North of Watford so who cares? The North east can randomly include or exclude everyone who isn't from London or Scotland as far as I can see, have to check every time I see the name and a "stat" attached.
Coronavirus Thread
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ThomasP
Senior Master Sergeant
Minnesota report, May 15
cases 14,240**, recovered 9,503, hospitalized 1,985, deaths 683**/**, tested 134,669*/**
fatality rate 4.8%
mortality rate 119.8 per million
test rate 23.6 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test has just passed 5,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be increasing again. In theory this is at least partly (largely?) due to the increased rate of testing.
cases 14,240**, recovered 9,503, hospitalized 1,985, deaths 683**/**, tested 134,669*/**
fatality rate 4.8%
mortality rate 119.8 per million
test rate 23.6 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test has just passed 5,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be increasing again. In theory this is at least partly (largely?) due to the increased rate of testing.
Herd immunity is a long established factor in limiting the spread of contagious diseases.
You can calculate the proportion needed to achieve herd immunity if you know the basic reproduction number, Rₒ. This is the average number of people that one infected person will infect, given a completely susceptible population.
The equation is:
H % = (1-1/Rₒ) x 100
It is estimated that Rₒ is about 3 for Sars-CoV-2 for developed countries, with no measures taken in mitigation. Most developed countries are managing to keep this number at about 1 or less, but at almost incalculable cost. If we take the value as 3, this gives the percentage of the population needed for herd immunity to be 66.7%. That is why we have heard the figure of 70% bandied about by epidemiologists.
It is not about political control. It is about the unwillingness of democratically elected politicians to say things that are likely to be unpopular vote losers.
Again, MEDICAL EXPERTS and Scientists are saying that herd immunity is not guaranteed because the length of immunity is possibly very short lived with this novel coronavirus. They quite simply do not know for this virus.
Science is not absolute. What worked before, may not be possible now. No one is saying herd immunity is not possible, but before you risk getting 65% of the population sick killing off lots of people in the process you might what to do more research and find out if it does. That is what the majority of experts are saying.
It's not about fricken control, its about doing things right and minimizing the burden on the hospitals.
Italy report, 16th May 5 pm cest
cases 224,760, +875, deaths 31,763, +153, recovered 122,810, +2,605, active cases 70,187, -1,883, tests 2,944,859, +69,179
fatality rate 14.1%
mortality rate 527 per million
test rate 48.8 per thousand
positive rate 7.6%
test rate today 1,147 per million
positive rate today 1.3%
new case rate today 15 per million
cases 224,760, +875, deaths 31,763, +153, recovered 122,810, +2,605, active cases 70,187, -1,883, tests 2,944,859, +69,179
fatality rate 14.1%
mortality rate 527 per million
test rate 48.8 per thousand
positive rate 7.6%
test rate today 1,147 per million
positive rate today 1.3%
new case rate today 15 per million
Dinger
Airman 1st Class
Phewww! - what a relief! - I bet this had you all awake at nights worrying! - Wondering what gender the French would make "Covid"????
Who would have guessed feminine! - I'd have put my money on "le Covid"! - But "La Covid" wins out!
Protectors of the French language says 'Covid' takes a feminine article - CNN
Who would have guessed feminine! - I'd have put my money on "le Covid"! - But "La Covid" wins out!
Protectors of the French language says 'Covid' takes a feminine article - CNN
at6
1st Sergeant
Now people with children have to worry about a new Covid related problem. An illness similar to Kawasaki has even been detected locally. Fortunately the child survived but tested positive for Covid anti-bodies.
TheMadPenguin
Senior Airman
or donation losers, or media fame losers...
because the Corona Virus Diseade is "une maladie" "maladie" the french word for disease is feminine as the italian word "malattia" , or the spanish "enfermedad" or the portugues "doenca" (i've not the right keyboard), my romanian is nil so IDK if is feminine also in this neo-latin language
Well the idiots were out in force in London today !
Coronavirus: Arrests in Hyde Park as lockdown protesters denounce 'fake' virus
Coronavirus: Arrests in Hyde Park as lockdown protesters denounce 'fake' virus
TheMadPenguin
Senior Airman
Point of sorrow: either I'm really really low on brain fluid, or the closure/lockdowns should have been done by county, not by state (speaking of the US). Dade/Miami lockdown? Yes. Those partying idiots should have been spanked naked and sent home glow-butt. Here in Bay/Panama City, the beach density is low enough that 6 feet was minimum clearance between family gatherings before CCV. Mexico Beach (the city) was ground zero for Hurricane Michael; before the storm the clearance was more like 12 feet between family gatherings. We didn't profit from a beach closure. Miami did. I'm not sure any state (Rhode Island maybe) is so homogeneous that a one-size-fits-all actually fits all. The Press, the Politicians, and The Money are all concentrated in cities. Maybe that's why state-wide closure/lockdown was implemented, why The Press buys in, and why outsiders are seriously riled about it all.
I think your ok on brain fluid. Part of the problem was the panic when they believed there were going to be a million deaths in the US even with mitigation policies.
Even if Herd Immunity works with Covid-19, lets put it into perspective. It's John Hopkins, but then again maybe they are part of the conspiracy too...
Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception
Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception
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- #2,334
The numbers work out to 15-21% of people in NYC affected (8.4 million), with 17500 (as of the date of the publication) died, you have a current running mortality rate around 0.992% to 1.389% not factoring potential non-counted cases. That figure seems to be around the same as the numbers that Korea came up with early on.Even if Herd Immunity works with Covid-19, lets put it into perspective. It's John Hopkins, but then again maybe they are part of the conspiracy too...
Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception
If I did my math remotely right, to run through 231,000,000 people with even that mortality rate figure, you'll lose something around 2.3 to 3.2 million, not half a million to reach that 70% figure. Since the virus mutates at a decent clip, herd immunity might not be guaranteed. The cold mutates so often that even if we are immune to one strain, so many others exist to create trouble.
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My hair's getting a little longer than I'm used to, though I'm not quite that far yet. That said, I had considered just shaving it off.
Mine's way past shaving. I'm feeling like a shaggy dog. Anybody got some flea powder......or better yet, a BrushHog?
If you're going to lockdown the cities and let the countryside run free, you'll have to freeze all travel between them or defeat your whole purpose. Part of the reason my state has such a low infection rate, in addition to our thin population, is that casual interstate travel results in a 14 day quarantine. Professional border crossers such as FedEx, UPS, fuel tankers, etc are monitored closely with wellness checks and where indicated, Covid testing. Out of state plates on the highway attract unsolicited attention.
My Massachusetts cousins set out today to come up and open up camp for the summer. They stopped (maskless) at the welcome station on the Interstate for a snack and were told if they were to continue into VT to expect to stay in quarantine for two weeks before interacting with the locals. Meanwhile, an officer took a photo of their vehicle and plates for the record. Wisely, they turned around and went home.
Cheers,
Wes
My irrepressible next door neighbor in high school days grew up in a French farming village and married a GI during WWII. She tutored me in French and said the true meaning of "la maladie" was the ferocious bout of PMS she suffered monthly. "Les hommes ne comprenez pas! C'est l'enfer!!"
Cheers,
Wes
I am not questioning or challenging anyone's math, but a problem with all of this is that we don't have accurate numbers and may not have for some time. We don't really know how many people have died because doctors are looking back at older cases and finding more Covid fatalities. Also, heath officials are struggling to account for the excess death that has occurred in places since January. If the French doctors are right, they had patients die from the virus in November, which means the pathogen could have been around a lot longer than previously thought. We don't know how many people are/were infected either. I have heard the 80% figure bantered about for people that will show mild or no symptoms. Does that mean that 1.46 million confirmed cases is actually over 5 million people infected? What does that mean for the mortality rate? I don't know and I don't claim to know the answers, I'm just putting it out there as food for thought.
Also, I have seen a lot of estimates for some aspects of the pandemic, but I have not seen any estimates that identify the total number of infected people in the US. If any one has seen or knows that number, could you please share it with us.
Also, I have seen a lot of estimates for some aspects of the pandemic, but I have not seen any estimates that identify the total number of infected people in the US. If any one has seen or knows that number, could you please share it with us.
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