraft to the west, where they soundly defeated the germans in front of Moscow. This suggest a very high standard of training to me, both in the air and on the ground. The forces shipped out of the Far East were immedialtely replaced, but with only half trained conscripts.

You say that the Japanese will make steady progress, but I just cannot see this occurring. They are outnumbered something like 8:1 in tanks, about 10:1 in the air, and about 2:1 in ground formations. The Soviets appear to outnumber their artillery by about 4:1, moreover I think we can assume the Soviet artillery is heavier than that fielded by the Japanese. The terrain is terrible, and the approach routes they must follow heavily fortified.

How do you propose to overcome each of these deficiencies and problems??????

 

[Lucky13]

This is what was avaible in December onboard IJN carrier and the aircraft taking part in the attack on Pearl Harbor. All together these carriers carried 407 aircraft, 108 fighters and 299 divebomber/torpedbombers. Question is, if the Japanese would have attacked Vladivostock instead for Pearl Harbor, I'm sure that they knew that the USSR wasn't up to the standard of the US armed forces. swapping Pearl Harbor for Vladivostock, I think that they would have done more damaged to the Russians then they did to USN on Ford Island etc...
What would the Russians be able to throw against this? With about 60-100 or so KM between Japan and Vladivostok, maybe troop ships wouldn't be that far behind...

Akagi, 18 Zeros, 18 Vals, 27 Kates (Dec. 1941)
Kaga, 18 Zeros, 37 Vals, 37 Kates (Dec. 1941)
Sōryū, 18 Zeros, 18 Vals, 18 Kates (Dec. 1941)
Hiryū, 18 Zeros, 18 Vals, 18 Kates (Dec. 1941)
Shōkaku, 18 Zeros, 27 Vals, 27 Kates (Dec. 1941)
Zuikaku, 18 Zeros, 27 Vals, 27 Kates (Dec. 1941)

Swapping torpedoes for bombs....


Pearl Harbor Attack,

The first attack wave of 183 planes was launched north of Oahu, commanded by Captain Mitsuo Fuchida. Six planes failed to launch due to technical difficulties. It included:

1st Group
-(targets: battleships and aircraft carriers)
50 Nakajima B5N bombers armed with 800 kg (1760 lb) armor piercing bombs, organized in four sections
40 B5N bombers armed with Type 91 torpedoes, also in four sections

2nd Group
-(targets: Ford Island and Wheeler Field)
54 Aichi D3A dive bombers armed with 550 lb (249 kg) general purpose bombs.

3rd Group -(targets: aircraft at Ford Island, Hickam Field, Wheeler Field, Barber's Point, Kaneohe)
45 Mitsubishi A6M fighters for air control and strafing.

Second wave composition
The second wave consisted of 171 planes: 54 B5Ns, 81 D3As, and 36 A6Ms, commanded by Lieutenant-Commander Shigekazu Shimazaki. Four planes failed to launch because of technical difficulties. This wave and its targets comprised.

1st Group
— 54 B5Ns armed with 550 lb (249 kg) and 132 lb (60 kg) general purpose bombs
27 B5Ns — aircraft and hangars on Kaneohe, Ford Island, and Barbers Point
27 B5N — hangars and aircraft on Hickam Field.

2nd Group
-(targets: aircraft carriers and cruisers)
81 D3As armed with 550 lb (249 kg) general purpose bombs, in four sections.

3rd Group-(targets: aircraft at Ford Island, Hickham Field, Wheeler Field, Barber's Point, Kaneohe)
36 A6Ms for defense and strafing

 

[Soren]

'
In fact none were transferred, until the middle of December. In fact, throughout the Summer, all of the tank units attached to the interior commands appear to have been strengthened somewhat.

Moreover the Soviets maintained a force structure in the Far East and TransBaikal of about 1 million men, even during the darkest days of 1941. They werent there to improve their suntans, they were there because the Soviets were unsure of the Japanese intentions.

All true and well understood, but think of the relief put on the German army in the case that all of these troops were forced to stay in the east to fight the Japanese. It would prove an enormous relief for the German forces in the east. Also keep in mind that the Germans would actually have around 20% more manpower available than originally because of the absence of a US involvement, and this alone was enough to secure the Stalingrad, Moscow the Caucasus.

Furthermore how were the Soviets ever gonna cope without the huge amount of lend lease equipment they originally recieved??

Once those intentions had become known, courtesy of Richard Sorge and his Spy rings, they then moved only the most experienced troops and about half the aircraft to the west, where they soundly defeated the germans in front of Moscow. This suggest a very high standard of training to me, both in the air and on the ground. The forces shipped out of the Far East were immedialtely replaced, but with only half trained conscripts.

No I don't think it suggests that, I think what it shows is what happens when good tactics oppose stupid tactics. Hitler allowed his army to get outflanked by the Soviets, insisting on fighting inside Stalingrad and ordering no retreat to ever be made. It was one of Hitlers biggest blunders of the war, one even the most ill trained enemy could take good advantage of.

You say that the Japanese will make steady progress, but I just cannot see this occurring. They are outnumbered something like 8:1 in tanks, about 10:1 in the air, and about 2:1 in ground formations. The Soviets appear to outnumber their artillery by about 4:1, moreover I think we can assume the Soviet artillery is heavier than that fielded by the Japanese. The terrain is terrible, and the approach routes they must follow heavily fortified.

How do you propose to overcome each of these deficiencies and problems??????

Parsifal,

Please keep in mind that in the scenario suggested, where a total invasion of the USSR was planned, the Japanese were sure to have a lot more forces available than you list. The Navy would leave all its material at the disposal, which includes around 500 Zero's by July 41 if those in Japan are counted as-well (I'm looking at the number produced). All they had would be poured at the Soviets.

The Japanese had 2,250,000 trained soldiers and 4,500,000 reserves. That is 6,750,000 men under arms. If the Japanese invade with a force of ~3,000,000 then the Soviets are not only gonna have to leave their 1 million men in the east, they're gonna have to reinforce them if they are gonna be able to stop the Japanese.

The Japanese would still have atleast 2 million reserves ready for controlling there regions within China, which would've been given VERY low priority in this scenario btw.

We really don't get much out of looking at what forces Japan originally stationed in the east in July 41 as the plan was by then that of waging a war in the pacific, and thus all efforts were directed at achieving this. Had the plan been to invade the USSR there'd have been entirely different list of priorities and everything would've been affected; Training, Production, Troop garrisons etc etc...

If the Japanese were gonna try and fight the Soviets on land in Russia, then they'd pour everything they had at achieving this, not diverting any resources at preparing for a war in the Pacific against the US.

 

[parsifal]

This is what was avaible in December onboard IJN carrier and the aircraft taking part in the attack on Pearl Harbor. All together these carriers carried 407 aircraft, 108 fighters and 299 divebomber/torpedbombers. Question is, if the Japanese would have attacked Vladivostock instead for Pearl Harbor, I'm sure that they knew that the USSR wasn't up to the standard of the US armed forces. swapping Pearl Harbor for Vladivostock, I think that they would have done more damaged to the Russians then they did to USN on Ford Island etc...
What would the Russians be able to throw against this? With about 60-100 or so KM between Japan and Vladivostok, maybe troop ships wouldn't be that far behind...

Akagi, 18 Zeros, 18 Vals, 27 Kates (Dec. 1941)
Kaga, 18 Zeros, 37 Vals, 37 Kates (Dec. 1941)
Sōryū, 18 Zeros, 18 Vals, 18 Kates (Dec. 1941)
Hiryū, 18 Zeros, 18 Vals, 18 Kates (Dec. 1941)
Shōkaku, 18 Zeros, 27 Vals, 27 Kates (Dec. 1941)
Zuikaku, 18 Zeros, 27 Vals, 27 Kates (Dec. 1941)


[
Lucky

If the Japanese attempted to attack the Russian base at Vladivostock, they would be very unlikely to undertake this attack with the element of surpise in their favour. This is because the Russians had a very effricient series of spy rings operating in Japan, which actually warned them of the German attack. Stalin ignored this threat, because he believed it to be a British plot to get him into the war, and because he just didnt believe the germans would attack him.

He harboured no such illusions about the Japanese, who had already launched several probing attacks along the border in 1939. Soviet forces were already engaging the Japanese (as so-called "volunteers") in Yenan province, so I do not believe the Soviets will be at all surprised by the Japanese air attack

The Japanese carriers will be under severe direct threat from the 120 submarines of the Soviet Pacific Fleet, and will need to battle their way through approximately 1400 locally based fighters, including at least 240 Laggs and Yaks, both of which have a higher top speed than the Zero and the pilots of which are destined to become the first guards air regiments of the VVS,

Now, all this is merely a prelude to what the IJN will have to face. Vladivostock is defended by a number of twelve inch turreted batteries, and numerous pillboxes and strongpoints along the water front. The harbour is heavily mined. The Germans when they attacked Sevastopol found they were unable to silence the batteries (which were similar to those at Vladivostock) until they brought up their super heavy artillery pieces (I think they were nicknamed "Karl" and "Dora"). The artillery and air bombardment needed to reduce the fortess of Sevastopol took over a month to complete, and even then the Soviets extracted a very heavy toll out of the advancing Germans and Rumanians. The two Soviet Rifle Divisions fighting at Sevastopol were attacked by an entire German Army (the 11th) which was so wounded it took months to recover. In Vladivostock there are 5 full Soviet armies deployed to defend the city supported by over 40 battalions of AA (thats something like 1500 guns)........

No other nation has ever successfully assaulted a fortified port by amphibious attack, so why is likley that the Japanese will succeed. The British atempted it at Dieppe, and got the Canadians slaughtered for their trouble. My estimate is that by abandoning every other ampibious assault in the Southern region, the Japanese might be able to attempt to land about three divisions, that is, the ones that manage to survive the minefilds, the subs and the 150 or so MTBs deployed to defend the port.

The simple question that begs here is this, if the Japanese could assault fortified ports by amphibious assault, why did they not do that at Singapore or Bataan, which at the time of the outbreak of war were far more lightly defended???? Or are we saying that the Japanese amphibious capabilities are superior to the allies in some way.

To get some idea of the efforts needed to take a defended position, have a look at the preparatory bombardment (air and sea) needed to take places like Okinawa or Iwo. And these places were not defended by "permanent" defenses in the same way as Vladivostock was

 

[Juha]

Some seems to have forgot that during the war SU had significant forces along its southern borders and in FE. So it was capable to sent 3 armies into Iran/Persia in late August 41 in sipite of the fact what was happening in the its Western areas. Also there were strong forces ready for the case that Turkey would choose to join the Axis and attack SU. Also substantia troops were in kazastan etc throughout the war. If someone thinks that SU concentrated all its forces, or even vast majority of them against Germany even in "gloomy summer" 1942, I recomended some reading on history of Red Army .

Juha

 

[Juha]

On Stalingrad
Hitler's decision to forbid the outbrake from Stalingrad was according the oppinion of his AF commander (Göring) and his best army commander (von Manstein), so he simply agreed with his top commanders

Juha

 

[Juha]

Soren
you still forget that Japan was fighting a major war in China, so much of its army was tied there. Idea that Japanese would give only very low priority to China is very stretched because they took the enermous risk to attack US just because they thought it unthinkable to give up their conquests there. And they would had left substantial forces ready for possible US intervention, which knowing FDR's attitude would have been only proper.

Juha

 

[Lucky13]

Just shows how little I know about this... Cheers Parsifal and Juha!

 

[imalko]

...Also keep in mind that the Germans would actually have around 20% more manpower available than originally because of the absence of a US involvement, and this alone was enough to secure the Stalingrad, Moscow the Caucasus.

Furthermore how were the Soviets ever gonna cope without the huge amount of lend lease equipment they originally recieved??

Disagree. US weren't involved in war in 1941 and their involvement in the war was directly felt by Germany only in late 1942 when Operation Torch took place. So in 1941 and much of 1942 presence or absence of US involvement had no effect on Germany's effort on Eastern front what so ever. Manpower available to Germany would be the same as it was in true time line.

Amounts of land lease equipment handed over to Soviet Union became huge only in 1943. Before that Allied help went to USSR in much smaller quantities. In September 1941 British sent what they could but this was more significant as morale buster then its actual value on the front. (Why do we always have to return to this issue is beyond me.) Look at the total numbers of aircraft for example. In 1939-1945 Soviet industry produced close to 150.000 aircraft of all types while total number of aircraft recieved under lend lease didn't exceed 20.000. Point is that number of aircraft delivered under land lease was valuable for sure but hardly decisive for events on Eastern front. I would venture to say that more valuable to the Soviets were deliveries of trucks then aircraft.

Please keep in mind that in the scenario suggested, where a total invasion of the USSR was planned, the Japanese were sure to have a lot more forces available than you list. The Navy would leave all its material at the disposal, which includes around 500 Zero's by July 41 if those in Japan are counted as-well (I'm looking at the number produced). All they had would be poured at the Soviets.

This is not scenario suggested. Original premise is that after their setbacks in 1941 Germans managed to persuade Japan to take part in 1942 summer offensive. (So they would have some six months for preparations.) Up until that point we fallow true time line. So no "total invasion" of USSR by Japan and Germany was planned in 1941.

If the Japanese were gonna try and fight the Soviets on land in Russia, then they'd pour everything they had at achieving this, not diverting any resources at preparing for a war in the Pacific against the US.

Again, according to original premise the Japanese did attacked British and Dutch in December 1941 but not US at Perl Harbor. So they needed to divert some of their forces to that theater in addition to their war effort in mainland China. Furthermore even if US are not involved in war there is continuous threat that they wouldn't just remain a bystander, so some IJN forces are needed to remain in reserve in case of any US intervention. (Which in my opinion would happen for sure one way or the other.)

PS
Great info you have provided there Parsifal.

 

[Soren]

If the Japanese helped Germany defeat the USSR then they'd be in a VERY good position to take over the entirety of China, with enough oil to make sure a war in the pacific wasn't needed. So if anything they had every reason to pour their best at the Soviets. Over 2 million reserves could secure the already conquered areas within China.

 

[Matt308]

Keep it civil, guys. Let's not ruin a good thread.

 

[Lucky13]

How good were these Russian Subs?

 

[Soren]

The IJN would take care of the Soviets subs, which weren't much good btw. The best they had was the Stalinet boats, but even they were outdated by 1941.

 

[parsifal]

I agree with Imalko, it wasnt the terms of refernce for this thread.....however, if we are going to assume that the Japanese are suddenly going to field a regular army bigger than that fielded by the Germans, should we not also consider similar expansions for the the allies, chines or Soviets. The sky is the limit once you start to depart from the known situation. Why couldnt the Chinese be equipped with surplus Russian equipment.....if we assume that then all of a sudden the allies have another 300 divisions to play with....why not assume that lend lease is diverted to the Pacific, in lieu of the US involvement, and field approximately another 30 divs and about 1500 aircraft. The possibilities are endless, and in the end quite silly, from either bias or perspective.

The only way this scenario can be objectively assessed is on the basis of the forces available. Japan did not have the plane or the pilots to fild 500 zeroes.....they didnt even have enough to field 300 and thats in December, not June.

The whole excercise becomes a bit ridiculous if we start introducing fanciful what ifs into the equation. Or if we do, it then becomes necessary to postulate logical quid pro quos for both sides