Coronavirus Thread

[gumbyk]

So, there are more infected; that means the disease is LESS likely to kill you.
Get a grip man!
Be prudent and understand the perspective.
Or, you could cower under your bed, shivering.
Your choice.

It's not about how many people it kills... It's about overwhelming the medical facilities to the point that doctors have to decide who lives and who dies, which is what is happening in Italy. Those who are hospitalised have 2 weeks in ICU.

THIS is the difference between your personal risk, and the risk to the country, which is what the professionals are talking about.

 

[fubar57]

Retired doctors being asked to come back https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/retired-doctors-in-bc-coming-back-to-work-covid-19-coronavirus-1.5495275

 

[JAG88]

Yes, it is very simple.

- It is highly contagious.
- Most cases are mild and often asymptomatic
- Preys on those already weakened by age or disease.
- Thereafter is a matter of how fast vulnerable people get infected versus the availability of respirator-equipped ICU beds in your area, because once those are close to full then the doctors have to begin triage, like in Italy.

Good times...

 

[gumbyk]

Yes, it is very simple.

- It is highly contagious.
- Most cases are mild and often asymptomatic
- Preys on those already weakened by age or disease.
- Thereafter is a matter of how fast vulnerable people get infected versus the availability of respirator-equipped ICU beds in your area, because once those are close to full then the doctors have to begin triage, like in Italy.

Good times...

And the economic effects too. e.g. if it gets into our house, my wife's business will have to shut down, her employee will have to try working from home, which will be a lot less efficient. Then, if I shut down, there will be half a dozen other companies without support they need to have to keep their operating certificate.
People need to think about more than if it will kill them...

Although from what I hear, the USA don't have enough test kits, so we may never know the infection rate there.

 

[Zipper730]

J JAG88

The most obvious problems are

1. People who are elderly
2. People with certain health conditions
   • Cardiovascular disease
   • Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
   • Diabetes
   • Immunocompromised status
3. The fact that it poses to overwhelm the hospital system we have: We are not equipped for pandemics. I don't know what we did in the era of Smallpox, but we are not equipped for this stuff anymore.

 

[gumbyk]

J JAG88
I don't know what we did in the era of Smallpox, but we are not equipped for this stuff anymore.

People died - that's what we did...

Just think, if the ICU is full with Covid patients, what are you going to do with the 60 year old who has a heart attack?

There are a whole raft of flow-on effects that people like to ignore.

 

[michael rauls]

lol

Get a grip? Cower under my bed? Didn't I say we should not panic? Did I say I was panicking?

Learn to read and comprehend a post first, then comment. Capeesh?

I think he was agreeing with you and his admonition was to the panicked masses.
That's the way it struck me anyway.

 

[fubar57]

While the virus has hit Italy pretty hard, they also have a pretty high mortality rate with influenza as well...Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) - ScienceDirect

 

[JAG88]

And the economic effects too. e.g. if it gets into our house, my wife's business will have to shut down, her employee will have to try working from home, which will be a lot less efficient. Then, if I shut down, there will be half a dozen other companies without support they need to have to keep their operating certificate.
People need to think about more than if it will kill them...

Although from what I hear, the USA don't have enough test kits, so we may never know the infection rate there.

Oh, that is a given, this will have a horrible cascade effect on the world economy, I just talked to a couple friends that hadnt been paying much attention to this since they already had their plate full with keeping business afloat, well... now they know they are going under.

You are well past test kits now, it is already spreading without control, it is what happened in Italy, they only tested people with symptoms and many people never have them, so it grows unchecked and unnoticed until it blows in your face.

Korea did make and use a lot of test kits and seems to have a grip on the situation, good for them. Same for Taiwan. That means they have a lot of cases (many mild) and low mortality rate, Italy had few tests so only tested the sick thus their mortality rate is higher as a percentage. It also seems the Italian population didnt give a damn about warnings and quarantine measures, people simply kept moving around... so now they are in lock down.

 

[JAG88]

J JAG88 I don't know what we did in the era of Smallpox, but we are not equipped for this stuff anymore.

People used lots of shovels... always good remembering this continent was taken from the prior owners thanks to this and other diseases. By accident and through "gifts".

 

[michael rauls]

The much higher rate in Italy is perplexing and somewhat concerning. The only explanation I can think of for such a large discrepancy in fatality rates is a shortage of test kits( more so than other countries) which would mean that only the most serious cases( which would of course have a higher fatality rate) would be tested.
I don't have any evidence this is the case but its the only thing I can think of that makes sense.

 

[fubar57]

M michael rauls Why are deaths from coronavirus so high in Italy? | Live Science

 

[JAG88]

The much higher rate in Italy is perplexing and somewhat concerning. The only explanation I can think of for such a large discrepancy in fatality rates is a shortage of test kits( more so than other countries) which would mean that only the most serious cases( which would of course have a higher fatality rate) would be tested.
I don't have any evidence this is the case but its the only thing I can think of that makes sense.

Cases in Southamerica are almost all of Italian origin, the Italians clearly didnt test extensively until they had a real problem in their hands and plenty of sick people moving around.

 

[michael rauls]

One thing that is worrying me about this is the economic affects. Particularly so due to the overvaluation of the worlds stock and sovereign bond markets( more so than in 1929). One could argue, and many do, that the efficiencies of todays economy warrant a higher valuation and I would agree to a point but not this high imho. By many metrics we are in the most overvalued market ever and ever is a long time. This condition is with a few exceptions world wide. Also, exponential growth in dept, public and private, over the last decade is worrisome as well.
If y'all have been paying attention to the markets you know it appears that the bubble has burst although central banks may ride to the rescue with additional monetary stimulus and perhaps outright asset purchases. Hard to predict how these things will shake out. If I could predict them I would be a multi millionaire but it does look like there is the potential for really bad economic outcome.
The thing that concerns me most about this is not monetary strictly speaking but the affect another Great Depression would have on people. If the worlwide economy collapses alot of people in first world countries will lose there homes, savings etc. and in the third world alot of people would starve. Its possible that the economic fall out from over reaction and shutting down entire economies will kill more people than the virus ever could have.
This is of course a worst case scenario but given market valuations and most first world countries having debt far in excess of GDP I don't think its too far out on the bottom of the bell curve of possibilities......unfortunately.

 

[GrauGeist]

People used lots of shovels... always good remembering this continent was taken from the prior owners thanks to this and other diseases. By accident and through "gifts".

We need to keep in mind that the "prior owners" were not "kind and gentle" to one another, either.

The only reason an invader (pick any continent and any time period) is successful, is because they have a tactical advantage, be it numerical superiority, tactical superiority or strategy.

 

[Drucifer]

J JAG88

The most obvious problems are

1. People who are elderly
2. People with certain health conditions
   • Cardiovascular disease
   • Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
   • Diabetes
   • Immunocompromised status
3. The fact that it poses to overwhelm the hospital system we have: We are not equipped for pandemics. I don't know what we did in the era of Smallpox, but we are not equipped for this stuff anymore.

Left out one - the idiots that get it and think it is nothing and continues to go everywhere.

 

[Marcel]

Left out one - the idiots that get it and think it is nothing and continues to go everywhere.

... buying toilet paper it seems.

 

[MiTasol]

Oh, that is a given, this will have a horrible cascade effect on the world economy, I just talked to a couple friends that hadnt been paying much attention to this since they already had their plate full with keeping business afloat, well... now they know they are going under.

You are well past test kits now, it is already spreading without control, it is what happened in Italy, they only tested people with symptoms and many people never have them, so it grows unchecked and unnoticed until it blows in your face.

Korea did make and use a lot of test kits and seems to have a grip on the situation, good for them. Same for Taiwan. That means they have a lot of cases (many mild) and low mortality rate, Italy had few tests so only tested the sick thus their mortality rate is higher as a percentage. It also seems the Italian population didnt give a damn about warnings and quarantine measures, people simply kept moving around... so now they are in lock down.

And here in Australia we have both Federal and State governments telling people they should attend things like the Grand Prix and the Royal Easter show right up until late this morning - and forcing schools that had closed because of infected students to reopen because QUOTE children only get a mild dose and it does not kill them ENDQUOTE

These morons forget that the infected child then goes home and hugs their parents and grandparents when will most likely now be infected.

If brains were gasoline they would not have enough to start a cigarette lighter

 

[Elmas]

I found toilet paper!

Situation is improving.

 

[rednev]

So who is going to the tokyo olympics ?