Tensions Rising - N. Korea fires on Yeonpyeong

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NK keeps antagonising SK with these little 'incidents' with little or no retribution. No wonder each 'incident' sees an escalation in aggression. If war did breakout again how much military aid would the US be able to provide? Maybe NK has realised the US is busy with Iraq and Afghanistan etc. Could the US afford another war on a different front? Monetary-wise or public opinion-wise?
 
US has already moved most personnel south according to what I had heard months ago. US is in more of a strategic role as I understand it (intelligence, reconnaissance, command, control, strike). I have full confidence that SK can take care themselves. But with such huge civilian populations right along the border, it would not be pretty. Not by any stretch of the imagination.
 
One wonders if the world is sitting there on the first-row bleachers, watching as the NK's pick on the SK's, poking here, tweaking there, waiting to provoke a response. If the US jumps in (in any role, whether advisory or actively), this will give China a gift-wrapped excuse to leap in "in defense of their little Red brother", and then we've got another war on our hands. If SK can slap back, maybe throw an unexpected uppercut on their own, China would have no cause to come in, and the whole shebang is reduced to two kids squabbling in the sandbox. That's just my take on it....that, and 27 cents will get you....er....27 cents.
 
It was said back in the 50s and it is still true today, you cannot fight a conventional land war against the Chinese. and a 2nd Korean war would devastate more than just the economy
 
Certainly would. For surely the whole south side of the 38th parallel would become a refugee zone. That might be an acceptable "casualty of war" if it were relatively unpopulated, but NK knows that with such huge civilian/state productive zones such as Seoul, SK will NEVER enter into war without huge impetus. 80rnds of arty? Nope. It would have to be 8000 before they are going to initiate.
 
lets just hope they never cash in all the US bonds they're buying up.

Me? I have no illusions that I will die at my desk and the only indication that folks on this forum will get is my abrupt absence.
Click to expand...

At least give Me some credit for noting the TV getting slightly snowy and a warm, ill wind coming from the north! :)
 
Florence said:
USAF ready if needed...

USAF Ready to Deter N Korean Threat
Click to expand...

I suspect that this is for form's sake more than an indication that the US will go in the same way it did the last time. Obama is damned if he does, damned if he doesn't - tradition, history and national pride dictate that he must intervene, or lose what is left of his credibility. OTOH, the US is in dire danger of becoming overstretched, and cannot really afford another war which may turn out, like Iraq and Afghanistan, to have no definite end.

China will stay out of it. Like NK, they are Communist in name only, and they know that Kim is a crazy little guy who likes to run his country into the Stone Age and provoke the West whenever he can. They have absolutely squat to gain from supporting him. And which communist or ex-communist country is going to censure them? No-one would dare.

NK will implode in the very near future - probably when Kim dies and his son assumes power. There will be juntas vying for power and if the son is not quick and strong, he will be disposed of and the country will wipe itself out in civil war. Failing that, it's society will eventually regress so far in it's living standards that it becomes essentially unsustainable, and will collapse, probably in a very bloody fashion. That will do more harm to SK's economy, once the US has no reason to be friends with them, than Kim's antics ever could.
 
I have been watching this for a while, and I am curious on what SK will do. Just seems like they want to sit around and get poked at. But NK better be careful. SK could go off at a moments notice. I think of it like the videos you see when someone is poking a wild animal till the animal gets pissed off enough and attacks and totally F**$ that person up.


If NK wants to get frisky with the US, then we got something for em....
 
Almost certainly the Nks are doing this for a reason....usually to distract attention from something else not related. I notice on the news they have finally revealed some further information about their nuclear program. An inspector said on the news that have hundreds of centrifuges working to extract bomb grade plutonium.

The more dire their domestic situation, the more dangerous they become. If they have 10 or 20 nukes they are a frekin worry. They have an army of more than a million

We will know if China is snctioing this if the thing drags on for more than a few days. My best guess is the Chinese might be flexing their muscles after APEC......ther was a alot of talk about Burma which China did not like, and a lot of interventionary talk about the South China Sea....and that didnt impress them either. They did not appreciate the US or Russia gatecrashing their part too much....so its all gonna get intersting IMO.
 
NK's history is not to poke but to attack. That is when they really want to attack (thinking of June 1950). When they prod, as they did yesterday and back in March, they seem much more interested in achieving some goal short of war. Given the domestic handoff between father and son and the history of the last handoff (when the border heated up again), what is going on now is not suprising. As somebody noted in an earlier post, this is just more "poking the bear" to see what the reaction will be. But given the exchange yesterday and the exposure by the NK govt of the nuke manufacturing to the US Proff over the weekend, it seems this is not yet over.

What is very interesting is what Simpachi said. He is right across the Sea of Japan from Korea and there is no domestic tension from events between the two Koreas. Either history tells the Japanese not to worry about it, tempest in a teapot type of thing. Or everyone has grossly misjudge the NKs and this is the start of something.

I am more inclined to believe the tempest in a teapot perspective.
 
Thanks timshatz.

The Koreans are a great people because they survived for thousands years as an independent nation without making war against China, Japan, Mongolia and Russia.

Their strongest weapon is always bluff.
 
That's because this sort of thing has been going on since the Korean truce. arty rounds from both sides, border raids, etc. Business as usual at the 38th. If the big boys stay out of it it will probably just fizzel out (he said hopefully)
 
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