You are in charge of the Luftwaffe: July 1940

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German civilian losses by bombing 1 June - 28 June 40
The worst incident was on 5./6. June, when there was at 20:45 an explosion at Klausthal-plant for chemicals in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, IMHO probably too early to be caused by BC but I really don't know, which killed 35-40. also 2 kids died that night in gas-pipe fire in Offenbach.
2nd worst was 3./4. June, 17 dead by bombing
then 7./8. June 13 dead, 17./18. 8 dead, 19./20. 7 dead and then 27./28. June 5 dead plus there were a few night with 1 - 2 dead.

Juha
 
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Then lets leave it at that and get back on topic.

So the orders are "Sea lion", how would everyone use the Luftwaffe?

Whilst rebuilding strength during the phoney war or sitzkrieg update all by Bf 109s with drop tanks. They are going to need the increased range for cross channel operations. The increased range will also give them much needed tactical flexibility.

Attack British shipping in the Channel and force the Royal Navy's destroyer force in the Channel to withdraw. This was historically accomplished.

Attack and keep attacking the Chain Home radar stations,partcularly in the South East. They could be disabled,as was historically done but the Luftwaffe has to keep coming back. Luftwaffe pilots often refer to their surprise at the British ability to have their fighters,as if by magic,in the right place at the right time. This would not be possible without the coordinated radar based air defence system masterminded by Dowding. It was a very effective force multiplier for the RAF.


Attack the RAF airfields and infrastructure. With a lack of radar the RAF will be far more vulnerable and prone to being caught on the ground. Any Air Force is more vulnerable on the ground,ask the Poles,French Russians or Americans at Pearl Harbour.

Attacks on the British aircraft industry when possible but these should not detract from the above. Do not allow the Luftwaffe to become overstretched and lose concentration of effort on specific and achievable objectives.

Finally a don't.Do not start aimlessly and randomely bombing British cities. There are all sorts of historical and doctrinal reasons why this happened,but with the benefit of hindsight it was a waste of valuable resources. British cities can be hammered,if needs be,AFTER the defeat of the RAF. It might prove useful as an added tool to convince the British to negotiate,particularly if they call your bluff and challenge you to invade.

With a bit of luck Sealion will not be needed because the prospect of landing troops on British beaches with no landing craft,no direct naval support,from Rhine barges and rubber dinghys should fill any Army commander with a deep sense of foreboding.
Compare the means at the disposal of the wermacht to make a seaborne landing in 1940 with those of the Anglo/Americans in 1944.

Cheers

Steve
 
Gaining control of the air over SE England and the channel was a precursor to a cross channel invasion. however, in reality perhaps the very best the Germans could hope to achieve was a slight air dominance. I do not believe that the germans had the ability to achieve air superiority in the Summaer of 1940. But it might have been possible to achieve local advantages here and there for short periods of time.

There were other constraints working againsat the germans. The first was time. With every day after Dunkirk the shattered British Army was growing stronger as it re-equiiped and re-organized. It was really too late by the end of September because by then the British were well on the way to recovery. The other thing about time is the wosening weather as the winter approached. Winter weather is going to make a cross channel invasion impossible, it will make re-supply very difficult without a functioning port in German hands.

The other constraint is the lack of landing craft, and the lack of an effective surface navy. Without either of these a seaborne attack is well nigh impoossible. Using the river barges was found post war to be a toital failure. The craft could not make the channel crossing in anything like reasonable time. Their best speed was estimated to be 2 knots, however the currents in the channel work against a crossing from the continent. Troops were expect4ed to embark from ports 80-100 miles from their targets. Optimistically, that puts the troopps in these craft for over 150 hours, before going into action against a dug in enemy with pleanty of forewarning to move reserves to the threatened sectors. Anyone who has spent any time in an LC wil know how miserable they are. If even one British DD gets into the invasion convoy, the convoy will be toast.

So a seborne attack along the lines of the historical plan was never going to work.

The only thing I see as possible would require better planning and use of resources from the middle of 1940....ie at the time of Dunkirk, or even before. What I have in mind is some sort of coup de main using the airborne troops and airlanding forces. Instead of wasting the transports and airborne forces in Holland, simply leave Holland alone. After the British Army is either trapped or evacuated from France....immediately after, like hours after reachiing the channel, Student and the 22 AL Div, along with approximately 5-6 pared down air transportable Jaeger Divs, mountain troopers or similar and are moved closer to the front. in a night operation (arriving just before dawn, the Germans execute a concentrated air assault probably on a North Sea port in the midlands like Hull. The object is to secure airfields and set up a perimeter to defnd those airfields. Approximately 2/3 of the LW is detached from the continuing fighting in France, concentrating on sea suppression. General LW units arent going to hit much, but aircraft over the North sea will have some deterrent effect on the RN. Untrained general LW air units can also work to lay defensive minefileds as quickly as possible. The RN will retaliate very strongly, and frankly I dont like the germans chances, but its a better chance than the suicidal plan they did have The idea is to send Destroyers laden with supplies by Day and transports by night. As the bridgehead builds up, the idea is to cut England in two, destroy one pocket, and then the other, from a central position in the midlands. By attacking straight after Dunkirk, the Brits have maybe 3 divs in England combat ready. The plan would require a great deal of good luck, and I dont like its chances, but is better than the historical plan.
 

That's not what Dowding thought.
Of a meeting on 7th September in which he described his command as "going downhill" and at which sought the means to go downhill as slowly as possible he said.

"It was absolutely essential that the enemy should not become aware that he had materially damaged us.It was imperative that an undiminished front exist in the South East,because the enemy was feeling the strain very much at the same time,and nothing should be affoded them in the nature of encouragement."

His success was largely due to what has been described as an 'air reserve doctrine'. The decision to make the squadron the 'largest tactical unit that it will be practically expedient to employ' backed this up. As September 1940 commenced the Luftwaffe were still confronted by what they called "the RAF's last 50 fighters" but the reality was that the RAF was close to breaking. Of particular concern was the acute shortage of combat ready fighter pilots.As Dowding was at pains to explain to Douglas in the four weeks up to September 4th,despite replacements from the three OTUs,he had suffered a net loss of 68 pilots. Park added that on the same date nine of his (11 Group) squadrons had started with less than fifteen pilots. Douglas suggested opening another OTU until Dowding explained that this in itself would be a further drain on Fighter Command's resources.
Dowding wanted more repair and maintenance crews. He was pleased with the works organisation,despite the attacks only two airfields (Lympne and Manston) had been out of action for any significant time. He also wanted to move vulnerable sector control rooms away from airfields but this was proving a big headache. There were problems with everything from re-routing of communications to security,accomodation,transport and even the provision of hot meals.
Fighter Command was on the verge of collapse. A more concerted and better organised effort by the Luftwaffe might have pushed it over the edge. It is no accident that Park always considered 7th September when the Luftwaffe switched its attention from his sector airfields to London as the turning point of the battle. The Luftwaffe's losses on 15th Septenber (later to become Battle of Britain day) might have precipitated the official cancellation of 'Sealion' two days later but the decisive mistakes had already been made.
Cheers
Steve
 
what about the strains being felt on the other side. How many billets were they short? Were the Germans attacking as strongly as they had earlier (well yes, but reserves were almost gone). What were their readiness rates. I can tell you they were suffering more than our friends of the LW would have you believe. And anyway, by September it was too late to undertake an invasion wehrmacht style. It could not have been done by that time. That was shown decisvely in post war wargaming of the scenario. August was the very latest weather wise that the cros channel attempt could have been made.

And I dont think the RAF was as close to total collapse as you think. Strained yes, worried, yes, potential to lose yes, broken absolutely not. Likley to lose, no. possible to lose, partially, but not totally. Remember, the Germans had to achieve total air domination, or supremacy. Air superiority was not enough. look at Normandy. what were the air conditions that applied over Allied beachheads in 1944? What makes the Germans any less vulnerable to disruption that they can settle for a lesser air control state
 
I get the feeling we're looking at this all in hindsight and missing out on exactly what was known at the time.

Was radar important to the LW?
Did Downing know how the LW was straining?

etc, etc, etc.....
 

In my scenario as Luftwaffe commander I would not let the RAF off the hook. I would have disabled the air defence system at the outset,Dowding wouldn't have to worry about his vulnerable sector control stations ,they'd be useless. The first the RAF would know of my raids was when they were seen by the (Royal) Observer Corps. They'd be lucky to get off the ground from their more southerly fields. Dowding and Park did have a scheme to use aircraft to reconnoitre incoming raids but it was abandoned for lack of suitable aircraft or suitably trained crews. If they tried that I'd be sure to deal with them too.
I would keep unrelenting pressure on Fighter Command. My Bf 109s would not be limited tactically as they were historically. They would not only escort my bombers and fast bombers (the only role I would contemplate for the Bf 110 and something it was actually good at) but would also fly "freijagd" hunting and destroying the RAF in the air,on the ground,wherever it was to be found,to paraphrase a later US commander.
If the inept and badly managed effort that The Luftwaffe made historically pushed the RAF to the brink,or even within sight of it as you suggest,then my Luftwaffe,with the benefit of hindsight,will befinitely bundle it over the edge and break it.

As I've said before,Dowding set himself the target of not loosing by November 1940. He saw salvation in the shorter days and winter weather. I reckon that he could have been defeated by mid September,at the worst early August.

After that I agree with you that the chances of a successful invasion are zero or mighty close to it,but I'd have done my bit.

Cheers

Steve
 

Exactly. Luftwaffe SE fighter pilots fit for duty:

29 June - 806
1 August - 869
1 September - 735
29 September 676

Serviceable aircraft:

Type - 13 Aug - 7 Sept
KG - 1008 - 798
JG - 853 - 658
ZG - 189 - 112

If you compare the RAF on 13 August with the 7 September, they had more pilots and more serviceable aircraft. For the Luftwaffe the reverse is true. Readiness rates had also dropped. The Luftwaffe fought what they thought would be a short campaign with their entire strength. The RAF planned for a long campaign and kept large forces in reserve.
 
I get the feeling we're looking at this all in hindsight and missing out on exactly what was known at the time.

Was radar important to the LW?
Did Downing know how the LW was straining?

etc, etc, etc.....

True,but the question was what would I do as Luftwaffe commander?
I do have the benefit of hindsight. The Luftwaffe intelligence under estimated Fighter Command's abilities at all levels. It did not understand the importance of Britain's integrated air defence system or it's weakest link,clearly visible along the coast. It's post raid assessments were woeful. It failed to adopt extant auxiliary fuel tank technology as early as it could have done,a mistake repeated by the 8th Air Force a few years later. It never concentrated on what should have been its primary objective,the destruction of Fighter Command,which incidentally was always going to take longer than four days! The list could go on.
These are not mistakes that I am going to repeat.
Cheers
Steve
 

But what were German losses up to that point? The during the BoB Luftwaffe was outnumbered in terms of fighter pilots AND fighters!

http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=103866
This thread explores a situation in which the Germans do what you suggest in putting pressure on the British and still lose in the end. I think you'd find it stimulating, even if you can find points to pick it apart.
 
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If you compare the RAF on 13 August with the 7 September, they had more pilots and more serviceable aircraft.

Aircraft were never a serious problem. There were few ocassions when Fighter Command suffered a net weakly loss.

On 17th August Evill sent Dowding a table showing Fighter Command's pilot situation. This would contradict the statement quoted above

"Replacements available at the moment are barely 50% of the casualties suffered in the past fortnight". (AIR16/903)

The men at the Ministry,Dowding,Park and even Douglas were all aware in late August/early September that Fighter Command was facing a crisis in qualified combat pilot numbers.

At the 7th September conference Douglas had assured Park that his command would be kept up to strength with new pilots. It was Evill who explained that this couldn't happen. In the four weeks up to September 4th Fighter Command had suffered 348 casulties. The OTUs had supplied 280 pilots in that same period,a shortfall of 68,equivalent to three squadrons. This does not take account of other losses caused by accident or illness. Furthermore the OTU course had been reduced from four to two weeks which meant that some pilots were going in to combat with as few as ten hours on frontline fighters and having never fired their guns

Park then told Douglas that casualties in 11 Group alone were running at about 100 a week.That very day nine squadrons had started the day with fewer than 15 pilots and the previous day squadrons had been put together as composite units,a practice detested by Park,Dowding,pilots and ground crews.

Dowding interrupted Park speaking directly to Douglas.

"You must realise that we are going downhill."

Now pilots were available but not combat ready fighter pilots. Dowding could have grounded all his Blenheims and Defiants and retrained these relatively experienced men (at least compared to those emerging from the OTUs) quickly.
He could have supported the creation of more OTUs but he saw them as a drain on his limited resources and anyway preferred pilots to finish their training at operational units. In 1940 there just wasn't time for them to do this.
Dowdings pilot shortage could have been alleviated but not solved by such measures. The real problem lay over his head at the Air Ministry which was determined to maintain a large bomber force.It had also failed to expand the training system to cope with the heavy casualties inevitable in wartime.

Cheers

Steve
 

They did exactly that, but those fighter pilots who were assigned to close escort were complaining about it very loudly (meaning a certain cigarhead here *cough cough*). Others were performing Freie Jagd at the same time. The USAAF adopted similar tactics later.

Attacking London (or other high value target) was in fact the correct tactical move as Fighter Command losses increased, German losses decreased. The RAF HAD to come up and fight, and no longer could play hide and seek, ignoring raids, nor it did have the ability to produce local superiority against the relatively smallish sized individual raids that the LW was relying on earlier. As much a Göring et. co. was criticized for it, massed bombers with overwhelming fighter escort worked well to suck the RAF into a Verdun-like bloodletting.

It was again what the USAAF employed against the Luftwaffe in 1944. It did not yield results in a few weeks (the LW had little choice in that, since a very small time table was available to them until bad wather set in second half of September) but it did made an effect in a few months.

I dare say ca. 200 bomber raids (with a manageable and protectable size bomber formation) with heavy emphasiz on fast Ju 88s (which automatically minimises exposion to slow Hurricanes, i.e. 2/3s of the RAF force) with about 400 fighters - 3 or 4 entire Jagdgeschwadern - in escort in one blob during the daylight hitting high profile targets like London combined with twice as many bombers hitting the aircraft industry and ports, no more than the top 3 targets in sequence until they are utterly destroyed during the night with precision raids would yield results relatively quickly, in about two months. The other units may rest and refit in the meanwhile and hammer the RAF in turns. Do 17 units, which had limited use due to their limited load and range should be used as night harass aircraft of airfields with 50 kg bombs, making repairs impossible. Recon work must be delegated to Bf 110s units, which are extremely hard to be intercept in the time. The LW eventually figured that out during the course of the Battle, but they did not have the benefit of hindsight, but only trial and error.

It would also make radar stations and the observer corps irrelevant as it would not matter whether the RAF knew where the Luftwaffe was, it would be physically impossible to raise and concentrate enough fighters the same airspace from various airfields (given the infancy and limitations of RAF command and control as well) in the short time, nor could they, with their equally short endurance stay in the air long enough to assemble a Mega Wing in response. The end result would be that unlike in the Battle, the RAF would always face a largely superior local LW, with predictable results.

A crash programme for 109s with drop tanks would also be a must in July, even at the expense of operations. It is needed to control the space long enough, and to assembe large raids.
 
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Yes, but you realize that the close escorts were only ordered after prohibitive bomber losses when the campaign started with 'Freijagd' missions. Initially the fighters weren't tied to bombers in July and the beginning of August, but were linked to them after losses were high despite fighter efforts.
 
I realize that. Freie Jagd was effective for the fighters, but often did not protect the bombers very well. It is not easy to coordinate such a thing, and with too much freedom, sooner or later the bombers would find themselves exposed to enemy fighters. As much as the German fighter pilots hated close escort, the RAF hated it even more.
 

I agree that the decision to attack London wasn't all black and white but rather complex question with pros and cons. IIRC Göring and Kesselring were for it and Sperrle against, the fact that the decision also meant transfer of some units from Sperrle to Kesselring might have had some effect on the oppinions of those two gentlemen, there were infighting inside LW high command as there were in RAF.

Juha
 
Freijagd with the increased endurance and tactical flexibility this bestows would be an entirely different affair to the 10/15 minutes that the Bf 109 had historically when it reached an arc running through the Thames at london.

If you have blinded the RAF by destroying the Chain Home stations the risk of effective bomber interceptions are much reduced. I'm suggesting that the Luftwaffe's Bf 109s go on the offensive. If they can catch the Spitfires and Hurricanes as they take off,climb or ideally on the ground,they are much more easily dealt with.

As Luftwaffe commander I propose a coordinated strategy,not the historical piece meal attacks with several concurrent objectives.

1. Destroy Britain's radar based air defence system.

2. Destroy Fighter Command.

3. Bomb the crap out of Britain and hope you can force her to negotiate rather than attempt a very risky invasion.

Cheers

Steve
 

What about using Bf110s with bomb racks and fighter-bombers, like Erprobungsgruppe 210 did? They were historically very interceptable, as when they were on escort duty they were shot down in droves, so as a recon aircraft they would not have faired well, though probably not as bad as the other options at the time.
Ideally a FW187 recon version would be been uninterceptable, but it was no more than a prototype at that point and out unless we change things much earlier.
Anyway, using the Bf110s at night as they did 1942 would have been a much better use of the aircraft for raids on airfields and radar stations. Even during the day flying low they could zoom in and out for raids on radar stations before fighters could scramble and intercept them. IIRC it took 6 minutes from radar sighting to sending to orders to stations to scramble; CHL had a 35 mile range, which could be covered in under 2 minutes by a bombladen Bf110. The challenge would then not be fighters, but rather AAA. That would hurt, but I think they would have greater survivability in that role bombing radar than Ju87s would.

Since the consensus seems to be that bombing Liverpool would not be successful in the long run, night attacks on RAF airfields with things like Knickebein and on radar stations with D/F gear would be the best use of the LW, other than launching bigger raids that were heavily escorted against airfields or sector stations within fighter escort range (on freijagd of course). Only Ju88s would be used during the day, while He111s and Do17 would operate at night; Bf110 fighter-bombers would be used whenever. KG100 would be brought in in July to start leading night attacks on British airfields/stations or facilities.
 
Even if there was no single fighter left in GB, that would never be a permanent state. Fighters can be rebuild, pilots trained. The KGs can't be everywhere, all the time.

Even if the Fighter Command disintegrates (big if, even the LW Jagdwaffe didn't disintegrate until long after the invasion), GB still had the option to defend against air attacks from the ground with AAA.

Even if LW bombers roam freely, as long as the RN is around, an invasion will fail.

Even if GB negotiates for temporary peace (which I think is highly unlikely no matter what big a 'what-if' you pull), who says they won't declare war again once the US enter the war?

All in all, this is a game with no winning strategy. Based on the (by now) disproven assumption that a determined populace can be forced to surrender (or sue for peace) by air assault only. With hindsight, doing nothing in the west (in terms of offensive actions on British soil), is the best strategy. Disrupt convoys, be a major nuisance in the atlantic. But other than that, hold back, conserve your numbers and cover your bases.
 
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