"Circumstantial evidence is a collection of facts that, when considered together, can be used to infer a conclusion about something unknown."
Sounds pretty much just like that.
For example the industry and the RLM actually managed to have every 4th Bf-109 be of the latest K-model when the war ended, an achievement considering the type flew for the first time in late '44.
Good management is not about the promotion of one or two of the variables. Its about the management of the whole. the bringing together of all resources relevant to a given system that will enable the maximum to be extracted from that system. Thats why it is necessary to bring together all the diverse pieces of the puzzle, to understand the whole. You can call it a collection of circumstantial evidence if you like, but if you know anythjing about good management, then you would understnad the principles of Total Quality Management, a little better than you do. Its not about just one part, its about all the parts and thats why its necessary to look at a diverse range of issues, so as to understand the whole
The allies won, not just because they were the greatest economic and manpower sources of the time. They won because they had the management structures in place to ensure that the available resources were delivered in the right balance, and at the right times to ensure victory. The allies, for example knew that at some point numbers were important. they knew that they needed a high aircraft availability, they knew that they needed the pilots to fly the vast number of machines they were producing.
At the beginning of 1944, the Germans still commanded something in the order of 25% of the worlds industrial potential. They commanded the most experienced and tactically well led ground and air forces in the world. yet they failed miserably in the battle with the allies. And as i said, it was not a given that the allies were always going to win the battle. though by 1944, victory was indeed slipping from Germany's grasp. But this was because the Germans had led the ball slip from their fingers, , whilst the Allies had never lost sight of their goals.
Lets compare the German efforts to those of the Allies just for th year 1944
Overy advises that in 1938, the Germans controlled 28% of the worlds industrial potential By 1944 the USS BS estimates that the German economy had been degraded in performance by about 10% so that it was down to 25% due to the effects of the war, including bombing (on the one hand they had suffered losses in manpower, but on the other they could utilize the resources of the occupied territories. The fact that they tended to misuse these resources was again a function of German mismanagement. Still the potential and contribution of the occupied territories cannot be denied. The Citroen motor company, for example, built over 40000 military vehicles for the wehrmacht, more than 10% of total vehicle production for the Germans). Taking into account the additions and subtractions of the war, the USS BS estimates that at the beginning of 1944, the Germans still commanded more than 25% of the worlds military industrial potential. With this approximate 25% capability, they were able, for their air force, able to achieve the following
25000 fighters
8500 pilots
a theoretical (ie, before bombing) oil production of 8.1 million tons of oil
Operational readiness was running at about 45% at the beginning of 1944, but by the end it was down to less than 30%, although by that stage, allied actions were having a big effect. Axis losses were running at about 6-8 times those suffered by the allies at the end of 1944. From January through to May 1944, the crucial period, they were running at approximately 4 losses for every allied loss
These results were more or less inevitable, however the question is whether or not the Germans could have done better or lasted longer than they did....
By comparison, just to look at the USAAF, with access to about 40% of the worlds industrial potential produced the following
38873 fighters
38500 pilots
approximately 80000000 tons of petroleum products
The UK , with about 12% of the worlds military potential, produced the following
10700 fighters
17900 pilots
Approximately 24000000 tons of petroleum products from her middle eastern refineries (Iraq and Saudi Arabia mostly).
Therefore, with 52% of the worlds economic power, compared to to Germany's 25%, the allies, if they had only been as efficient as the Germans, would have produced in very rough terms 2.1 times everything. In fact they produced
1.99 times the aircraft
6.5 times the pilots
12.8 times the fuel
Now, as you can see, the Germans achieved a proportional parity in terms of numbers produced (however, the allies were also spending a much larger proportion on strike aircraft) but the Germans got the proportions of oil fuel and pilots needed completely wrong. They also suffered abysmal sortie rates, even before the fuel famine from bombing took effect, which as Murray points out, was at least partly due to a low serviceability rate (which was due to shortages in spares parts, despite your denials)
So, in my opinion, the decisions made in 1942-3, concerning the proportion of resources for pilots, spare parts, and new airframes was completely misunderstood and misread by the Germans, and led to a force structure, whereby the number of airframes produced did not correlate to the available pilots, nor to the projected availability of fuel.
Why is it that the Allies were able to get the proportion so right, and the Germans so wrong. Most historians agree it was because the Allies planned for a long war from the start, and put far more resources into the "tail" of their force structure....more trainers, vast resources into pilot training. Very detailed analysis of combat tactics, and where the enemy was weakest (backed up by very good Signal intelligence). But above all, once the battle was properly joined, the Allies, from the very top down, adopted a proper management structure, exemplified by the joint Chiefs Of Staff, which was never emulated by the Germans. Every major decision, every war aim, every operation, every strategy was passed by the joint chiefs, to whom not even Winston, or Roosevelt could bypass, try as they might. There was nothing comparable to this organization in the German camp, and its poor strategic direction and management of its resources showed as a result of that lack of co-ordination.
On the other side of the channel the RAF struggled two times to get the latest Spitfire into widespread service. How often is it said that the introduction of the Mk.IX eliminated the advantage of the Fw-190, but a lot of squadrons still operated on outdated Mk.Vs for a long time after wards. The Mk.XIV mirrors this perfectly: First deliveries to combat units as early as fall 1943, but never really enough operational numbers to have any real impact as a fighter. And not to even mention the various subtypes of high-mid-low altitude engines and clipped-long-50cal-cannon-303cal wings throughout the Spitfires history: a logistical nightmare and directly attributable to procurement.
The RAF , even with this equipment that you are so disdainful of, was achieving shoot down rates of more than 4:1 by early 1944, and more than 6:1 by the end of the year, in fighter versus fighter engagements. The allies as a whole realized that more than anything, the air war was a war of numbers. They maintained some high quality units, and equipment, but at the end of the day, the allies realized that they needed the numbers more than anything. new technology is a "nice to have" advantage, but at the end of the day it s the number of aircraft that you can consistently put into the air that counts the most. The allies realized this. They also realized they needed to maintain quality, and did this as well. In the end, the numbers won. And this was not just a straight comparison of industrial potential, as the quick analysis done above hints at. It was more than that. It was because the strategic leadership of the western allies was so far superior to that which existed in Germany that mattered as well. target war
I say directly attributable because regarding Germany you like to ignore a few things:
Germany fought on three high intensity theatres, one of them being very dynamical in the sense switching back and forth between various airfields.
Thats interesting. You forget that the western allies were fighting a war on a truly global scale, far more so than the Germans. For the British, and the commonwealth, there were major fronts in the med, Burma, the SW pacific. There were massive material commitments to the Soviet Union to be met. In the Atlantic, the British were fighting a truly life and death struggle for survival, that soaked up a huge percentage of her resources.
For the US there were commitments also in the med, and SW PAC, as well as the central pacific. Even more so than the British, the US had lend lease commitments (which soaked up more than 17% of her productive capacity). The Germans had the priceless advantage of fighting from interior lines (which you perversely try to portray here as some kind of disadvantage, which shows a profound lack of understanding of military strategy) , which was something not available to the Allies. if the Germans could wrest the initiative for even a short while, they could have concentrated on one front, and caused an upset in the balance in that theatre. It was only through the most horrendous determination and dogged pressing home of the attacks that the allies were able to maintain the vital initiative. truly