The Mosquito idea uses a lot of the retrospectroscope.
As conceived and the first 10 bombers off the production line the plane carried four 250lb bombs, the same bomb load as the Fairey Battle and the Blenheim.
Every "what if" thread relies on retrosepctroscope. And yet unlike a Battle or a Blenheim, Mosquitoes could survive repeated missions and hit their targets fairly reliably.
It was well into 1942 when they got four 500lb bombs into a Mosquito
Which to me is plenty, so long as they hit what they are aimed at.
at which point the Americans had 2-3 plants building B-17s and either 5 plants building B-24s or a smaller number actually producing B-24s with the extra plants being built. Buick, Chevrolet, Studebaker and others were either starting to put out engines or were finishing up construction on plants that would build radial engines by the tens of thousands.
Cancelling all of this to build even a metal Mosquito would have delayed the US bombing offensive by over a year.
I think you are exaggerating the scenario in which it would have changed. It would have been a phase in of one thing and phase out of another. The Americans and British manufactured a lot of planes that they either did not end up using or used for something different than originally intended. Production of heavy bombers in 1942 was not so far along that it couldn't change course.
Only two squadrons used Mosquitoes bombers in daylight missions in 1942 and until May of 1943. After that daylight raids were conducted by the fighter bomber version with two 500lb bombs inside and, depending on mission, two 500lbs under the wings.
Mosquito losses of the these first two squadrons were high. The two daylight bomber Mosquito Squadrons were switched to night pathfinders joining a 3rd Mosquito squadron.
Some raids had high casualties but they adjusted a variety of things. It was certainly clear in 1943 that the Mosquito had enormous merit as a bomber and even in 1942 it was doing better than all the other types in many respects.
Really? What do you think they would have done if they had continued taking Schweinfurt scale losses.Improved Merlins, 100/130 fuel allowed the Mosquito to improve it's performance and a 1944 Mosquito could do a lot of things a 1942 Mosquito could not do. But by late 1943/early 1944 it was way, way too late to switch bombing tactics/strategy.
Mosquitoes sucked at carrying incendiaries and the 4000lb cookie doesn't go operational until 1944.
I don't see incendiaries as particularly desirable. If your bomb aiming is accurate.
In the actual strategic bombing campaign the Germans were able to seed the paths taken by the heavy bombers with heavy AA guns. With faster wider ranging aircraft that don't have to stick together in massive formations to survive, there was a lot more ground to cover with whatever types of countermeasures you tried.
I do suspect the Germans would have made faster fighters, but that just would have gotten us into the escort-vs-interceptor battle which we do see as desirable as it helps eliminate the Luftwaffe.