I'd guessed it was late war, and possibly a CO's machine, I'm sure the little blue/red flash under the cockpit has some significance too...
I've googled the nose art 'Winston Churchill' and come up with two possibles:
1. 349 Squadron. I'm basing this on seeing a wooden model of an a/c with the same codes, but in a totally different (and incorrect) camo scheme, captioned as an a/c from 349.
2. 127 Squadron. I came across a profile of a Spit XVI with 127 in April 1945, carrying the same nose art, but no kill marks, or nose badge, different codes (9N-F) and the serial TB900. Possible the same machine before the CO's codes were applied? The same site mentions TB900 was transferred to 349 Squadron, but doesn't say when
I'm tending toward 349 as Matchbox apparently released a 1/72 scale kit of the same a/c and described the markings as being 349 Squadron. If this is right, and judging by the kill markings, the pilot of D-GE was very busy between April, when the machine was with 127, and VE-Day, as he appears to have scored 6 air kills and a dozen ground kills in a few weeks!