at6
1st Sergeant
I wish that testing would stop the spread but regrettably it won't. We only get numbers with no hopeful results. I like living and this sh!t may yet get many of us including my a$$.
Coronavirus Thread
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I don't agree with this, not in the long term.
Things went back to normal after the Spanish flu pandemic, but it did take a couple of years. In the absence of a vaccine (and we have never yet developed a close to 100% effective vaccine against a coronavirus, which means eradication is a very remote possibility) this virus will remain with us. The pandemic will peter out in the same way that Spanish flu did. People do not want to hear this, but the mechanism is simple. Herd immunity, something certain governments were castigated for even mentioning, will become established in populations. This does not eradicate a virus, it simply limits the rate of infection. People will still contract and die of the disease, just as they do from flu every year, but epidemics will be prevented by immunity in a sufficiently high proportion of a given population. That is pretty much a definition of herd immunity, something so often misrepresented and misunderstood; it does not mean the eradication of the disease. In the mean time a lot more people will die, the number was estimated at 50 million worldwide in the Spanish flu pandemic. This immunity can only be acquired in two ways; naturally, by a high enough percentage of a population recovering from infection; artificially, by mass vaccination with an effective enough vaccine. Social distancing and other measures simply manage the rate of infection and avoid the sort of scenes we saw in northern Italy earlier this year. The slowed rate of infection (and hospitalisations and deaths) will be extended over a much longer time, but that time will eventually come to an end. I wouldn't bank on it being before late 2022.
The reason this message is not being promoted is political, not medical.
This poses serious problems for nations that did enforce rigorous lock downs and isolation. They will be the ones with vulnerable populations. Hardly anyone in the country has been infected, the latest estimate for Stockholm County, Sweden, is 35% of the population infected. The Swedes are well ahead of that particular curve. If a vaccine is not developed countries like NZ have very limited options. For example, can N Z realistically quarantine every visitor for 14-21 days for the next several years? It only needs one infected person to arrive in their vulnerable population to set of another epidemic.
buffnut453
Captain
A rather sobering statistic from the UK yesterday. Of all the people who died in hospitals due to COVID-19, some 25% had diabetes. As someone who lives with that chronic condition (and not from any lifestyle decisions I made), it certainly makes me nervous about the future as rules get relaxed. My big fear is that people will stop doing the basic things that help slow the spread of this (and any other) virus.
My workplace is spread across a large number of buildings, and hand-washing stations have been set up for people to use before they enter buildings and/or engage with support staff. Yesterday, I walked to one of the buildings and duly washed my hands for the recommended 20 seconds (twice through Happy Birthday). In that time 2 other people "washed" and dried their hands and went into the building ahead of me.
If I'm stupid then I deserve to be subject to the consequences of my actions...but it makes me really angry that my life is being threatened because people can't wash their bluddy hands properly or refuse to wear masks. Sorry for the rant but I'm only just north of 50, I'm a contributing member of society, and I want the opportunity to see my kids marry and start raising their own families. For pity's sake people, just be considerate of others and do your bit to protect them from this virus.
My workplace is spread across a large number of buildings, and hand-washing stations have been set up for people to use before they enter buildings and/or engage with support staff. Yesterday, I walked to one of the buildings and duly washed my hands for the recommended 20 seconds (twice through Happy Birthday). In that time 2 other people "washed" and dried their hands and went into the building ahead of me.
If I'm stupid then I deserve to be subject to the consequences of my actions...but it makes me really angry that my life is being threatened because people can't wash their bluddy hands properly or refuse to wear masks. Sorry for the rant but I'm only just north of 50, I'm a contributing member of society, and I want the opportunity to see my kids marry and start raising their own families. For pity's sake people, just be considerate of others and do your bit to protect them from this virus.
To complicate matters sky news are reporting that london is registering 24 new cases of infection per day.
yet the north east (where i live) is reporting around 4000 cases daily !
Middlesbrough, a couple of miles away from my house is a national hotspot and we see lots of local reports of large groups ignoring government advice.
the local council in Middlesbrough are keeping parks etc closed against government advice, probably because they can see the numptys cant be trusted to help keep us all safe
yet the north east (where i live) is reporting around 4000 cases daily !
Middlesbrough, a couple of miles away from my house is a national hotspot and we see lots of local reports of large groups ignoring government advice.
the local council in Middlesbrough are keeping parks etc closed against government advice, probably because they can see the numptys cant be trusted to help keep us all safe
That's great, IF it works on this virus. Despite the hoopla, it's not a proven fact that previous infection confers immunity against this virus, and it seems to be able to mutate pretty frequently, perhaps outstripping the pace of vaccines and acquired immunity to keep up with ever newer strains. There's definitely not enough certainty in any of this to be basing public policy on.
cherry blossom
Senior Airman
- 516
- Apr 23, 2007
Coming back to one of the minor inconveniences of this crisis, I found an interesting page online mentioning similar problems from 1942 The Infamous Toilet Paper Letter.
Antibodies do confer immunity. The extent of that immunity and length, nobody knows, yet. They are not necessarily strain specific, that's not how our immune system works. We can think of it working on a 'best fit' principle.
This is a coronavirus and it is not an exceptional virus. The problem is not that it is contagious, or that it is particularly lethal, it is that it is new. We have not developed our biological responses to it and we still have a lot to learn about it.
We are going to have to live with it.
Last I heard, MEDICAL EXPERTS not POLITICAL EXPERTS are saying that immunity is not guaranteed, or enough to ensure herd immunity. They are not sure yet that you get any form of immunity in a capacity to do herd immunity. More testing is required.
Political control theories are nothing more than tin foil hattery.
Now, one final time, let's ALL (me included) knock it off with the politics.
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I have an antibody test appointment today. If it comes back positive, which I expect it will, then my wife will get tested.
I saw that, the figures include Yorkshire, but TBH I don't believe them.
Yes, sorry north east and Yorkshire !
Italy report, 15th May 5 pm cest
cases 223,885, +789, deaths 31,610, +242, recovered 120,205, +4,907, active cases 72,070, -4,370, tests 2,875,680, +68,176
fatality rate 14.1%
mortality rate 524 per million
test rate 47.7 per thousand
positive rate 7.8%
test rate today 1,130 per million
positive rate today 1.2%
new case rate today 13 per million
cases 223,885, +789, deaths 31,610, +242, recovered 120,205, +4,907, active cases 72,070, -4,370, tests 2,875,680, +68,176
fatality rate 14.1%
mortality rate 524 per million
test rate 47.7 per thousand
positive rate 7.8%
test rate today 1,130 per million
positive rate today 1.2%
new case rate today 13 per million
The "MEDICAL EXPERTS" in Sweden disagree. I know there needs to be more testing and study, but herd immunity is not a political invention, it is a basic biological concept. And, I am sure there are epidemiologist and doctors in the US and elsewhere that support a herd immunity approach. But, like the climatologists that disagree with global warming, they probably are refraining from speaking for fear of being smeared as "murderers" or worse. What stona was explaining is pretty much straight out of a science textbook, not a political handbook. What the press & social media have effectively done surrounding the epidemic is politicized medical discourse to support the stay-at-home THEORY. Two doctors from California had videos removed from Facebook for espousing the herd immunity theory. Medical experts have been wrong about this epidemic or have changed their minds about different aspects of it from death totals, including mitigation, to a million in the US alone to the role of masks, and now, they may be proven wrong about when the virus arrived. Just saw a news report that French doctors now believe that patients who died in November were infected with CoVid-19. I know science changes with new evidence and information, which means it is not infallible. I remember when Pluto was a planet, until they changed the definition.
Again, MEDICAL EXPERTS have said that more testing needs to be done before we can say herd immunity works. This is a new virus, and they do not know. Even Swedish officials have stated that only 25% of the population has antibodies, and that immunity may be too short lived to cause herd immunity. Some people who become infected are showing negative for antibodies.
And I am well aware how science works. My wife happens to be a scientist. I'm not a tin foil hatter or someone who follows the flavor of the month because their chosen leader in DC tells them what to think, thank you very much.
I never accused you of being a conspiracy nut or following the flavor of the month, nor did I mean to imply it. I am sorry if you got that impression. As you correctly point out this is a new virus that we know little about, I was only postulating that we don't fully know what information is actually correct or what are/will be the best practices. I am not saying that stay-at-home is wrong because it would make a hypocrit because that is what I've been doing for two months. My post was a response to what I perceived as people piling on stona for expressing a scientific theory that I have seen real doctors espouse, with my own eyes, during this pandemic.
Also, as for antibody tests, I don't know about you, but my governor told me they can't be trusted, and she bases everything she says and does on science.
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MIflyer
1st Lieutenant
There seems to be a lot of confusion about wearing of masks in response to the Wuflu Pandemic. The attached illustration shows the proper way to wear a mask.
I was not pilling on Stona, I was merely pointing out that the idea that herd immunity will work is not known. Everything he says is about a government media conspiracy to control the population. You can chalk that up there with Chemtrails. I have nothing but respect for Stona, and consider him a valuable member of our family, but a spade is a spade...
As for the antibody test I am merely getting it because it may confirm the illness I had for 2 weeks in April. The illness I could not get tested for because all those tests we were telling everyone were available, actually weren't. Is it a 100%, of course not, but my company paid so I don't care.
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