3. Report of 30th August, 1944.
State Top Secret. Berlin
"MyFuehrer,
The last air attacks have again hit the most important chemical works
heavily. Thereby the three hydrogenation plants, Leuna, Bruex and Poelitz,
although only recently in commission again, have been brought to a complete
standstill for some weeks.
As the home defence against enemy air attacks promises no appreciably
greater ,results in September as against August, chemical (oil) production in
September must now be considerably lowered.
Nevertheless, no effort willbe spared to restore the hydrogenation plants so
that past production, at least, can be made possible in a short lime.
The effect of these new raids on the entire chemical industry are extraordinary
as severe shortages willoccur not only inliquid fuels but also in various other
important fields of chemistry.
(1) Methanol Production. The production of Methanol dropped, as a result of the air-attacks, from an estimated essential production of 34,000 tons in August to 8,750 tons, and will at the outside only attain this figure in September. The reserves of Methanol willonly be 9,000 tons at the end of August therefore heavy inroads willbe suffered in the following essential chemical fields in September if this reserve is completely used. In the powder and explosives sector, the estimated production of precious explosives (Hexogen and Trinitrotoluol) willdrop 30 per cent, inspite of the use of emergency measures and what is more, this notwithstanding that Methanol willbe reserved for powder and explosives and use of itgreatly reduced inother branches. Aparticularly severe inroad is to be expected in artificialresins and plastics, the production of which willdrop from 4,000 tons a month to 2,700 tons a month due to the shortage of raw materials. The production of melamine glue willreach about half the requirements,
while solid fuel for the Wehrmacht (for spirit stoves, &c.) willnow be completely counted out in September.
(2) Buna Production. By the failure of hydrogen from Leuna for Schkopau and the air raid damagein Ludwigshafen, Buna production sank from an estimated possible total of 13,000 tons to 5,400 tons in August. After the new attack on the 24th August on Leuna, this figure cannot be improved in any way inSeptember. The Buna reserves, which we were able to increase in the monthly production during the last months before the attacks, stood at 9,000 tons on the
Ist October so that October is secure as far as Buna is concerned. About one-third of the anticipated production for November willnot be sufficient.
(3) Nitrogen Production. Here also the new attack on Leuna has meant a considerable decrease in production, so that against an anticipated output of 85,000 tons for September, the highest possible figure willbe 45,000. This decrease inproduction willhit agriculture which at the moment holds only about 45 per cent, of its last year's allocation, which means that next year's harvest willsuffer unusual losses. Even worse are the effects in the field of liquid fuel as the hydrogenation plants and oil refineries have again been heavily hit in the last few days in
the Protectorate and round Hanover. [30934]
*
I. Carburettor Fuels. Before the Aprilattacks the carburettor fuel production in the Reich stood at 125,000 tons. In August, as a result of air attacks, at the most 60,000 tons were produced in August instead of the 84,000 tons estimated at the end of July.
Ifsimilar attacks continue the highest figures to be expected in September and October is 40,000 tons.
—
II. Diesel Fuels. Before the April attacks the diesel fuel production figure stood at
88,900 tons.
Due to air attacks only about 65,000 tons were produced inAugust as against 93,000 tons estimated at the end of July. Ifsimilar attacks continue the highest figure to be reckoned with for September and October is 60,000 tons.
lll.—Bottled Treibgas.
InAprilthe production of bottled gas stood at 37,600 tons (reckoned interms of gasoline.) Only about 3,000 tons were produced in August due to air attacks. Ifsimilar attacks continue a figure of 2,500-3,000 tons is the highest to be
reckoned withinSeptember and October.
IV.—Aviation Spirit.
While 175,000 tons of aviation spirit was produced in April,production fell to 12,000 tons, i.e., to two normal days' production inAugust due to the destruction of the aircraft fuel installations at Leuna, Poelitz and Bruex which had
only recently been restored to working order. For September production, because of the re-building measures, was still estimated at 101,000 tons even on the 15th August.
After the new attacks production willnot rise above 10-15,000 tons because of insufficient home defence.
With these results the enemy has hit the chemical industry so heavily that only by abnormal changes in the conditions is there any hope for the retention of the bases for powder iand explosives (Methanol), Buna (Methanol) and nitrogen for explosives and agriculture. At the same time the loss in carburettor and diesel fuels is so widespread that even the severest measures willnot be able to hinder encroachments on the mobility of the troops at the front.
The possibility of moving troops at the front willtherefore be so restricted that planned operations in October willno longer be able to take place. With this fuel situation offensive moves willbe impossible.
The flow necessary for the supply of the troops and the home country will therefore be paralyzed in the late autumn of this year, since substitute fuels, such as producer gas, are also inadequate to provide the essential help inall sectors.
There— remains only one possibility, and this onljy with a large \amount of luck :—:
—
Ifthe enemy
(1)
As was his former custom, begins his new attacks only when the plants, at present damaged, are again in commission, i.e., in about three weeks, when
(2)
The German fighter weapon at home can be so considerably strengthened inthis three-to four-week breathing space as to inflict heavier losses on the enemy and to hinder the compact carpet bombardments by splitting up the bomber formations.
(3)
In the coming autumn months, operations are restricted through bad weather conditions and both enemy and German air weapons are more restricted inoperation.
We shall do the troops a bad service bj sending pursuit planes from home
to the front and thereby allow the vitalmaterials for the front (powder, explosives
and fuel) to be hattered.
Ifit were possible to combat the attacks with—some good measure of success
inSeptember, thenitis feasible that there willbe
Onlya10per cent, production dropinpowder and explosives inOctober;
Arise inBuna from 5,000 tons inSeptember to 10,000 tons inOctober ;
A rise in nitrogen from 45,000 tons in September to 60,000 tons in
October;
A rise incarburettor fuel;-from 40,000 tons in September to 65,000 ton'fcj^ inOctober ; A rise in diesel fuel from 60,000 tons in September to 90,000 tons in October ; A rise in aircraft fuel from 10-15,000 tons inSeptember to 75,000 tons in October.
If,however, the homeland is protected only by Flak, then, despite the greatestconcentration, no substantial results from defence can be obtained as the attacks on Leuna, Bruex and Poelitz have proved. In this case the production level in October willremain the same as inSeptember but willnot exceed it.
be ready for this last great stake by the middle of
The Luftwaffe must
September at the latest. They must include their best strength, their flying instructors and their most effective pursuit planes in this undertaking. The most modern machines must be ready for this attempt at an item figure of not less than 1,200 items.
Ifthis course is taken it will,if successful, mean the beginning of a new air force or it willmean the end of the German air force.
Ifthe attacks on the chemical industry continue in the same strength and with the same precision in September as in August the output of the chemical industry willdrop stillfurther and the last stocks willbe consumed.
Thereby those materials which are necessary for the continuation of a modern war are lacking inthe most important spheres.
Hail, my Fuehrer,
Always yours,
SPEER."