Coronavirus Thread

Looks like some of you might have bigger things to worry about than Coronavirus....
Hundreds of protesters, some carrying guns in the state Capitol, demonstrate against Michigan's emergency measures

Looking at the data from the US it looked as though it was starting to go past the peak, with the number of active cases staying steady or declining, and the number of deaths declining.

But it appears that yesterday (30 April) the number of deaths for the day jumped up above 2,000 again, and the number of active cases rose by about 40,000. Whether that is because fewer people recovered, more people contracted the virus or more tests proved positive I don't know.

pgeno71 said:

How is it that the richest nation on earth can be getting this so wrong?

Is it? I think your looking at the wrong number. Earlier threads explained why the US would have higher total cases and deaths. You should go back and read them. The number that is more comparative is deaths per million because that actually adjusts for population differences between nations. Here is a list of those:

Confirmed deaths(absolute) Population (in millions) Deaths per million
Belgium 7,501 11.42 656.71
Spain 24,275 46.72 519.54
Italy 27,682 60.43 458.07
United Kingdom 26,097 66.49 392.5
France 24,121 66.99 360.08
Netherlands 4,711 17.23 273.4
Ireland 1,190 4.85 245.18
Sweden 2,462 10.18 241.77
Switzerland 1,716 8.52 201.49
United States 60,908 327.17 186.17

Sorry the chart did not translate. Numbers are from Statista.

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Give it time!

While countries like Italy and Spain are having reducing new deaths per day, the US is still running quite high numbers.

Also, you would have to consider demographics. Whether the countries above have older populations than the US.

Certainly a number of the countries in that list have greater population densities than the US.

New York is running at 1,200+ deaths per 1M population, New Jersey 800+, Connecticut 630 and Massachusetts over 500.

wuzak said:

Looking at the data from the US it looked as though it was starting to go past the peak, with the number of active cases staying steady or declining, and the number of deaths declining.

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Experience here in NZ is that deaths lag infections, so you'd expect to see hte number of active infections start to decline about 2 weeks before the number of deaths do.

wuzak said:

Give it time!

While countries like Italy and Spain are having reducing new deaths per day, the US is still running quite high numbers.

Also, you would have to consider demographics. Whether the countries above have older populations than the US.

Certainly a number of the countries in that list have greater population densities than the US.

New York is running at 1,200+ deaths per 1M population, New Jersey 800+, Connecticut 630 and Massachusetts over 500.

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Our (New Zealand) figures are 19 deaths for just under 5 million people, so around 4 per million

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:

But that is a choice the smoker makes, knowing damn well what the risks are. Nobody wants to catch a virus, let along choosing between risking the virus, or putting food on the table.

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You are absolutely correct, just like everybody knows the risk when they drive, when they fly, when they drink alcohol, when they eat grilled meats, when they go out during flu season or when people voluntary/involuntarily are around smokers and die from it (8% of deaths from smoking fall in this category).

IMHO it is far better to have a job with insurance and risk getting COVID (or any other virus) than to be told to stay home and lose your job and insurance to have a less chance of getting a virus. Sadly, we took away this choice from 20+ million people who are now unemployed because of this. So now its down to the question: Which is worse, the virus or the reaction to it?

vikingBerserker said:

Y

IMHO it is far better to have a job with insurance and risk getting COVID (or any other virus) than to be told to stay home and lose your job and insurance to have a less chance of getting a virus. Sadly, we took away this choice from 20+ million people who are now unemployed because of this. So now its down to the question: Which is worse, the virus or the reaction to it?

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But you fail to consider the rights of those who you unknowingly pass it on to.

I don't think its any coincidence that the countries that have fared best are the ones that value collective rights over personal ones.

There is a balance, but some countries aren't even looking for a balance. Personally, I think NZ has persisted on our elimination path for too long, and hte gain we're getting for an extra couple of weeks isn't worth it, but to have re-opened any sooner that that would have been murder.

Well, the acute issue I have with second-hand smoke is that it's a very effective migraine trigger, at least for me. I won't die from a migraine; it just feels like one wants to.

But the previous poster, ShortRound6, is absolutely right: covid-19 could kill you in a week. Unless you're severe asthmatic, second-hand smoke will take decades.

----

Yes, it's also true that the Spanish flu (which most likely originated in Kansas) killed tens of millions. Part of the reason was the disruption due to WW1, part due to inadequate medical care, and part due to inadequate response. Well-fed, fit people tend to be less susceptible to disease than malnourished ones; many places in Europe had years of chronic food shortages due to the depredations of war and bad harvests (the Russian Revolution was partly due to bad harvests and poor response by the Russian government). There were also about 675,000 deaths in the US, with some areas managing much worse than others.

gumbyk said:

Experience here in NZ is that deaths lag infections, so you'd expect to see hte number of active infections start to decline about 2 weeks before the number of deaths do.

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My point is that they were declining, and now they're not.

I had never thought I'd ever worry about NOT being able to get a haircut.

I cut my own hair. My kids call the "insane asylum look"

vikingBerserker said:

You are absolutely correct, just like everybody knows the risk when they drive, when they fly, when they drink alcohol, when they eat grilled meats, when they go out during flu season or when people voluntary/involuntarily are around smokers and die from it (8% of deaths from smoking fall in this category).

IMHO it is far better to have a job with insurance and risk getting COVID (or any other virus) than to be told to stay home and lose your job and insurance to have a less chance of getting a virus. Sadly, we took away this choice from 20+ million people who are now unemployed because of this. So now its down to the question: Which is worse, the virus or the reaction to it?

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Except that people going to work risk giving it to others whether they work or not. Because every infected person can pass it to others at home, or at the store. With a virus like this, where you are contagious weeks before symptoms start, it is too risky. For that to even remotely have a chance of working, you have to know who has the virus, and who doesn't. It's too late to do that because we sat with our thumb up our ass for too long.

Your idea only works as well when there is decent health insurance. Not the joke we have now, where 40% of the country either has no insurance, or insurance that does not cover shit. Where people have to go to work even when sick because they won't get paid if they don't, or cannot afford the out of pocket medical expenses. "Oh you're sick? Too bad, get to work and infect others, or your kids go hungry."

Then what good does it do to have plants and factories shutting down anyhow because thousands of workers are getting sick and spreading it too each other? Take the Tyson meat plants, for instance. They are spreading the virus like wildfire, and production is down by 25%.

Some people say the United States was not built to be shut down. At the same time it was not built for people to get sick. The system will fail them regardless. It is a no win situation. You are screwed if you don't work, and you are screwed if you do. Fuck em though. Every man for themself.

__________Population***
___________Density__Population____Confirmed_______________Deaths/
___________(sq.mi.)___ (millions)______Cases________Deaths____million

Japan________867_____126.5_________14,305_________455_______3.6___(Japan first confirmed case was on 6 January)*

S.Korea_____1,325______51.3_________10,774_________248_______4.8___(Korea first confirmed case was on 20 January)**

US____________94_____331.0______ 1,090,000______63,538_____192.0___(US first confirmed case was on 20 January)**

Germany_____ 623______83.8________163,000_______ 6,623______79.0___(Germany first confirmed case was on 27 January)

*Note that Japan had 14 days less warning than the US. The ensuing spread of COVID-19 in the two countries is an example of one country doing things about as well as can be done, and the other not anywhere near as well.
**Note that S.Korea and the US confirmed their first cases on the same day. The ensuing spread of COVID-19 in the two countries is an example of one country doing things about as well as can be done, and the other not anywhere near as well.
***Note that the US has the lowest population density, by a factor of 5.7x to 14x.

_________________Population****
__________________Density__Population____Confirmed_______________Deaths/
__________________(sq.mi.)___ (millions)______Cases________Deaths____million

Tokyo_____________15,957_____9.273________4,152_________117_______12.6

Seoul_____________44,052_____9.776_________ 634___________ 2________0.2
Daegu_____________ 7,302_____5.120________6,867_________172_______33.6*****

New York City_____ 26,403_____8.399_____ 167,000______ 12,976____1,544.9

Berlin _____________ 9,870_____3.769________5,827_________147_______39.0

****Density of the city only, not the metropolitan area, except for Daegu (actually Daegu–Gyeongbuk metropolitan area).
*****The Daegu–Gyeongbuk metro was the hardest hit of the cities in S.Korea.


Test rates as of 29-30 April

Japan_______ 1.3 (TTI) per thousand******
S.Korea_____12.1 (TTI)
US_________ 19.3
Germany____30.5

******Compare the above test rates in combination with the low case rate and death rate in the countries that immediately instituted Test,Trace, and Isolate (TTI) or maybe Track, Test, and Isolate (still TTI).

Minnesota report, April 30
cases 5,136***, recovered 2,172, hospitalized 1,044, deaths 343**/***, tested 70,276*/***
fatality rate 6.7%
mortality rate 60.2 per million
test rate 12.3 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.
**Approximately 78% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109. So far in Minnesota, only 3 deaths have occurred in patients with no known underlying health conditions.
***Although the measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') is still increasing. This is true regardless of whether the controlling factor used is confirmed cases, test rate, or death rate.

Another thing that the "But the Ecomony" crowd who just want to open everything up, keep choosing to ignore is that the purpose of the lockdowns was to reduce the number of people becoming critically ill and overburdening our healthcare system. Once all the ICUs are gone, you are going to see a spike in deaths from all sorts of things. Not just from the coronavirus. Flu deaths will go up, infection deaths will go up, fatalities due to car accidents will go up, and fatalities due to otherwise treatable conditions will go up. Because of a lack of resources. It's a simple fact that our healthcare experts have pointed out from day one, and people still refuse to accept.

Demanding your rights, without acknowledging your responsibilities is not freedom, its adolescence.

And no, before anyone gets their panties in a bunch, I am not saying anyone here is doing this.

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:

Demanding your rights, without acknowledging your responsibilities is not freedom, its adolescence.

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Well spoken and T shirt or beter face mask worthy.

Maybe I am being simplistic but it seems to me it is a bit like freedom of speech, Yes you have a constitutional right of freedom of speech but it stops short of yelling "fire" in a crowded movie theater to use an old example.
Your rights end when they endanger other people because they have rights too.

You should be able to go to work and pay your bills if it can be done without endangering other people.
Unfortunately we are in a situation/system where there is not enough testing to find out who is really sick/contagious and who is not.
We are in a situation/system where for years/decades people have been penalized or punished for taking sick time in the name of productivity. It takes a while to change that perspective.
Unfortunately we have, in some quarters, gotten to the point of some people say other people should be willing to die for the sake of productivity.

Sorry but when did your right to go to the beach top my right to live(keep breathing, not go out to the Do Drop Inn on friday night?)

Shortround6 said:

Maybe I am being simplistic but it seems to me it is a bit like freedom of speech, Yes you have a constitutional right of freedom of speech but it stops short of yelling "fire" in a crowded movie theater to use an old example.
Your rights end when they endanger other people because they have rights too.

You should be able to go to work and pay your bills if it can be done without endangering other people.
Unfortunately we are in a situation/system where there is not enough testing to find out who is really sick/contagious and who is not.
We are in a situation/system where for years/decades people have been penalized or punished for taking sick time in the name of productivity. It takes a while to change that perspective.
Unfortunately we have, in some quarters, gotten to the point of some people say other people should be willing to die for the sake of productivity.

Sorry but when did your right to go to the beach top my right to live(keep breathing, not go out to the Do Drop Inn on friday night?)

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My response is lil off-topic, but maybe it relates to the way some people think. I actually had a conversation with someone who said that drinking and driving laws infringe on his freedoms and rights. When I asked him about the lives he endangers by doing so, his response was that is the price of freedom. An extreme example? Yes, but I hear things like this all too often now.

33 years as a firefighter and my truck/s usually had the rescue equipment (Hurst tools). Things changed over time and NOT going out at 2:00 AM at bar closing time on a regular basis was one of the better changes. Stupid people were job security but they often affect other people who had nothing to do with the poor decision. Nobody should be injured or killed as a "price" that society has to pay for the "Freedom" to drive while impaired (drunk, sick or texting). I would really like somebody to show me in the constitution where it says you can endanger other people?

I do not like Huffpost as a source. I think it is a very biased news source that cherry picks spins things its way (Then again Faux News, CNN, etc. all do the same thing, and are no better). So I do not vouch for this article. Regardless of the truth or not, I do think it sheds a light to the problem we are discussing between balancing the economy and peoples health.

'Incensed' Sheriff Slams 'Dysfunctional' Tyson For 900 COVID-19 Cases In Iowa Hot Spot

I think that is one thing we agree upon, I am all for balance and common sense.