Tensions Rising - N. Korea fires on Yeonpyeong

[Matt308]

My take? SK can't afford a war. Especially if it's protracted. They can't afford the refugees flooding the border and the humanitarian action they would have to undertake while the NK terrorized both SK and their own people.

I have been proven wrong before with WGermany and EGermany, but don't think this one will transpire so passive in nature. I hope I'm wrong. Again.

 

[evangilder]

I hope you're wrong on this too. Although I don't know that West and East Germany is truly comparable to North and South Korea because the north has been so isolated from the outside for so long.

 

[Shinpachi]

The Germans are rational but my neighbors are emotional.
Totally different like iron and wood.

 

[vikingBerserker]

Excellent point

 

[Njaco]

The Germans are rational but my neighbors are emotional.
Totally different like iron and wood.

 

[Matt308]

And you can't argue/negotiate from an emotional perspective. Good point!

 

[BombTaxi]

A military response will only serve to rachet up the emotions though. That is exactly what Pyongyang wants. Cutting off the publicity would shut Kim down in about 5 seconds - he needs the international media the same way he needs oxygen. I think rather than spouting hype about the coming war, the global media should just pipe down and leave this to SK to decide upon.

 

[GrauGeist]

Good point, Shinpachi

Perhaps if U.S. foreign policy was a little firmer than issuing "strong statements of condemnation" or a few sanctions here and there...

Maybe if China thought the U.S. would cut back a little on trade if NK wasn't reigned in a little would force them to "lean" on that idiot that North Koreans call a leader.

Then again, there always are other options:

 

[mikewint]

As I posted earlier, if the big boys just stay out of it...
That having been said I think this is pretty cool

 

[Matt308]

From MSN.com

Since the two Koreas exchanged hundreds of artillery rounds Tuesday in an incident that killed two South Korean marines and two civilians, Seoul and Pyongyang have been blaming each other for instigating the attack. South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young (who resigned Thursday after being criticized for what was called his poor response to the strike) says he suspects that two senior-level North Korean officers allegedly involved in the March sinking of the South's warship, Cheonan, were behind this week's attack. The North, on the other hand, claims that the South fired first.

Regardless of where the first shot came from, Pyongyang seems to have been setting the stage for this kind of attack as early as last year. For the past two years, the North Koreans have increasingly claimed that they were threatened by American and South Korean war games. So when the South conducted counter-proliferation drills with the United States last year, the North's Korean People's Army (KPA) declared that it will no longer be bound by the Korean Armistice Agreement and added that it "will not guarantee the legal status" of islands in disputed waters, including Yeonpyeong, the island that was shelled Tuesday. Translation: North Korea believes it is at liberty to attack should it feel provoked.

What's more, a relatively unnoticed North Korean military drill in August suggests that Tuesday's shelling may have been premeditated. On Aug. 9, the North fired about 100 artillery pieces toward South Korean waters. Later that day, North Korean drones were spotted hovering near Yeonpyeong. South Korean defense officials say they believe the North Koreans are using the drones to spy on the South's troops and weapons stationed on islands such as Yeonpyeong. That, along with the sequence of the exercise, suggests that the communist North has been gearing up for an attack on the island for some time.

The North Koreans are justifying this week's shelling as a "decisive self-defensive measure" in response to South Korean military exercises. It's a logic they've been using since the early 1990s; Pyongyang has used U.S. and South Korean war games as a pretext to step up its belligerency, citing the "hostile policies of the U.S. imperialists and the South Korean puppet regime."

This time, however, things could get worse. In the past, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il used the relatively moderate foreign ministry to keep the military in check so things don't spiral out of control. But recently, the military appears to be increasingly asserting itself on policy matters. In the past two years, military organs such as the Supreme Command of the KPA and the National Defense Commission have been issuing policy statements directed toward the outside world -- something that was mostly done by the foreign ministry in the past.

More frightening is that there are reasons to believe that the military has become so emboldened and powerful that Kim Jong-il may no longer be the absolute leader who calls the shots in Pyongyang. For one, the Dear Leader's physical and mental capacity has been declining—he reportedly suffered a stroke in 2008 and has grown frail since then. His third son and heir apparent, Kim Jong-un, lacks military credentials (although he recently and arbitrarily was elevated to the rank of general), and has to prove to the military that he has what it takes to be the next dictator-in-chief. That may explain why the Kims recently toured the base from which the shelling took place, to rubber-stamp the attack.

What's ironic is that part of the military's growing hubris could be of Kim Jong-il's own making. In the late 1990s, he initiated his Songun—or military-first—policy, in which the KPA was elevated to the highest position in the government. Under that policy, Kim Jong-il sprinkled his generals with Mercedes, missiles and nukes. Now, experts say the military has become so powerful that the Dear Leader no longer can rein in his generals. "The military-first policy has essentially reached its logical conclusion—that Kim Jong-il is no longer in a position to make the final policy decisions," says Kenneth Quinones, a former U.S. negotiator and Korea expert.

Meanwhile, the South Koreans will soon begin naval exercises in the Yellow Sea with the U.S. The exercises will involve the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, which the Obama administration dispatched as a way to signal its displeasure about the shelling. In the eyes of North Korea's generals, that may well constitute another excuse to get trigger-happy, again.

 

[timshatz]

Could be a one off. Doesn't seem to have been any further firing.

 

[vikingBerserker]

Very interesting post Matt, and somewhat scary.

 

[Shinpachi]

News from the Philippines -

Aquino: Govt ready to evacuate Pinoys in Korea
GMANews.TV - Friday, November 26

BAGUIO CITY — The government is prepared to evacuate some 50,000 Filipinos in South Korea should tensions in the Korean peninsula escalate, President Benigno Aquino III said Friday.

"I asked the DFA (Department of Foreign Affairs) to make sure that they do test runs kung saka-sakaling kelangang i-evacuate. I asked the DFA also to talk to the Japanese government, to their ambassador, dahil yung closest point ng evacuation is about 50 kilometers, sa Japan," Aquino said in an interview here.

..... more details

Rely on us, Pong!

 

[evangilder]

If the government of the Philippines is preparing for that, it isn't a real good sign. Tensions have been raised there before, but I don't recall this happening.

 

[BombTaxi]

I think the Phillipines response is an over-reaction, and one calculated to increase tensions rather than decrease them. There will be more shelling, as soon as the exercises with US carriers begin. There is no doubt about that in my mind. The exercises were designed to show NK that they were being watched and that the US can crush them at will. It may be necessary for the US and SK to put the money where the words are if these exercises go ahead...

 

[javlin]

I think BT its the old fable "plan for the worst and......." I do wonder how NK is going to respond in the past when the US is actually present it has just been sabre rattling.A little misreporting in this part from the article at least as far as intelligence suggest thus far..Kim Jong-il sprinkled his generals with Mercedes, missiles and nukes..I do not think that they have a capable missle delivery yet and a good detonation device.

 

[BombTaxi]

I just think that all of the media, political and military hype surrounding this situation is aimed at escalation, and deliberately so. There is a large caucus in the West in general, and the US in particular, which would welcome a second Korean War , either as a blow against the 'Axis of Evil' or against "Communism". The US has, even under Obama, continued to act in a highly provocative fashion, using military exercises to make overt displays of power to NK. Kim himself would no doubt love a war as it would confirm his fear that the capitalists are out to get him and give him a chance to try and obliterate the entire peninsula to provide his blaze of glory. SK, meantime, stands to lose massively from a war; once NK is gone, the US has no reason to be SK's friend anymore, and all the benefit that came from being a victim of Containment would dry up. ending SK's political and economic ascendancy in the region.

 

[javlin]

BT a war of any kind around this world that is new has the ability to economicly hurt all large and small countries alike.There are alliances taking place like between Russia and China just yesterday something I think 15 yrs ago would not of happened.I personally if China would look at there new pac much like how Germany treated Russia or maybe should Russia lookout?It's coming down to mineral rights for upcoming new economys while groups here in the US are not allowing development.

 

[Matt308]

NK doesn't want a war. That would be the end of the regime. Rather they want the NK populace focused upon the evil west so they won't focus upon their internal debacle. The sabre rattling has been occurring ever since the cease fire. Neither side wants war, but the fear is that NK may overstep that invisible and undefineable line between arrogant beligerency and unacceptable catalyst of war. SK doesn't want to assimilate all of those refugees that would flood across the border on their own dime with their ecomomy going gangbusters. If NK backs off, nothing is going to happen. If they shell civvies or shoot a fish into a US ship, then I think all hell is going to break loose.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

N. Korea seems to have fired off some more warning shots now.

China is also warning the US and S.Korea to not conduct any exercises near its waters.