Coronavirus Thread

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Advice in UK is that soap and water is best, but hand sanitisers are portable, so next best.
 
MiTasol said:
Sign of the times?
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What's with the toilet paper thing? Honestly, if you have flowing water, you don't need to worry all that much, just go in the shower, turn it on and spread your cheeks. It should blast everything off just fine.

I kind of first used this when I had one of those "whole rollers" -- you know, you wipe, and wipe, and wipe, and it won't all come off. So, I stood in the shower -- it had one of those nozzles you could take off the holder, and move it around, so I put it a few inches from where the sun don't shine and blasted away. A few seconds later, I went back to find it got rid of everything the paper wouldn't.
 

It's not a scare tactic. The stats that several of us have posted have shown you otherwise.
 
Here for instance
Our clinical study showed that EBD effectiveness against IAV in mucus was extremely reduced compared to IAV in saline.
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My wife's cousin over in Germany has it now. The bad part is that he lives in the same house as my wife's 87 year old Grandmother.

Also, although 53% of my company is able to work from home, there are many that have to go to work. One of the guys that does has tested positive. The whole building was sanitized this weekend while his coworkers were off.
 
vikingBerserker said:
If in the end it turns out to be much ado about nothing, I'm going to be seriousyly p*ssed.
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This reminds me a story of a lady in Oklahoma who really did not understand the difference between a Tornado Watch and a Tornado Warning. When a Tornado Watch was issued she would go down into her basement with a portable radio and a flashlight and wait until it was over. After several such instances, she began to call the weather bureau each time and complain that she had been frightened and forced to sit in her basement with no reason, but she kept taking the same precautions.

Then one day there was Tornado Watch, and as she sat in her basement a tornado struck her home and destroyed it. Unharmed, she pushed her way up out of the debris, went to a neighbor's home, called the weather bureau, and said, "Well, dammit, that's more like it!"

So I guess some people will feel better if they catch the disease.
 
A word of caution involving zinc. Several people here, including myself have posted that zinc appears to be helpful for Covid19 patients. From what I read the half life of zinc in the human body is 280 days.
What this means is a little zinc good, huge doses bad. This is not a if a little is good then alot is better situation. A single low dose supplement is probably ideal.
The potential for Zinc toxisity exists for large doses taken for an extended period of time. Vitamin D extremely large doses can be hard on the liver.
It's probably ok to take a sumwhat larger dose for a few weeks if one actually does get sick. I'm gonna do some research later and see if I can find the dose they were using to good affect in South Korea. Have to head off to work right now.
Hope this helps.
 
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I am sat in the hotel where i work waiting for my manager to finish a conference call with head office and the other hotels in the group.

Dont know yet if were closing or staying open.
Dont know if employment being terminated or job being kept with government assistance.

Very worrying.
 
Marcel said:
Have you looked at Italy and Spain?
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Since I posted that I had Italy but not Spain. Between October 2019 and January 23rd 2020 there were 2,768,000 confirmed cases of the flu in Italy. In the 2nd week of January there were 488,000 new confirmed cases in that week alone, however there were only 240 deaths associated with it.

Source: https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week

In the US, the CDC estimates that almost 31,000,000 Americans got the flu with 210,000 to 370,000 people requiring hospitalization with 34,200 expecting to die.

Source: This Is How Many People Die From the Flu Each Year

My biggest concern is this being blown out of proportion? 50k causes of Corona viruses is on the verge of shutting down the Italian Medical system that handled almost new 500k causes of the flu in one week and was already handling the ones from the prior weeks?

I'm a nerd so pretty big on facts and data and it seams emotions are driving the narative more than data. Reglardess, I feel for the people having to deal with this and regardless of the infection or death rates of this vs the fly, it still is tragic for those having to bury loved ones.
 
Seems to me you are choosing the facts you like.
 
Using the current estimate of about 1.5% fatality rate, and the estimated 0.1% fatality rate of the flu that killed about 34,000 people in the US last year, we should expect at least 500,000 deaths in the US.
 
michael rauls said:
I keep hearing healthcare professionals say that hand washing with soap and water for at least 30 seconds is supperior to alcohol based hand sanitizer for this.
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full agree, but all start from the MiTasol words:
"You need to active hand scrub for four minutes with the best hand sanitizers or thirty seconds with saline. Yes the testing was done with influenza A but that was, until now, the most contagious virus known.
We carry a 2 litre spray bottle of saline (water with salt added) with us and a stash of hand toweling. Slightly messy but a damned site better than hand sanitizer"

where he claim that saline is a better sanitizers of alcohol based sanitizers
 
DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
It's not a scare tactic. The stats that several of us have posted have shown you otherwise.
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This is not the apocalypse. Hundreds of thousands will die worldwide, and the young will comprise a very, very small percentage of them. The very young will be a vanishingly small percentage.

Did someone post the story of the caravan and the plague here? I read it somewhere. It is very pertinent.

I'm not so young, I fall between the young and the high risk groups. The virus might kill me! If it doesn't something else will, sooner or later, hopefully later; nobody lives forever. Sic transit gloria mundi. I refuse to get caught up in the panic and hysteria and it is the noise on social media (including this forum) and our pervasive 24 hour news networks that contributes to it. I will follow current advice, limit social interaction etc. but I will continue with my life as best I can

There is a concerted campaign to force people, particularly young people to comply with current advice and restrictions. In the Midlands the case of a previously healthy 36 year old nurse, who is very gravely ill, has been used to this effect. I would wish her all the best and I hope she recovers.

I happened to see the latest statistics from the Netherlands this morning. There were 545 new infections, taking the total to 4,749. The death toll rose to 213, with victims aged between 55 and 97. The average age was 82, even older than in Italy. This disease is much more lethal to older people and that is why younger people should be following the rules.
 
This might make interesting reading. MITRE is a not-for-profit company that runs Federally-funded Research and Development Centers in the U.S. that span national security, homeland security, healthcare and more. The paper was authored by people with deep domain expertise, many of whom have worked previous epidemics/pandemics. They are not "selling" anything and the organization is not prone to exaggeration - MITRE's mantra is to work in the public interest.

https://www.mitre.org/sites/default/files/publications/COVID-19_MITRE_Action_Paper_March-2020.pdf

A key observation relates to the "doubling time" it takes for the number of cases to...well, double. It is this exponential growth that is the key problem because of its potential to swamp healthcare providers. Yes, there may well be more flu victims that COVID-19 victims but the key problem is the latter group are happening all at once, in large numbers, and victims who require hospitalization represent a significant increase ontop of "routine" cases.

The challenge is not the death rate. The challenge is the need to rapidly spin up to cope with those being hospitalized. Few healthcare systems have much excess capacity and, even then, there's a need for specialized equipment (e.g. ventilators). Even just a few thousand extra intensive care patients happening all at once will strain resources to breaking point in most parts of the developed world.

The measures being adopted are all aimed at trying to slow the spread of the disease to give healthcare providers more time to cope with the influx: 200 people arriving over 2 weeks is much easier to deal with than 200 people in one night. It's a simple capacity problem.
 
I think it is obvious this is not blown out of proportion. The stats only show confirmed cases. The authorities estimate the actual numbers are closer 10+ times, because we cannot sufficiently test everyone.

One has to understand how to look at the numbers, and interpret what they mean.
If 1% require intensive care, our healthcare system breaks. Doctors are warning this will happen in the next two weeks. Once that happens, the fatality rates will increase because we do not have the ventilators and capacity to treat. Hospitals will be performing triage.

We are Italy number two because we did not take this serious early enough when we should have.
 

Stona you are purposely ignoring the point. It has nothing to do with death rates. It does not matter if the young die or not. As more and more people get sick, regardless of age, our hospitals and resources become overwhelmed. We only have so many ventilators, and ICU's. Once this happens death rates will increase across all age groups because we cannot simply treat everyone.

Young people need to realize they are just as susceptible to severe symptoms and take precautions.
 
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