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That's speculation, the only way to know for sure is if it was to happen. IMO against a Chinese threat, agree, against the Russians, considering what we've seen over Ukraine?
I actually consider both scenariosAll looks forward are speculation, so I really don't disagree with that statement.
But, I think we are saying two different things. I was talking about being involved in a peer-to-peer or near-pear conflict and how that would impact tactics, and you, I think, are discussing if peer or near-peer threats actually exist.
Agree to a point but again, we really don't know how effective those opponent technologies are - it seems we've overestimated the Russians based on what we've seen in the Ukraine. Again, the Chinese?I think it is very safe to say that attrition would be higher in a peer-peer conflict. I also think it safe to say the tactics and technologies we use to stiff arm opposition would be less successful when facing an opponent that has been developing technologies specifically aimed at negating those advantages. And you cannot talk about the first day of the fight the same way you will have to talk about the 30th day of the fight.
Just as an aside, and timely for this thread, fans of the Fighter Pilot Podcast will like Episode 149 in regards to this discussion.
T!
Underestimated or over-estimated?it seems we've underestimated the Russians based on what we've seen in the Ukraine.
Agree to a point but again, we really don't know how effective those opponent technologies are - it seems we've underestimated the Russians based on what we've seen in the Ukraine. Again, the Chinese?
Agree to a point but again, we really don't know how effective those opponent technologies are - it seems we've overestimated the Russians based on what we've seen in the Ukraine. Again, the Chinese?
That's the quagmire, but when you see photos of Russian jets that were shot down using obsolete Garmin GPS'....?Have we? Or have we seen the results of the Russians trying to play a constrained game and getting spanked because of it? Is it a case of everyone overestimating the Russians? Or did the Russians underestimate the Ukrainians?
AgreeHowever, I am fully capable of admitting that the Russians may have been overestimated...yet again. During the Cold War they were always painted as 9 feet tall and bullet proof, the big, bad, Bear. Yet every time we actually went head to head with their technology it came up lacking. The upper crust of their personnel were outstanding, but the average not so much. Their mathematicians world class, the basic technology of their systems very sound, and the actual application of those theories and technologies less good.
If I'm correct those body bags will be the opposition!However, to plan your actions and reactions assuming that is the case will, potentially, fill a lot of body bags.
Great assessment!The Chinese have shown a real capability, technologically, to respond quickly. To take an advanced technique or platform from concept to working model in the field far quicker than the US system can today. Cutting corners, risking personnel and hardware during development in a way the US no longer considers acceptable. Being much less risk-averse than the US. Outside the societal structure, from a technology acquisition standpoint, being ready to accept risks for great reward, I have to tell you they remind me of the US in the 50's. And that concerns me more than a little bit.
T!
$980.8 billion. BUT we buy $450.4 billion worth of Chinese goods. Hmmmm...How much U.S. debt is China holding?
Just food for thought: but if China did attack Taiwan and the West responded with sanctions, etc., it also opens the door for western manufacturers to reclaim the lion's share of the global manufacturing market.
Have we? Or have we seen the results of the Russians trying to play a constrained game and getting spanked because of it? Is it a case of everyone overestimating the Russians? Or did the Russians underestimate the Ukrainians?
The Chinese have shown a real capability, technologically, to respond quickly. To take an advanced technique or platform from concept to working model in the field far quicker than the US system can today. Cutting corners, risking personnel and hardware during development in a way the US no longer considers acceptable. Being much less risk-averse than the US. Outside the societal structure, from a technology acquisition standpoint, being ready to accept risks for great reward, I have to tell you they remind me of the US in the 50's. And that concerns me more than a little bit.