Georgia and Russia at war.

[rochie]

georgia definatly underestimated the russian reaction to them using force on south ossetia, but russia seems to be making the most of its help for its citizens in south ossetia by grabbing as much territory in georgia as it can

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Hello Flyboyj
I would not say that Georgian invasion to SO was unprovocated. How much there was provocation, i don't know. Anyway, Georgian attack was very stupid move.

If one wants info on the conflict, day by day timeline and some reasons to the slide to the war, here is one version:
2008 South Ossetia war - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Juha

Oh - both sides did "stir the pot" if you will, but the Georgians were very stupid to immediately use military force. Agree.

Good link - amazing how fast things get on Wikipedia.

 

[Ramirezzz]

There is some speculation that the Russians are trying to build a buffer zone between Ossetia and Georgia (using Georgian territory to do it).

yes, the situation looks pretty much like that.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

yes, the situation looks pretty much like that.

And in all honesty I can't blame them (Russia) for doing so. The price that will be paid for stupidity.

 

[Erich]

sadly correct Joe, Russia will crush the opposition as it has to, to save it's face, no matter what the US or the rest of the world does or cares and makes silly comments as to whether Russia is in the right or wrong ...........

 

[davparlr]

There is a concern that Russia will depose of the democracy and install a puppet government. This would be very dangerous. Ukraine could be next. I am sure that NATO will be pressured to quickly accept Ukraine. Had NATO accepted Georgia, Russia would likely not have invaded Georgia.

 

[Matt308]

Well as I said, based upon what limited information I have, I believe the US would have acted similarly. What is most suprising is how our Forum members have been so quick to villify the US in this situation. That is disheartening. And VERY telling.

Now, having said that, let's see how russia mops up their action. Latest I heard was that they were implying a scorched earth policy for T'bilisi, warning citizens to evacuate as they pushed towards the city, and indicating bombing/shelling was on its way. Hopefully that was nothing more than propaganda to minimize casualties. Can russia police this effort or will they use this opportunity to install a puppet gov't and assume control of the Georgian lands like past Soviet expansions?

And with respect to Ukraine and the insertion into NATO. In my opinion, this is NOT the time for NATO to accept Ukraine, and I suspect that the European nations would never allow Ukraine entrance given the volatility that would inject into the situation. The bear is pissed off. You don't poke him in the eye while he's pissed. Besides, there is too much Western monies tied up in russian ventures. Wouldn't want to jeopardize western monies over proper ideals now would we.

 

[JugBR]

There is a concern that Russia will depose of the democracy and install a puppet government. This would be very dangerous. Ukraine could be next. I am sure that NATO will be pressured to quickly accept Ukraine. Had NATO accepted Georgia, Russia would likely not have invaded Georgia.

if georgia shouldnt attacket the people of the s. ossetia privince... maybe...

i think its time that we make a chronology of the happends.

day 7 - whats happened...
day 8 - whats happened...
day 9 ||
day 10 - ||
.
.
.

 

[Milos Sijacki]

Adler, ignore that ''HATE'' thing I said earlier, and I'm reading posts.

 

[Kruska]

Not quite,

South Ossetia is recognized by the United Nations as part of Georgia. As such Russian forces have no right at all to intervene on behalf of South Ossetia, unless such a move would be sanctioned by the UN. Moving Russian troops into SO and even attacking Georgian forces is an open act of war by Russia against Georgia.

The SO conflict needs to be solved by the UN and as such it was indeed very unwise for the Georgian Government to order a military action against a separatist movement in its own country.

Maybe the Georgians should not have listened too much to the Blackwater boys and other "unofficial" US support, who obviously totally underestimated the reaction of the "sleepy bear". or even deliberately used the Georgians as Guinea Pigs??

Regards
Kruska

 

[Milos Sijacki]

When I said those things in my post, Adler, I was objective and I'm not showing my true colors for I never will show them to anyone, because if I do, especially in my country at the moment, I will be exposed to large amounts of hatred.

Maybe I am emptional about certain things but that is what kind of a person I am in my everyday life and I blame 7 years of lost childhood due to psychological torment that I endured in primary school. But that is past, I have many people to hate, with a DAMN good reason, but I forgive them.


I have also read all other posts and I'm not pointing fingers at anyone but I think that Georgians started this whole thing and that Russians can do whatever they want for they are far superior.

VAE VICTUS as Julius said. That is all I can do.

 

[Milos Sijacki]

Kruska, I agree with you, especially with Your last lines.

 

[stasoid]

You see, sometimes there is no time to seek UN's approval. Georgia's army advace was quick and ferocious. They shelled the city for several hours in a row destroing 90% of its buildings and killing few thousands of its inhabitants. Russia's response was swift and justifyed in that situation.

Saddam Hussein killed several thousands of his people (Kurds) with gas and was later hanged up for doing that.
Saakashvili killed several thousands of his people (Ossetians) overnight with an artillery barrage and he is still alive, giving interviews on CNN.
Interesting, isnt it?

 

[Milos Sijacki]

Yes it is interesting, but I don't want judge for it seems that I'm bad at it.

 

[JugBR]

Not quite,

South Ossetia is recognized by the United Nations as part of Georgia. As such Russian forces have no right at all to intervene on behalf of South Ossetia, unless such a move would be sanctioned by the UN. Moving Russian troops into SO and even attacking Georgian forces is an open act of war by Russia against Georgia.

The SO conflict needs to be solved by the UN and as such it was indeed very unwise for the Georgian Government to order a military action against a separatist movement in its own country.

Maybe the Georgians should not have listened too much to the Blackwater boys and other "unofficial" US support, who obviously totally underestimated the reaction of the "sleepy bear". or even deliberately used the Georgians as Guinea Pigs??

Regards
Kruska

welcome back kurska ! yes, S.O. is really recognized by UN as part of georgia. and i´m totally agree with you. BUT, since some time ago, the UN opinion´s about foeign interventions appears to be totally insignificant.

seems like people says the UN is a band of CORRUPT, LIARS, SURRENDER MONKEYS, WEASELS... so, who cares about what thinks UN loosers ? you know ?

also, a bad example generates another bad examples !

also, acording our russian friends, seems like the UN wasnt so much motivated to look for the situation of S.O. like they was for kosovo. there was some negligency about recognizing the statement of S. Ossetians in dont be part of georgia.

like you i would like that the conflict in S.O. should be resolved by UN mission. but i think its not possible. now, the only person who have the power to ends that conflict is geaorgia´s president.

he must say: - i assume we attacked first, i want put a end in this war. georgia surrender and ask for russia whats the conditions that russia demands to accept our surrender.

"when attacked by a bear, the best thing to do is dont react, pretend to be dead"

man, that georgia´s president make everything wrong !!! a boy scout would be better, serious !!!

he surrender now, the war ends in next 30 min. would be fair ? i dont know, but now russia have the knife and the cheese in their hands. the georgian strategy was almost like suicide.

otherwise, he could still triyng to resist and take the bombs and everything, until this war become impopular also in russian public opinion. but i gess georgia wouldnt resist that much.

anyway, the guy, the president of georgia should think in the best solution for his people. and the best for georgians now is the peace. keep your people alive, most possible.

i think the bear is not sleeping, and also is very angry. hitler and napoleon tried to kill that bear once time ago but they didnt. it just made the bear more angry.

what some of our american and european friends of nato and european union dont see is that russia feels like hated by them. surounded by enemies. russia shouldnt see the western powers like enemys. but for somekind of pride and hipocrisy, the west is uncapable to "give a sweet for the bear", maybe fear of loose an arm... but the idea of invest more in friendly relations with russia, would be proof a great deal if adopted and also would prevent situations like that.

i should hear the opinion of ramirezzz and mitya about that, but i think the BIG MISTAKE of nato and european union was dont try to be more friendly with russians since soviet union falled in 92.

should we fear the bear ?

 

[Milos Sijacki]

Should we fear the bear? I know I do. Russia's military power scares me and fascinates me at the same time.

Just heard on the news that Russians are stopping with all military actions in Georgia. Medvedev confirmed that information stating that the agressor has been punished with both military and civilian losses. BBC and CNN confirmed this information.

It seems that the war is over for now, if the right solution to this issue is not reached.

 

[Ramirezzz]

some fresh pictures from Tshinvali, the town that practically has ceased to exist:
.Ru ,

 

[Ramirezzz]

Should we fear the bear? I know I do.

Milos that bear was the one who went to rescue Serbia in 1914, and fought side by side with Serbs many times against common enemies. That bear was the only one who took Serbia's side during NATO bombings in 1999.
I believe the bear is not the animal you should be scare of.

 

[timshatz]

Looking more and more like Russia got what it wanted and now is ending it's operations in Georgia. Nothing the Georgians can do about it. The thing looks pretty much over.

Read a good article from Ralph Peters on this one. He's got some very good points. Posting it below.


RUSSIA GOES ROGUE
By RALPH PETERS

August 12, 2008 --

IT'S impossible to overstate the importance of what's unfolding as we watch. Russia's invasion of Georgia - a calculated, unprovoked aggression - is a crisis that may have more important strategic implications than Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

We're seeing the emergence of a rogue military power with a nuclear arsenal.

The response of our own government has been pathetic - and our media's uncritical acceptance of Moscow's version of events is infuriating.

This is the "new" Russia announcing - in blood - that it won't tolerate freedom and self-determination along its borders. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is putting it bluntly: Today, Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine (and the Baltic states had better pay attention).

Georgia's affiliation with the European Union, its status as a would-be NATO member, its working democracy - none of it deterred Putin.

Nor does Putin's ambition stop with the former Soviet territories. His air force has been trying (unsuccessfully) to hit the new gas pipeline running from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean. The Kremlin is telling Europe: We not only have the power to turn off Siberian gas, we can turn off every tap in the region, any time we choose.

Let's be clear: For all that US commentators and diplomats are still chattering about Russia's "response" to Georgia's actions, the Kremlin spent months planning and preparing this operation. Any soldier above the grade of private can tell you that there's absolutely no way Moscow could've launched this huge ground, air and sea offensive in an instantaneous "response" to alleged Georgian actions.

As I pointed out Saturday, even to get one armored brigade over the Caucasus Mountains required extensive preparations. Since then, Russia has sent in the equivalent of almost two divisions - not only in South Ossetia, the scene of the original fighting, but also in separatist Abkhazia on the Black Sea coast.

The Russians also managed to arrange the instant appearance of a squadron of warships to blockade Georgia. And they launched hundreds of air strikes against preplanned targets.

Every one of these things required careful preparations. In the words of one US officer, "Just to line up the airlift sorties would've taken weeks."

Working through their mercenaries in South Ossetia, Russia staged brutal provocations against Georgia from late July onward. Last Thursday, Georgia's president finally had to act to defend his own people.

But when the mouse stirred, the cat pounced.

The Russians know that we know this was a setup. But Moscow's Big Lie propagandists still blame Georgia - even as Russian aircraft bomb Georgian homes and Russian troops seize the vital city of Gori in the country's heart. And Russian troops also grabbed the Georgian city of Zugdidi to the west - invading from Abkhazia on a second axis.

Make no mistake: Moscow intends to dismember Georgia.

This is the most cynical military operation by a "European" power since Moscow invaded Afghanistan in 1979. (Sad to say, President Bush seems as bewildered now as President Jimmy Carter did then.)

This attack's worse, though. Georgia is an independent, functioning democracy tied to the European Union and striving to join NATO. It also has backed our Iraq efforts with 2,000 troops. (We're airlifting them back home.)

This invasion recalls Hitler's march into Czechoslovakia - to protect ethnic Germans, he claimed, just as Putin claims to be protecting Russian citizens - complete BS.

It also resembles Hitler's invasion of Poland - with the difference that, in September '39, European democracies drew the line. (To France's credit, its leaders abandoned their August vacations to call Putin out - only Sen. Barack Obama remains on the beach.)

Yet our media give Putin the benefit of the doubt. Not one major news outlet even bothers to take issue with Putin's wild claim that the Georgians were engaged in genocide.

I lack sufficiently powerful words to express my outrage over Russia's bloody cynicism in attacking a small, free people, or to castigate our media for their inane coverage - or to condemn our own government's shameful flight from responsibility.

Just as Moscow has reverted to its old habit of sending in tanks to snuff out freedom, Washington has defaulted to form by abandoning Georgia to the invasion - after encouraging Georgia to stand up to the Kremlin.

Reminds me of 1956, when we encouraged the Hungarians to defy Moscow - then abandoned them. And of 1991, when we prodded Iraq's Shia to rise up against Saddam - then abandoned them. We've called Georgia a "friend and ally." Well, honorable men and states stand by their friends and allies. We haven't.

Oh, we sure are giving those Russians a tongue-lashing. I'll bet Putin's just shaking as he faces the awesome verbal rage of Condi Rice. President Bush? He went to a basketball game.

The only decent thing we've done was to reveal, at the UN, that the Russians tried to cut a deal with us to remove Georgia's president.

Shame on us.

Ralph Peters' latest book, "Looking for Trouble," details his own adventures in Georgia.

THE BEAR'S MILITARY MESS

Russia's military is succeeding in its invasion of Georgia, but only because Moscow has applied overwhelming force.

This campaign was supposed to be the big debut for the Kremlin's revitalized armed forces (funded by the country's new petro-wealth). Well, the new Russian military looks a lot like the old Russian military: slovenly and not ready for prime time.

It can hammer tiny Georgia into submission - but this campaign unintentionally reveals plenty of enduring Russian weaknesses.

The most visible failings are those of the air force. Flying Moscow's latest ground-attack jets armed with the country's newest precision weapons, pilots are missing far more targets than they're hitting.

All those strikes on civilian apartment buildings and other nonmilitary targets? Some may be intentional (the Russians aren't above terror-bombing), but most are just the result of ill-trained pilots flying scared.

They're missing pipelines, rail lines and oil-storage facilities - just dumping their bombs as quickly as they can and heading home.

Russia's also losing aircraft. The Kremlin admits two were shot down; the Georgians claimed they'd downed a dozen by Sunday. Split the difference, and you have seven or more Russian aircraft knocked out of the sky by a tiny enemy. Compare that to US Air Force losses - statistically zero - in combat in all of our wars since Desert Storm.

As one US officer observed to me, the Russian pilots are neither professionally nor emotionally toughened for their missions. Their equipment's pretty good (not as good as ours), but their training lags - and their pilots log far fewer flight hours than ours do.

Russia has been planning and organizing this invasion for months. And they're pulling it off - but the military's embarrassing blunders must be infuriating Prime Minister Putin.

 

[Milos Sijacki]

Ramirezz, I fear the might, what it can do. We are friends and I'm a big fan of Russian military, especially airplanes and tanks.

Cheers

We are thankful for the historical help.