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Token
Senior Airman
All looks forward are speculation, so I really don't disagree with that statement.
But, I think we are saying two different things. I was talking about being involved in a peer-to-peer or near-pear conflict and how that would impact tactics, and you, I think, are discussing if peer or near-peer threats actually exist.
I think it is very safe to say that attrition would be higher in a peer-peer conflict. I also think it safe to say the tactics and technologies we use to stiff arm opposition would be less successful when facing an opponent that has been developing technologies specifically aimed at negating those advantages. And you cannot talk about the first day of the fight the same way you will have to talk about the 30th day of the fight.
Just as an aside, and timely for this thread, fans of the Fighter Pilot Podcast will like Episode 149 in regards to this discussion.
T!
FLYBOYJ
"THE GREAT GAZOO"
I actually consider both scenarios
Agree to a point but again, we really don't know how effective those opponent technologies are - it seems we've overestimated the Russians based on what we've seen in the Ukraine. Again, the Chinese?
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Underestimated or over-estimated?
buffnut453
Captain
Actually, Joe, I'd suggest we've overestimated Russian capabilities, or at least their ability to execute tactical and operational doctrine into warfighting abilities.
I'm sure China is watching with interest, and perhaps using their friendly relationship with Russia to secure additional insights into counters to western equipment.
FLYBOYJ
"THE GREAT GAZOO"
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
Is Xi's China as oligarchical as Russia? I'm thinking Xi runs a tighter ship. If China has been running real training, they've been shaking some of the bugs out of operations and equipment. They can't be worse. Their ships move around without guardian tugboats.
Token
Senior Airman
Have we? Or have we seen the results of the Russians trying to play a constrained game and getting spanked because of it? Is it a case of everyone overestimating the Russians? Or did the Russians underestimate the Ukrainians?
However, I am fully capable of admitting that the Russians may have been overestimated...yet again. During the Cold War they were always painted as 9 feet tall and bullet proof, the big, bad, Bear. Yet every time we actually went head to head with their technology it came up lacking. The upper crust of their personnel were outstanding, but the average not so much. Their mathematicians world class, the basic technology of their systems very sound, and the actual application of those theories and technologies less good.
However, to plan your actions and reactions assuming that is the case will, potentially, fill a lot of body bags.
The Chinese have shown a real capability, technologically, to respond quickly. To take an advanced technique or platform from concept to working model in the field far quicker than the US system can today. Cutting corners, risking personnel and hardware during development in a way the US no longer considers acceptable. Being much less risk-averse than the US. Outside the societal structure, from a technology acquisition standpoint, being ready to accept risks for great reward, I have to tell you they remind me of the US in the 50's. And that concerns me more than a little bit.
T!
FLYBOYJ
"THE GREAT GAZOO"
That's the quagmire, but when you see photos of Russian jets that were shot down using obsolete Garmin GPS'....?
Agree
If I'm correct those body bags will be the opposition!
Great assessment!
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
The Chinese are far more dangerous than the Russians. They not only have the brainpower, they have (obviously) more manpower; and in addition they have the industrial/technological base Russia could only wish for -- and most importantly they have the money to convert their aims into reality.
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SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
How much U.S. debt is China holding?
ThomasP
Senior Master Sergeant
Re "I have to tell you they remind me of the US in the 50's. And that concerns me more than a little bit."
FWIW I agree, with the exception that China's economy is intertwined with a very large part of the world. I think this causes China to view the rest of the world in a different manner than the US did in the 1950s - not totally but at least to a significant degree.
FWIW I agree, with the exception that China's economy is intertwined with a very large part of the world. I think this causes China to view the rest of the world in a different manner than the US did in the 1950s - not totally but at least to a significant degree.
FLYBOYJ
"THE GREAT GAZOO"
$980.8 billion. BUT we buy $450.4 billion worth of Chinese goods. Hmmmm...
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
Wouldn't be like shutting off Russia. If China did cash U.S. debt in, would they be to willing to take the hit from loss of sales? China can enforce acceptance of pain for a national goal. I'd prefer to be wrong. There was quite some whining here when fuel went up. It was, however, at my mechanics garage so there's that. I vaguely remember reading of some relocation of manufacturing out of China. I don't know how extensive or where it's being relocated to. I don't think Vietnam, Thailand or Taiwan might be as secure as we'd like long term.
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
Just food for thought: but if China did attack Taiwan and the West responded with sanctions, etc., it also opens the door for western manufacturers to reclaim the lion's share of the global manufacturing market.
The "most favored nation" move by a certain U.S. administration in the 90's (do NOT make this political) did a lot to encourage China's global expansion in manufacturing goods globally.
Before that, they were a bit player behind Taiwan and India.
The "most favored nation" move by a certain U.S. administration in the 90's (do NOT make this political) did a lot to encourage China's global expansion in manufacturing goods globally.
Before that, they were a bit player behind Taiwan and India.
And then everyone will bitch at how expensive prices are. There is a reason companies offshore in places like China. Americans (and the rest of the west) are not going to work for Chinese wages, and manufacturing companies are not going to make less profit. The costs of safety and wages correlates with price. We can't have our cake and eat it too,
Pull up a chair…
See them Russians? They are a victim of their own publicity and a system that doesn't tolerate failure.
Par example:
Red Flag or some such - if the Red Team pull a wildcard move and win, everyone does a high five, then everyone sits down and minutely examines the exercise for lessons to be learnt.
Now the Russian - the annual war-games, the SU-25s go brrrrr, the SU-34's go brrrr… the 'enemy' are all wiped out.
And for the finale - the big bombers fly over and and bomb the 'enemy airfield' - and in the last big exercise, missed the airfield completely.
But fear not, the script, for these exercises are very tightly scripted right down to how many bullets each soldier shall fire at a set time - said the airfield was destroyed in the script - so the exercise was declared Great Success! and everyone got medals and promotion.
I'm not so sure that Americans are more risk-averse - technologically-wise - compared to most other parts of the world, in Europe, Russia or even China. Could you cite an example of what you mean, regarding China?
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