Ad: This forum contains affiliate links to products on Amazon and eBay. More information in Terms and rules
Agreed. I expect that the Chinese strategy is:It would be pretty much impossible to invade Taiwan using amphibious forces without first destroying their Air Force (which China could do relatively easily) and Navy (also relatively easily) and eliminating most of their Ground Forces (which would be almost impossible without a very prolonged campaign similar to what Russia is doing in Ukraine - ie destroying the infrastructure and hoping to reduce the will to fight).
The above mentioned potential blockade breaking battle gets especially dicey even without factoring in nuclear weapons. The Chinese naval and air capability is building every day. Add to this mainland launched ballistic missiles and things won't be easy for the US and its allies. I'm not saying that things are a foregone conclusion but the 'maths' isn't one-sided by far.It is questionable whether the US/Japan/Australia Air and Naval Forces could prevent an effective blockade without destroying the majority of the Chinese Air and Naval Forces. The Chinese blue water Navy would be relatively easy to destroy, but the Coastal Forces would be a problem due to support from land-based Air (there is no part of Taiwan more than 250 miles from the Chinese coast). Destruction of the Chinese Air Forces would be problematic - it could be done but not without a full scale war between the US and China that involved the destruction of military targets at significant distances inshore.
Quite possibly though things are different now I believe. That said, not recognising Taiwan:This is my Taiwanese friend's recent opinion.
"The US is using Taiwan to take advantage in the ongoing US-China confrontation. This is OK but an issue for the Taiwanese people is that there is no intention and movement at the US side for the recognition of Taiwan as a state in the UN. Taiwan will be forgotten as ever again after the US-China shake hands."
Same as Galteiri needing to take the Falklands.Why the next five years will be 'very dangerous' for Xi Jinping
Only taking Taiwan will cement Xi's place as a remarkable person in China's history, while failure to do so could make him vulnerable to retaliation from his inner-party rivals, writes Bang Xiao.www.abc.net.au
I spent a week in Kaohsiung and a few days in Taiwan back in 2018. It was great to see Chinese people living with democracy and economic freedom.Aside from the lack of saber-rattling/increased felling of safety that moght ensue, the only significant advantage that Taiwan would gain if they united with China is a reduction in their Military budget. The basic standard of living in Taiwan is considered good, with the only (I think) major exception being costs of buying/owning property (renting is still reasonable I have been told). The afore mentioned comments are somewhat relative, as Taiwan is a densely populated island, so keep it in mind that the comparison should be against the cost of living in densely populated areas in the US.
A good reminder, thanks. I always wondered about the long-term intentions of the PRC in the first two Strait crises in the 1950s. Did Beijing plan to go further - beyond the group of small islands...Mao's policy against Chiang in 1949 when Chiang escaped to Taiwan was "Do not pursue a beaten or desperate enemy (穷寇勿追 qióng kòu wù zhuī)." Xi has inherited this naturally because the Thirty-Six Stratagems of ancient China teaches "Do not pursue your enemies or they will bite you. Wait till they lose fighting spirits and they will obey you (欲擒故縦 yù qín gù zòng)."