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Drgondog, interesting scenario's.
But I beg to differ on the following:
1) Japan was essentially a light infantry military. Japan also had serious logistics issues that were marginal even in the best of events. I wouldnt give to much credence to the possibility of them expanding to far beyond what they attained in early 1942. As for India.... well, forget about supplying the troops in such a campaign by land routes, as they didnt exist. It would have to be done by shipping, of which they didnt have. I also give them zero capacity to defeat the Russians without taking massive losses.
Syscom - I don't really take exception to your points.. I would add the following. Without our interference the Japs did have shipping - whether it would sustain a bitterly fought campaign in India is of course pure speculation on my part. As to expanding beyond what they had in 1942 - what forces were available to stop them? Britain would be foolish trying to continue fighting against the Japs when they had a much bigger prob 26 miles away?
As to taking Manchuria and Siberia in the scenario of Germany threatening to win on the West, USSR putting everything they had to Stalingrad and keeping Germany out of the oilfields? what did USSR have in the way of reserves to whack Japan in 1942.. remeber in my speculation I suspected Japan would go Manchuria rather than India and the supply issue far easier there.
2) Japanese attacks in SE Asia would draw the US into the war simply by the Philipines being in the area.
This is all about US staying out of war so for sake of boundary conditions stipulate that they don't attack Pearl Harbor or Phillipines early. I fully realize that failing to take Phillipines is unrealistist war plan but otherwise this thread is stupid.
3) The UK could have controlled the submarine threat to a managable level by use of long range aircraft and more capable escorts.
I Don't believe that to be true but my opinion only - it was extremely iffy even with our full and enthusiastic support in the Atlantic..and only evened out in 1943. Where does Britain's capacity to build warships and replace supply ships reach a breaking point to replace what is sunk? How are they going to stop the U-Boat build up - and the question of control has only a binary outcome. Either Britain gets enough supplies and manpower from Commonwealth to sustain their own pressure or the situation goes the other way. My guess is that they don't have the naval assets w/o US to prevail against U-Boat constiction past critical point.
4) The US would have developed the atomic bomb anyway.
"Of Great Britain, oh well, i do not bother that much; After the fast and easy sinking of both HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Repulse, followed by the fall of Singapore the next year, British attempts in the Far East were timid and of little significance, if any; the tough work in the PTO was carried out by the U.S."
The sinking of two ships and loss of a colony instantly puts Britain at the bottom of the league tables - with that logic the U.S.A had no chance after Pearl Harbour.
The PTO was run by the U.S, but the CBI (Where more Japanese fought.) was run by the British Commonwealth and Chinese. The two theatres go hand in hand; and it was an Allied effort for victory.
What was crucial in the PTO is that the Commonwealth and China kept large Japanese assest from being deployed to resist the US thrust from Austrailia straight to Japan. It was necessary and the US was in no position to engage in large numbers in CBI and still build up for SW and South Pacific thrusts.
Without the Royal Navy, the U.S would not have a chance in Europe. Their navy, while large, was not large enough to take on Japan, Germany and Italy. The USN was largely dealing with the IJN, while the Royal Navy dealt with Germany and Italy.
I would agree we couldn't go it alone in Europe, would disagree that Royal Navy could go it alone and control Atlantic w/o USN presence - at least with respect to U-Boat threat.. which was an all day lunch for the US and GB combined. Do you have a scenario in which GB survives zero US support in Atlantic? (USN and Merchant Marine) or land bases in Greenland and Iceland?
I would tend to say without a focused and dedicated effort by Canada, GB and US - the Germans win the battle of the Atlantic - do you disagree?
Why do people choose to forget areas of the war to bolster... something... in their own mind.
No one is disputing the industrial capacity that the US provided.
I agree with you that the allies could not have done it without the US but I am a firm believe the US could not have done it alone either. That is my arguement here.
If you really want to be technical. Germany sealed her fate when she invaded to the East.
Interesting. I have my doubts Japan would do that again as it would have meant yet another country to go to war with. One which had already defeated the Japs a couple years sooner.remeber in my speculation I suspected Japan would go Manchuria rather than India and the supply issue far easier there.
.....
Effectively and decisively destroy the war navy -also badly hitting the merchant navy- of a Power that is an Island, and you have a completely defeated nation. Whatever ground forces such enemy might have overseas are of truly little significance -if any- when the naval means of such nation have been destroyed or hit in the type of level inflicted by the U.S. Navy to the IJN.
The real issue here should be that given the status of things in Europe in the early 1940s, it was Great Britain who needed the U.S.A. and not vice-versa. They needed the help of the U.S. for the very simple and pristine reason Germany was an enemy to tough and too powerful to deal with all by themselves. The Heer was not an enemy, it was THE enemy. British/Commonwealth army forces were decisively routed and/or defeated by the Heer wherever they clashed until Al-Alamein.
PERIOD.
It was Good Guy Churchill who wept like a junior high school girl at Roosevelt´s balcony.
The thing came first in the form of material aid: the loan of 50 four-stacked destroyers, later on with the full entrance of the U.S. into the war, commencing with the assembly of the 8th Air Force during the summer of 1942.
It is senseless to try to infere whether the U.S. could deal with Germany all by itself; again, it is just too simple: the American fellows were never in such position to even consider the thought of seriously formulating such type of questions. A great white has no concers whatsoever of what occurs in the mainland. Great Britain? oh hell yeah, you bet they were in such position and the conclusion should have been clear: alone we can not.
For the USA it was like I am the Atlantic Ocean away from such mess, enjoying this beautiful land with its mountains, deserts and gorgeous coastlines, oh well, we do not yet fully recover from the great depression, but things are to some extent bearable over here.
Now...if we think of the ~35,000 troops and their war equipment (2nd armored, 3rd and 9th infantry) transported directly from the U.S. that were part of the Western Task Force for Operation Torch, i do believe we can confirm the U.S. Navy in the Atlantic was more than capable of handling business.
Now, one of the Dragon´s questions -and response given-:
"4.) Even if Britain holds out, without external sources of supply and material that came from US, would they have enough will and assets to deploy a successful expedition to pressure Nazi Germany from the West? Doubtful, and without that ability would have no say in post war Europe political structure."
Great Britain does not hold out in the absence of U.S. support. Not in the short run, much less in the long distance. The UK shares this critical similarity with the U.S.A.: chalking up the dead is a truly sensitive issue. Only the bolshevik regime could afford that sort of luxury. Without the U.S.A. Great Britain would never embark on anything such as a definitive push -much less after the Dieppe massacre-.
The response -was there really any?- of the Royal Navy to the needs and urgencies of the Empire in the Far East after the sinking of the capital ships of Force Z and the subsequent surrender of Singapore should operate as clear indication the global situation was more than beyond the miliary possibilities of Great Britain.
After getting uglily mauled and battered at Pearl Harbor, the U.S.A. attained what i´d dare calling more than a come back, and completely gutted and devastated that part which constituted Japan´s fundamental and fibrous central part: its War Navy.
The Japanese had much in common with Britain in context of a.) being a net importer of critical war materials and b.) being wholly dependent on their Navy to secure those assets to continue war fighting
Effectively and decisively destroy the war navy -also badly hitting the merchant navy- of a Power that is an Island, and you have a completely defeated nation. Whatever ground forces such enemy might have overseas are of truly little significance -if any- when the naval means of such nation have been destroyed or hit in the type of level inflicted by the U.S. Navy to the IJN.
At the end of the day the Japanese were reduced to existence on what they had on hand only on the home islands and no ability to expand resistance ability beyond what existed on the islands. Nothing in China, Formosa, Korea or Viet Nam could help - ditto in my opinion for Britain if U-Boat campaign ultimately successful - no way for Commonwealth to flow to Britain to help
If Japan gains India (which was possible) then there's only garrison troops required for the continent; the Japanese forces in the area would be reduced and they, possibly, would have used allied [to them] Indian troops as garrison.
Then there's the Chinese theatre in which most Japanese soldiers did fight. A victory in India provides a southern attack route into China, which has the potential to crush Chinese resistance - not that it's a 100% certainty, none of this is.
A victory in China opens up land routes into Burma and India - this vision of 'no land routes' is bizarre, and plain....thout Allied interference the Japanese would have more chance to develop overland routes.
As for the 'evidence' of the CBI being a drain on the U.S resources - where's the evidence? .....in the CBI had no potential bases in the PTO - unless you want to propose flying C-47s, C-46s and P-38s all from Carriers and Henderson field.
Have you just stated that the loss of 275,000 men captured in Tunisia did not affect Germany - plus those captured and killed during the North Africa campaigns?
So, now, the British have achieved a stalemate in India and victory in North Africa. So, what happens when British soldiers set foot on Italy? Italian reputation proves true and they turn ?
You called Italy and North Africa a side-show also, that implies that those theatres were not required in the war. Do not chop and change between the actual events and your hypothetical war at will to hide your true feelings, sys.
If the British Commonwealth has the power and capability to defeat Germany in North Africa, it has the power to deal the blow anywhere. Do not bother talking about losses affecting British moral; Britain was dealt over a million deaths in World War II - and we proved in World War I that we'd fight to the bitter end. .....
LOL!!! The BPF in 1945 was a fraction of the size of the USN in the Pacific!!!!!!! I don't want you to muddy the waters of saying "we had the last shots of the war". The Aussies contributed far more to the fight FOR WHEN IT COUNTED… IN 1942!!!!On the U.S and ANZAC only in the PTO - can I remind you of the British Pacific Fleet - the largest deployment of Royal Navy vessels in history. The BPF was in Operation Meridian and supported the attack on Okinawa, where they bore a large portion of kamikaze attacks - as well as other operations. The last naval action of World War II was that of the BPF on V-J day, and the last British BB to fire in action was HMS King George V when it bombarded naval installations at Hammamatsu, near Tokyo.
Why do you conveninetly ignore the fact that placing troops into the SW and Central Pacific means you have to supply them with everything. Go ahead and put 50,000 men on a single island that's 1 square mile. How are you going to supply them when the shipping lanes are cut? And woe to them when the fight starts and the USN and AAF has a target rich enviornment! The fact that the US reluctantly supllied that theater is an indication even the "brass" in washington knew it wasn't the key to victory.The CBI was not a side-show, the Japanese needed pressuring from all sides. You seem to forget the oil fields of Burma, China and India - the only reason the Japanese were there. If Britian was not pressuring Japanese supply in the CBI then they would have been well supplied in the region, and surplus for the PTO.
The USN would have had put more pressure on Japanese shipping, and would have had to deal with an increased number of Japanese soldiers fighting on those key islands - had the CBI collapse in Japanese victory, then this would have happened.
Democracies can only tolerate long bloody wars for so long. This is a global industrial war were talking about. And you only have a short time to win victory, as either the Russians are going to win it, or there will be peace between the two countries and you will have to defeat and even larger and FAR MORE capable foe.What history have you been reading? Wars can go on for hundreds of years, World War II was a short war in comparison to some in the past. And you haven't provided facts, you've just been waving the flag !
Noone is unbeatable. But some countries are far more less likely to be defeated easily.You seem to believe that Germany was an invincible power; there's no such thing. As long as the British Empire was still pumping, Germany's defeat was coming when it began to over-stretch itself or just be simply out-produced - which was already happening in the real war.
It takes decades to build up industrial power. Could the empire eventually built up an industrial base to take on germnay alone? Yes. In only a few years? Nope. While simultaneously fighting the war and expanding the industry? Nope.This is the problem, I've said before, you are basing your ideas on what happened - when the Commonwealth accepted the U.S industrial strength as the best option instead of gearing up themselves. This does not mean that the Empire couldn't have geared up itself, if you compare the German industrial base to that of the British Empire - the German industrial machine is dwarved.
As events proved in Normandy, the German army was very deadly, and would have stopped the commonwealt forces cold. But in 1944, since the Russians had proved they were capable of defeating German forces, I'd say they had a better chance of reaching the Rhine than the BA.There's no evidence to back up that the Soviets would make it to the Rhine, sys. Before 1940, there was no evidence that Germany would achieve victory in France. There's no evidence that Britain would not have been able to land in France in 1944.
And youre saying Stalin will be so magnaminious?If the Soviets defeat Germany then Germany is beaten, by accepting that point, you've accepted my argument. If the Russians reach the Rhine and Germany collapses, then France comes back to the surface and Britain lands on the Continent in France. Since Britain would already be Italy, and then in France...we can hope that the Soviet Union stops at the Rhine (kind of like how the Allies hoped that the Soviet Union would stop in Germany after the REAL war). Then Britain has saved Italy, Spain, Portugal, France and Portugal ... most of Western Europe.
By calling all those theatres in which Britain (without the U.S) fought a side-show you're claiming that the U.S could have won on its own.
The fact of the matter is if Britain fell, so would North Africa and the Middle-East. The U.S.A would not be able to operate offensive actions against all three Axis navies, ....under the pressure from a well-supplied and backed up German force. The U.S might have ended up over-whelming the Axis powers after some time.
If the U.S.A did not get involved, the Soviet Union would be able to hold up German advances long after passing through Moscow (if that did happen) - ......
Syscom,
I ask you what is the true point of this thread you made.....if you claim it is not to minimize UK Commonwealth efforts or just plain flag waving by you.
Its not educational......its insulting. Syscom you are a smart guy but your total unwavering bias opinion gets sickening/insulting/boring at times. If you tried displaying a more balanced opinion once in a while maybe people would get along with you better here. But then again maybe that is your intent......just to annoy people so they will argue with you. Sad really that you have to try to say something controversial just to get people to respond to you. Is that it? You seek people's attention? Are you a attention whore? I am really starting to believe you are.
Nowhere in this thread am I insulting the commonwealth forces.
This is what I am saying:
1) Without the US directly involved in the fight in Europe, the UK and its forces could not have defeated Germany. You would have beaten them on the peripheries, but not at the core. Russia would have decided the outcome.
2) The US single handidly defeated the Japanese. While its true the US and ANZAC forces fought splendidly in the SW Pacific and wore down the Japanese. Ultimatly it was the USN in late 1943 that was so superior to the IJN, that any threat from an untouched IJN force would have been swept aside.
3) The fight in the Pacific was a maritime battle. Anything in China or Burma meant nothing. When the US secured the Mariana's, the war was lost for the Japanese. No matter how many forces or materials they had south of Formosa, it was going to be subject to an ever increasing interdiction of their transportation routes.
4) The industrial capacity of the US is what kept the Commonwealth forces on the sustained offensive.
5) The commonwealth didnt have the industrial and manpower base.
6) Show me where I said the US could beat Germany by itself.
Bill,
I am surprised you are getting involved in this "chat" with Syscom, all he is trying to do is minimize what UK and Commonwealth did in WW2, nice way to treat your most powerful Allies. Yes that is what he is trying to do, just look at the title of thread.....thats insulting enough.
Hunter I assure you I do not denigrate the UK, the Commonwealth or the USSR in the ALLIED effort to defeat the Axis. As I look through my own postings I thought I was clear about that but obviously not if you had a different impression
QUOTE]
I took the thread question seriously however because it made me think about my own opinion of how the war could have ended, politically speaking, for Europe.
THE major contribution the US made early in the war, which could have tipped the balance, was to get involved in defeating the U-Boat threat by mid 1943. So, for me the question to be asked is:
Does US complete neutrality - no Lend Lease, no war material, no fuel, no food from US shores to Britain, no training of RAF bomber and Fighter pilots - enable Germany to a.) get the upper hand in the Atlantic and b.) throttle the British Isles to point that the natural resources of the Middle East, Canada and the rest of the Commonwealth do not flow in or out of the sea lanes at a level to sustain Britain's fight against Germany? I just don't know but my opinion is No.
I do not, and never will believe the US could have prevailed against the combination of Germany AND Japan alone, nor am I sure of the outcome if USSR knocked out in 1942 and only Brits and Commonwealth are primary allies. It would depend on the conditions of a Germany/USSR truce in my mind.
Source of Oil being the key factor. If USSR knocked out in 1942 does Germany drive to Middle East once again and control the Suez?
If Britain knocked out in 1942 due to strangulation of supply chain to and from battlefield and non existent US sources - then in my opinion, either USSR or Germany prevails in Europe and Japan prevails in Pacific... while we sit and arm ourselves.
Somebody needs to convince me that Britain could defeat the U-Boat and retain control of all sea lanes absent US help. This is still the key wild card in my mind.. and BTW I am not at all sure we could defeat the U-Boat threat if we went alone either.
Do you see it otherwise?
Bill,
I am surprised you are getting involved in this "chat" with Syscom, all he is trying to do is minimize what UK and Commonwealth did in WW2, nice way to treat your most powerful Allies. Yes that is what he is trying to do, just look at the title of thread.....thats insulting enough.
Hunter I assure you I do not denigrate the UK, the Commonwealth or the USSR in the ALLIED effort to defeat the Axis. As I look through my own postings I thought I was clear about that but obviously not if you had a different impression
QUOTE]
I took the thread question seriously however because it made me think about my own opinion of how the war could have ended, politically speaking, for Europe.
THE major contribution the US made early in the war, which could have tipped the balance, was to get involved in defeating the U-Boat threat by mid 1943. So, for me the question to be asked is:
Does US complete neutrality - no Lend Lease, no war material, no fuel, no food from US shores to Britain, no training of RAF bomber and Fighter pilots - enable Germany to a.) get the upper hand in the Atlantic and b.) throttle the British Isles to point that the natural resources of the Middle East, Canada and the rest of the Commonwealth do not flow in or out of the sea lanes at a level to sustain Britain's fight against Germany? I just don't know but my opinion is No.
I do not, and never will believe the US could have prevailed against the combination of Germany AND Japan alone, nor am I sure of the outcome if USSR knocked out in 1942 and only Brits and Commonwealth are primary allies. It would depend on the conditions of a Germany/USSR truce in my mind.
Source of Oil being the key factor. If USSR knocked out in 1942 does Germany drive to Middle East once again and control the Suez?
If Britain knocked out in 1942 due to strangulation of supply chain to and from battlefield and non existent US sources - then in my opinion, either USSR or Germany prevails in Europe and Japan prevails in Pacific... while we sit and arm ourselves.
Somebody needs to convince me that Britain could defeat the U-Boat and retain control of all sea lanes absent US help. This is still the key wild card in my mind.. and BTW I am not at all sure we could defeat the U-Boat threat if we went alone either.
Do you see it otherwise?
See when a person puts it like that it is not bad......but Syscom posts very differently. You put it as a question or debate, non confrontational. Sorry Bill at first I thought you were trying to back up Syscom and his point which I saw as being confrontational. Sorry that I questioned your intent, I see that it is slightly different then Syscom's.
Syscom likes to confront people, put it in their face, devalue other countries contributions while boasting about what USA did without everyone else's help.
That gets old.
Syscom:
Hunter:
The thread title as presented by Syscom is a question; i read a question mark there and a question leaves some doors opened for discussion, some might respond in a direction, some others will respond in a different one. I see no intention to insult here; if you dislike or disagree with Syscom´s opinion that is a different issue dont you believe?